Core Viewpoint - The key technological variable driving the current "Google Chain" explosion is the comprehensive introduction of OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) technology, which allows for direct data transmission via physical optical paths, eliminating the "optical-electrical-optical" signal conversion process [1][3][10]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - Google has integrated its self-developed TPU chips with OCS technology, overcoming traditional data center efficiency and scalability bottlenecks, and establishing a new architectural standard for the next generation of intelligent computing networks [3][4]. - The deep coupling of TPU and OCS supports the efficient iteration of large models like Gemini and drives increased demand in the upstream optical module, MEMS chip, and optical device sectors [3][10]. - The upcoming TPU v7 (Ironwood) has achieved a qualitative leap in performance, with a single chip computing capability over ten times that of the previous generation TPU v5p, and a peak bandwidth of 7.4 TB/s [6]. Group 2: Market Impact - By 2026, Google’s TPU is expected to dominate the global self-developed ASIC market, with shipment volumes projected to significantly exceed competitors like AWS Trainium and Microsoft Maia [8]. - The introduction of OCS technology has led to a 30% increase in network throughput, a 40% reduction in power consumption, and a 50-fold decrease in network downtime, while also reducing capital expenditures by 30% [13]. Group 3: OCS Technology and Its Implications - OCS technology is crucial for addressing the power consumption and efficiency challenges posed by large-scale expansions in data centers, as traditional architectures are becoming ineffective [10][11]. - Google’s OCS system, based on MEMS technology, features 136 optical channels, allowing for millisecond-level optical path switching without the need for electrical signal conversion [15]. - The rise of OCS technology is expected to create new incremental segments in the optical communication industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2024 to 2029 [19].

Core Insights - Google is building a unique computing power moat through "full-stack" innovations from chips to networks amid an escalating AI arms race [1] - The introduction of OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) technology is a key variable driving the current "Google Chain" explosion, enabling breakthroughs in energy efficiency and scalability for data centers [1][8] - The deep integration of self-developed TPU chips with OCS technology supports efficient iterations of large models like Gemini and drives demand in the upstream optical module and MEMS chip industries [1][3] Group 1: TPU and OCS Integration - Google has established a moat around its AI capabilities by integrating chips (TPU), networks (OCS), models (Gemini), and applications (cloud computing/search/advertising) [3] - The upcoming TPU v7 ("Ironwood") has achieved a tenfold increase in single-chip computing power compared to the previous TPU v5p, with a peak bandwidth of 7.4 TB/s [4] - The Ironwood architecture allows for dynamic combinations of multiple "4×4×4" cube blocks, enabling cluster scalability up to 9,216 chips [4] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Chain - By 2026, Google’s TPU is expected to dominate the global self-developed ASIC market, with shipment volumes projected to exceed competitors like AWS Trainium and Microsoft Maia [6] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is anticipated to be revised upwards to over 20 million units by 2026, driven by both NVIDIA's GB200 and Google's TPU v7 [6] Group 3: OCS Technology Advantages - The introduction of OCS technology addresses power consumption and efficiency challenges associated with large-scale data center expansions, moving away from traditional electrical switching bottlenecks [8] - OCS technology has led to a 30% increase in network throughput, a 40% reduction in power consumption, and a 50-fold decrease in network downtime, while also reducing capital expenditures by 30% [11] Group 4: OCS Components and Innovations - Google’s Palomar OCS utilizes MEMS technology with 136 optical channels, allowing for millisecond-level optical switching without the need for electrical signal conversion [14] - The custom optical modules include circulators for bidirectional transmission, reducing the number of required ports and cables by 40% compared to traditional architectures [15] - The rise of OCS technology is expected to create new growth segments in the optical communication industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2024 to 2029 [17]

Core Insights - The report highlights Google's comprehensive AI stack advantage, which includes chips (TPU), networks (OCS), models (Gemini), and applications (cloud computing/search/advertising), indicating a significant potential for capital expenditure increase [3] - Google's capital expenditure for 2025 has been raised to between 91 billion and 93 billion, with expectations for continued growth in 2026, reflecting a strong demand for AI capabilities and hardware innovation [3] - The Gemini model has surpassed 650 million monthly active users, with token processing volume increasing over 20 times within a year, showcasing robust growth in Google's cloud revenue and order backlog driven by AI [3] Summary by Sections AI Data Center and OCS Technology - OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) technology is crucial for AI data centers, providing advantages such as reduced latency and energy consumption by directly transmitting data using optical signals, which is essential for large-scale AI computing needs [4] - Traditional data center architectures face challenges in power consumption and cost, while OCS offers a key solution for dynamic computing demands through server decoupling and efficient long-distance signal transmission [4] Google TPU and OCS Market Outlook - Google's TPU shipments are expected to increase, with the introduction of OCS technology enhancing network throughput by 30%, reducing power consumption by 40%, and significantly decreasing network downtime [5] - The upcoming TPU V7 Ironwood will feature 1.6T optical modules, with various suppliers poised to benefit from the OCS technology, which includes MEMS and liquid crystal solutions [5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within Google's AI computing supply chain and OCS technology innovations, highlighting key companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Changxin Bochuang, and Tengjing Technology as potential beneficiaries [6]