文 | 钛资本研究院 在算力需求爆发式增长的今天，光通信作为数据传输的核心支撑，技术迭代正面临着前所未有的机遇与 挑战。电子计算的高效与光子传输的优势，本应形成完美互补，而光电转换的现实难题，让光模块成为 连接两者的关键枢纽。从硅光技术的集成理想与分离现实，到CPO的激进创新与NPO的折中探索，再到 空心光纤、MicroLED光通信等前沿技术的潜力与桎梏，一系列新技术试图突破现有瓶颈，却也陷入了 路线选择的分歧、成本与可靠性的博弈。 核心技术的发展现状、优缺点及产业格局如何？哪些技术是真突破，哪些仍停留在概念阶段，哪些路线 可能成为未来主流，又有哪些挑战亟待解决？近期，钛资本邀请公众号《LEO光通信观察》作者叶磊 Leo进行分享，Leo毕业于南京大学、渥太华大学，早年在美国的JDSU/Lumentum、Finisar(现Coherent) 负责产品研发和设计，之后在珠海光库、Oplink、Finisar、Source Photonics（索尔思）等企业负责供应 链和运营管理。对光通信产业的技术逻辑、市场方向有着深入独特的见解。主持人是钛资本半导体组、 人工智能组资深行业专家周晔。以下为分享实录： AI光模块市 ...

Core Insights - Google's new AI model performance is comparable to or exceeds ChatGPT, trained entirely on self-developed TPU chips, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] - The A-share optical module sector has seen a collective surge, with the Wind optical module index rising for three consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The AI computing power sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with market focus on the potential challenge posed by Google's TPU technology to Nvidia's GPU [1] - Investors are adopting a cautious strategy, prioritizing investments in "computing power arms dealers" that supply both tech giants, leading to strong performance in leading optical module companies [1] - In contrast, stocks related to Google's unique OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology are underperforming, indicating a market preference for suppliers with bilateral cooperation foundations during this period of uncertainty [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - As overseas AI concept trading becomes crowded, funds may gradually rotate to the undervalued domestic computing power sector, presenting potential opportunities for future investments [1] - The current market situation mirrors that of June-July, where the optical module sector surged while the domestic semiconductor sector has yet to show clear signs of a breakout [3] - Historical trends suggest that when overseas computing power supply chains become overly crowded, funds tend to shift towards the more cost-effective and underexplored domestic computing power chain [3] - On November 26, the domestic computing power sector showed signs of a rally, indicating that some investors are beginning to position themselves for future gains, highlighting the potential for the currently low-priced domestic computing power sector to attract significant attention [3]

Core Viewpoint - The key technological variable driving the current "Google Chain" explosion is the comprehensive introduction of OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) technology, which allows for direct data transmission via physical optical paths, eliminating the "optical-electrical-optical" signal conversion process [1][3][10]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - Google has integrated its self-developed TPU chips with OCS technology, overcoming traditional data center efficiency and scalability bottlenecks, and establishing a new architectural standard for the next generation of intelligent computing networks [3][4]. - The deep coupling of TPU and OCS supports the efficient iteration of large models like Gemini and drives increased demand in the upstream optical module, MEMS chip, and optical device sectors [3][10]. - The upcoming TPU v7 (Ironwood) has achieved a qualitative leap in performance, with a single chip computing capability over ten times that of the previous generation TPU v5p, and a peak bandwidth of 7.4 TB/s [6]. Group 2: Market Impact - By 2026, Google’s TPU is expected to dominate the global self-developed ASIC market, with shipment volumes projected to significantly exceed competitors like AWS Trainium and Microsoft Maia [8]. - The introduction of OCS technology has led to a 30% increase in network throughput, a 40% reduction in power consumption, and a 50-fold decrease in network downtime, while also reducing capital expenditures by 30% [13]. Group 3: OCS Technology and Its Implications - OCS technology is crucial for addressing the power consumption and efficiency challenges posed by large-scale expansions in data centers, as traditional architectures are becoming ineffective [10][11]. - Google’s OCS system, based on MEMS technology, features 136 optical channels, allowing for millisecond-level optical path switching without the need for electrical signal conversion [15]. - The rise of OCS technology is expected to create new incremental segments in the optical communication industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2024 to 2029 [19].

Core Insights - Google is building a unique computing power moat through "full-stack" innovations from chips to networks amid an escalating AI arms race [1] - The introduction of OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) technology is a key variable driving the current "Google Chain" explosion, enabling breakthroughs in energy efficiency and scalability for data centers [1][8] - The deep integration of self-developed TPU chips with OCS technology supports efficient iterations of large models like Gemini and drives demand in the upstream optical module and MEMS chip industries [1][3] Group 1: TPU and OCS Integration - Google has established a moat around its AI capabilities by integrating chips (TPU), networks (OCS), models (Gemini), and applications (cloud computing/search/advertising) [3] - The upcoming TPU v7 ("Ironwood") has achieved a tenfold increase in single-chip computing power compared to the previous TPU v5p, with a peak bandwidth of 7.4 TB/s [4] - The Ironwood architecture allows for dynamic combinations of multiple "4×4×4" cube blocks, enabling cluster scalability up to 9,216 chips [4] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Chain - By 2026, Google’s TPU is expected to dominate the global self-developed ASIC market, with shipment volumes projected to exceed competitors like AWS Trainium and Microsoft Maia [6] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is anticipated to be revised upwards to over 20 million units by 2026, driven by both NVIDIA's GB200 and Google's TPU v7 [6] Group 3: OCS Technology Advantages - The introduction of OCS technology addresses power consumption and efficiency challenges associated with large-scale data center expansions, moving away from traditional electrical switching bottlenecks [8] - OCS technology has led to a 30% increase in network throughput, a 40% reduction in power consumption, and a 50-fold decrease in network downtime, while also reducing capital expenditures by 30% [11] Group 4: OCS Components and Innovations - Google’s Palomar OCS utilizes MEMS technology with 136 optical channels, allowing for millisecond-level optical switching without the need for electrical signal conversion [14] - The custom optical modules include circulators for bidirectional transmission, reducing the number of required ports and cables by 40% compared to traditional architectures [15] - The rise of OCS technology is expected to create new growth segments in the optical communication industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2024 to 2029 [17]

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced significant volatility, with a sharp decline in Asia-Pacific markets triggered by a drop in US stocks due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, leading to lower expectations for a rate cut in December [1] - Despite Nvidia's better-than-expected Q3 performance, concerns about an AI bubble persisted, although the US stock market rebounded strongly on Friday after comments from Federal Reserve's Williams suggested there is still room for rate cuts [1] - Following Williams' remarks, the probability of a December rate cut surged to approximately 70% in the futures market, nearly doubling from less than 40% the previous day [1] Group 2 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, made significant purchases of Google’s parent company, indicating confidence in the AI sector's future [6] - The AI sector is expected to benefit from upcoming developments, including a planned executive order by President Trump to advance AI initiatives in the US [6] - High-profile investors, including Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, believe that while AI-related investments may create a bubble, there is no immediate need for investors to exit the market [6] Group 3 - Google is accelerating the research and deployment of Optical Circuit Switches (OCS), which has positively impacted related stocks in the A-share market [7] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued volatility due to emotional sell-offs, although a long-term bullish outlook is anticipated, particularly towards 2026 [7] - Some market experts continue to favor sectors such as precious metals, anticipating potential shifts in monetary policy following the end of Fed Chair Powell's term in May [8]

Core Insights - OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology shows significant advantages in data transmission, especially under the demands of large-scale AI computing and cross-regional expansion [1][2] - Companies involved in OCS development are focusing on high-value components and solutions, indicating a growing market potential [1][2] Company Summaries - **帝奥微**: Developing high-value components for OCS switches with a market cap of 44.86 billion [1] - **恒为科技**: Launched prototype products for OCS switches, with a market cap of 92.03 billion [1] - **炬光科技**: Supplies micro-lens arrays for OCS, with a market cap of 115.90 billion [1] - **英唐智控**: Plans to acquire 光隆集成, a company that provides OCS solutions, with a market cap of 118.82 billion [1] - **华懋科技**: Aims to fully acquire 富创优越, which has OCS components, with a market cap of 159.04 billion [1] - **凌云光**: Acts as an agent for Huber+Suhner/Polatis in China, providing OCS products suitable for large data centers, with a market cap of 167.57 billion [1] - **太辰光**: Produces optical passive devices for OCS, with a market cap of 175.43 billion [1] - **德科立**: Collaborating with iPronics on OCS waveguide solutions, with a market cap of 175.90 billion [1] - **赛微电子**: First in the industry to achieve MEMS-OCS crossbar arrays on 8-inch wafers, with a market cap of 181.03 billion [1] - **腾景科技**: Supplies optical components for OCS, with a market cap of 212.78 billion [2] - **光库科技**: Key supplier of optical components and OEM for OCS, with a market cap of 270.34 billion [2] - **长芯博创**: Supplier of optical devices for Google Chain, with a market cap of 288.70 billion [2] - **光迅科技**: Supplies OCS systems and light sources, with a market cap of 444.90 billion [2] - **紫光股份**: Offers switches and routers, focusing on optical interconnection technologies, with a market cap of 710.73 billion [2] - **天孚通信**: Supplier of OCS fiber connectors and optical modules, with a market cap of 1243.92 billion [2] - **中际旭创**: Leader in optical modules, with mass production of 1.6T and 3.2T OCS switches, with a market cap of 5511.36 billion [2]