每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | 阿里巴巴 | | BABA US | | --- | --- | --- | | AI 及云业务价值长期仍有增长潜力 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 173.47 | 目标价: 美元 200.00 | 潜在涨幅: +15.3% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2026 财年 2 季度（截至 9 月）业绩预览：预计集团收入同比增 3.9%，基 本维持此前预期（下调 0.2%）。其中预计淘天 GMV 增速与大盘趋势一 致， CMR 保持高于 GMV 增速（接近 11%）。预计淘宝闪购对 app 运营 数据拉动效果持续，受大额补贴影响，业务整体亏损预计在 376 亿元， 受此影响，电商业务整体利润表现预计同比仅增中高个位数至约 110 亿 元。海外电商受海外不确定性因素，同比增速预计放缓至 16%，并实现 盈亏平衡。云业务进一步加速，预计收入同比超 30%，利润率持稳。 今日焦点 | 中国宏观 | | | | 全球主要指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the e-commerce sector is experiencing growth, with adjusted online retail sales in the physical e-commerce sector increasing by 7.5% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - The postal bureau anticipates a 12% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in September, indicating stable growth [1] - The extended promotional period for the Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to drive growth in instant retail [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that Alibaba's e-commerce GMV growth in September will align with the market average, while customer management revenue (CMR) growth will outpace GMV growth [1] - JD Group is expected to maintain steady retail growth in Q3, with improvements in average unit economics (UE) for its delivery services [1] - Kuaishou is projected to achieve a 15% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV in Q3 [1] Group 3 - Pinduoduo is expected to see marginal improvements in the second half of the year due to supportive policies and national subsidies [1] - The report provides price-to-earnings ratios for 2025: Alibaba at 19.7x, JD at 11.8x, Pinduoduo at 12.5x, and Kuaishou at 14.1x [1] - Alibaba's e-commerce market share is stabilizing, with a focus on restructuring its e-commerce framework through investments in instant retail and AI [1]