固收-债市平论 20260126 摘要 央行通过 MLF 净投放 7,000 亿元，显著提振债券市场，但未来利率下 行节奏或将放缓，10 年期国债收益率下限预计在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡， 大银行协助央行控制下限。 2 月份利率预计震荡，信用市场偏强，建议交易盘关注 3-5 年二级资本 债，配置盘可拉长久期，关注超长期利率债和 5 年以上二级资本债；3 月后利率仍有较大机会，建议以时间换空间。 2026 年财政政策总量增加和政府负债水平较低提振市场预期，但财政 增量预计不会超预期，支出更注重结构和效用，如支持民间投资和中小 微企业贷款贴息。 1 月政府融资约 1.2 万亿元，其中国债 0.47 万亿元，地方政府债超 0.6 万亿元。关键期限国债发行量增加，30 年国债认购热情高涨，需求端表 现强劲，地方债发行边际修复。 开年以来信用市场表现强劲，3-5 年二级资本债热度较高，市场倾向于 博弈确定性并获取票息收入。一季度摊余成本法估值的再配置规模增加， 3-4 月信用债仍具确定性，建议关注 3-5 年二永资本。 Q&A 近期债券市场收益率下行的主要原因是什么？ 近期债券市场收益率下行主要是由于前期供给压力有 ...

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector employment growth in October exceeded expectations, adding 42,000 jobs compared to the Dow Jones forecast of 22,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market is not at risk of recession [3][4] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 1.9 basis points to 4.11% [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, surpassing the longest shutdown during Trump's first term, with an estimated economic loss of $11 billion if it continues for another week [3][4] Group 2 - European stock markets opened lower, reflecting a global decline, with concerns over overvaluation in tech stocks [4] - In the bond market, there was a mixed performance in European debt yields, with German yields mostly declining while Italian yields rose [4] - The Nikkei index in the Asia-Pacific region hit a new low since October 24, with significant declines in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, leading to profit-taking [4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a nearly 5% drop against the U.S. dollar over the past month, as market participants test the Japanese government's tolerance for yen depreciation [5] - Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield falling by 2.5 basis points to 1.668% [5] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $2.05 billion in bonds, including a $690 million short-term bond [5] Group 4 - As of November 3, the total U.S. federal debt decreased by $36 billion from the previous month, totaling approximately $38 trillion [6]