广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年全球市场有一系列流行宏观叙事，包括美元信用长期走弱、全球产业链供应链重构、黄金是新一轮货 币体系的锚、AI是新一轮产业链变革的基础设施、有色金属是新阶段的原油等。叙事背后既有客观的基本面趋势，也 有特定宏观阶段下的概念性理解。全球财政环境、货币环境、贸易环境、技术环境的过快变化是叙事产生的天然土 壤。 第二， 2025年国内资产既存在基本面驱动，如外需和"两新"相关链条；又受全球主流叙事影响，高收益率资产集中 于有色、AI产业链。中观"温差"的存在是资产对叙事敏感的背景之一：新一轮产业投资相对集中，新兴部门景气度 高；投资、消费、地产偏弱，传统部门景气度低。这一则对应狭义流动性充裕，金融市场风险偏好较高；二则带来信 用扩张约束，盈利驱动的资产在广度上不够。2013-2015、2019-2020年也有类似逻辑。 第三， 2026年可能会形成一定的"镜像"关系，全球叙事预计趋于收敛。一是全球贸易环境不确定性下降，中美吉隆 坡磋商暂缓一年关税；中期选举前特朗普对其他区域可能锁定"成果"、减少折腾。二是经过2025年集中定价后，美 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative for the global market in 2025 includes the long-term weakening of the US dollar credit, restructuring of global supply chains, gold as a new anchor for the monetary system, AI as the infrastructure for a new industrial transformation, and non-ferrous metals as the new oil [1][8][36] - Domestic assets in 2025 are driven by fundamentals such as external demand and new industries, while high-yield assets are concentrated in non-ferrous metals and AI-related sectors [1][9][10] - The existence of a "temperature difference" in the medium term indicates that new industrial investments are concentrated, with emerging sectors showing high prosperity, while traditional sectors are weak [1][10] Group 2 - In 2026, a "mirror" relationship may form, with global narratives expected to converge, leading to reduced uncertainty in the global trade environment [2][11] - The expected recovery in investment gaps during the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan may stabilize the real estate sector and improve consumption rates [2][13] - The profitability of industrial enterprises is projected to improve, with an expected increase in profit growth from approximately 3% to 6.6% [3][14] Group 3 - The transition of macroeconomic policy from "counter-cyclical" to "expanding domestic demand" is expected to enhance fundamental pricing power [3][15][16] - The combination of converging narratives and reduced temperature differences will impact asset pricing characteristics, with a shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing for commodities [4][17] - The normalization of risk preferences among residents will lead to an increase in rental yield pricing power in the real estate sector [4][18] Group 4 - The next round of narratives may include themes such as industrialization in southern countries, the second wave of globalization for Chinese enterprises, AI scenario applications, and a new quality of consumption [5][20] - The traditional investment research framework faces challenges from these narratives, necessitating an optimization of the investment research framework to incorporate narrative analysis [5][21] - Key assumptions for economic judgment in 2026 include a moderate recovery in investment gaps, improvement in consumption, stable export fundamentals, and a stabilization of real estate decline [6][22][23][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the transformation of traditional pharmacies from "drug sales" to "health management" in the context of the deep integration of the digital economy and physical industries [1] - China Mobile launched the "Mobile Smart Enterprise" brand to provide comprehensive digital solutions, aiming to assist traditional pharmacies in becoming "smart pharmacies" and enhancing service capabilities [1][2] - The brand focuses on addressing the digital transformation challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), positioning itself as a reliable digital partner [2] Group 2 - "Mobile Smart Enterprise" has developed a product system that includes "Smart Connection, Smart Security, and Smart Management," offering a full-stack solution to help SMEs reduce costs and improve efficiency [2] - The service system is built on three commitments: fast processing, good experience, and strong after-sales support, ensuring high-quality service delivery [2] Group 3 - The initiative utilizes AI technology to create a comprehensive solution for pharmacies, addressing regulatory compliance, operational efficiency, and service experience [3] - Specific solutions include a dedicated line for medical insurance data transmission, a smart pharmacy monitoring system, and customer flow analysis tools to optimize store layouts and enhance user engagement [3] Group 4 - The digital practices of "Mobile Smart Enterprise" extend beyond pharmacies to various sectors, including hotels and retail, utilizing AI and IoT technologies for operational efficiency and cost reduction [4] - In the hotel industry, features like facial recognition check-in and smart room controls enhance guest experience and operational management [4] Group 5 - The "6+X" matrix approach expands the service offerings to six core scenarios, including retail, catering, and property management, while also incorporating localized services to meet diverse SME needs [5] - The initiative aims to facilitate the digital transformation of traditional industries, promoting the accessibility of digital technologies and supporting high-quality economic development in China [5]