Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent upon China's full production and the timely release of new overseas production capacity [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The balance in supply and demand is heavily reliant on China's electrolytic aluminum production being at full capacity and the expected increase in overseas production capacity [1] - Any disruption in supply could lead to a situation where demand outstrips supply, resulting in upward pressure on prices [1] Price Trends - The report suggests that the chain reaction of high prices leading to high profits and new supply is vulnerable to supply issues, making prices more likely to rise than fall [1] - The potential for accelerated price increases exists, particularly if the competition for AI investments in Europe and the U.S. encounters electricity supply constraints, which could threaten over 4 million tons of existing supply [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3900-point mark, reaching a 10-year high and accumulating over 17% gains year-to-date [1] - The STAR 50 Index saw a remarkable increase of over 5%, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 59% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 90th consecutive trading day [2] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.07, up 1.24% with a year-to-date increase of 17.28% [3] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.77% to 3295.58, with a year-to-date gain of 53.88% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% to 13763.88, accumulating a year-to-date rise of 32.16% [3] - The STAR 50 Index reached 1578.88, up 5.59% with a year-to-date increase of 59.65% [3] Sector Highlights - The market is currently focused on growth and cyclical sectors, with precious metals, gold, and copper among the hottest sectors [3] - Notable stocks such as Sichuan Gold, China Metallurgical Group, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Yunnan Copper, and Jiangxi Copper hit the daily limit, while Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals surged over 9% [3] Precious Metals and Copper Market - During the recent holiday, global precious metals performed exceptionally well, with gold prices reaching new highs [5] - COMEX gold rose by 4.45% during the holiday, surpassing $4000 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 52% [6] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply expectations, with prices reaching a 15-month high due to anticipated supply crises and increased demand from AI infrastructure [10][11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weakening dollar and resource protectionism will keep resource prices strong, with copper being referred to as the "new oil" of the AI era [12] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,000 to $10,500 per ton, anticipating sustained demand driven by energy and technology revolutions [12][14] - Citigroup also expects supply chain disruptions and favorable macroeconomic factors to push copper prices to historical highs within the next 18 months [13]