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基建投入持续强化 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-11 03:36
Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is facing challenges due to low demand for cement, with average shipment rates around 44%, and prices hitting or falling below cost levels, exacerbated by rising coal prices [1][6]. Investment Highlights - The construction materials sector saw a weekly change of 1.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which changed by 1.23% and 1.94% respectively [2]. - The national average price for high-standard cement is 339.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 42.5 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 67.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from last week and 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Cement Market Analysis - The cement market is experiencing low demand due to high temperatures and rainfall, with companies in key regions discussing staggered production to alleviate operational pressures [6]. - There is a consensus on supply discipline within the industry, which may lead to better profitability compared to last year, with potential price increases expected in mid-August [6]. - The sector's price-to-book ratio is at historical lows, and industry policies may drive profitability recovery and valuation improvement [6]. Glass Fiber Market Insights - The electronic glass fiber market is seeing an upgrade trend, with high-end products expected to gain market share due to technological advancements [7]. - The ordinary glass fiber market remains under pressure, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, supporting mid-term profitability [8]. - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are positioned to benefit from structural adjustments and increasing demand in emerging applications [8]. Glass Industry Overview - The glass industry is facing significant losses, but supply-side contractions may improve the short-term supply-demand balance, with potential price stabilization [9]. - The industry is expected to benefit from policy measures aimed at reducing excess capacity, with leading companies likely to enjoy cost advantages and excess profits [9]. Renovation and Building Materials Sector - Increased external uncertainties and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumption in the home improvement and building materials sector [10]. - The market for home improvement materials is anticipated to improve, with leading companies likely to see valuation recovery as consumer confidence strengthens [10]. - Companies are exploring new business models and extending their supply chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].
PMI走弱,需求侧等待新政策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 04:32
Group 1: Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [2] - The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 5,178 million heavy boxes, down 156 million heavy boxes from last week and down 1,025 million heavy boxes from the same period in 2024 [2] - The market for electronic glass fiber remains stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products at 8,800-9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - The construction materials sector saw a decline of 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Wind All A Index declined by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [1] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to improved supply-demand balance and potential policy support, with leading companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement recommended for investment [5][6] - The glass fiber market is anticipated to benefit from technological upgrades and increased demand in high-end applications, with companies like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]
PMI走弱,需求侧等待新政策 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-04 03:37
Group 1 - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The construction materials sector (SW) decreased by 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [2] - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [3] - The domestic non-alkali roving market price is stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3200 to 3700 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week [3] Group 3 - The real estate industry has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate sector turning positive, indicating a clearing in the supply chain [4][5] - The cement and glass industries are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from demand recovery and industry consolidation [5][6] - The glass fiber market is expected to see growth in high-end products due to technological advancements and increased demand in sectors like wind power and new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a supply-side contraction, which is expected to improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9] - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, which will positively impact the home improvement and building materials market [10][11] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from national subsidy policies are recommended for investment [11]