证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 建筑业 PMI 回升符合季节性规律，值得关注 2026 年 01 月 05 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.12.27–2026.1.2，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅- 1.59%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.59%、-0.33%，超 额收益分别为-1.00%、-1.26%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为 352.8 元/吨，较上周-1.2 元/吨，较 2024 年同期-53.8 元/吨。较上周价格 持平的地区：长三角地区、泛京津冀地区、华北地区、东北地区、华东 地区、西北地区；较上周价格上涨的地区：两广地区（+5.0 元/吨）、中 南地区（+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate chain is gradually clarifying its bottom, with expectations for a performance turning point in 2026 after clearing burdens from 2025 [3][4] - The building materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 2.61% and 1.78%, respectively [3] - The report highlights the stability in cement prices, with the national average price at 354.0 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 62.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][10] - Glass prices have decreased, with the average price for float glass at 1140.1 RMB/ton, down 11.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 260.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [41][46] - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastics, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national cement market price remains stable at 354.0 RMB/ton, with regional variations noted [10][11] - The average cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [18][20] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices if physical demand stabilizes, particularly in provinces with significant infrastructure projects [4][9] 2. Glass Market Overview - The float glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with an average price of 1140.1 RMB/ton [41] - Inventory levels have increased, with a total of 5533 million weight boxes reported, indicating a need for inventory reduction [46] - The report suggests that the glass industry may face challenges in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand [4][41] 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a gradual recovery, with demand driven by new applications and stable growth in traditional sectors [4] - Effective capacity for fiberglass is projected to increase, supporting a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [4][6] - The report recommends companies such as China Jushi and suggests attention to other players like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The building materials sector is expected to attract attention during the current volatile period, with a focus on high-yield assets and companies such as Rabbit Baby, Shangfeng Cement, and Op Lighting [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand chains and anticipates a rebound in the fiberglass and electronic fabric markets in 2026 [3] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 354.8 CNY/ton, up by 0.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, but down by 69.2 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average cement inventory ratio is 64.8%, down by 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, and the average daily shipment rate is 43.9%, down by 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [4][18][20] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1165.1 CNY/ton, up by 1.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, but down by 247.0 CNY/ton year-on-year. The inventory of float glass stands at 5542 million heavy boxes, down by 133 million heavy boxes week-on-week [4][42][45] - **Fiberglass**: The market price for domestic alkali-free roving remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices around 3250-3700 CNY/ton. The effective production capacity for fiberglass is expected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][8] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity. The expected net capacity reduction is 40.49 million tons, equivalent to 6.8% of the national clinker design capacity by the end of 2024 [4][8] - The glass industry is experiencing an increase in the loss rate, prompting the closure of older production lines. The report anticipates a rebound in glass prices in the first half of 2026 due to supply contraction [4][8] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The building materials sector saw a decline of 1.41% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [4] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic attention on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the context of ongoing economic adjustments and international trade dynamics [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 1.28% and 0.72%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of 0.27% and 0.82% [4]. - Cement prices have increased to 354.7 CNY/ton, up by 4.5 CNY/ton from the previous week, but down by 70.3 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year [4][14]. - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week, while the average cement shipment rate is 44.6%, down by 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights that infrastructure construction is expected to be a key driver for economic stability in the short term, with recommendations to focus on companies in the infrastructure supply chain and home improvement sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average cement price is 354.7 CNY/ton, with significant regional price increases noted in the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest regions [4][14]. The average shipment rate has decreased to 44.6% [21]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass is reported at 1163.9 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 16.0 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 254.7 CNY/ton [48]. The inventory level for float glass is 5675 million weight boxes, down by 83 million from the previous week [50]. - **Fiberglass**: The market remains stable with no significant price changes, and the focus is on the demand recovery in the downstream sectors [4]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the construction materials sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the southern regions, while northern regions face challenges due to seasonal weather impacts [4]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation Table - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a positive performance compared to broader market indices, indicating potential investment opportunities [4]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in infrastructure, home improvement, and export-oriented sectors, including Conch Cement, Oriental Yuhong, and China Communications Construction [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The global trade situation is expected to stabilize over the next year, with a focus on exports [1] - The construction materials sector has shown a positive performance, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [4] - The report highlights the importance of the U.S.-China trade agreement in shaping future trade stability [4] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 351.7 RMB/ton, up by 3.5 RMB/ton from last week, but down by 65.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 69.6%, up by 1.8 percentage points from last week [13][14][22] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1202.7 RMB/ton, down by 41.0 RMB/ton from last week and down by 126.0 RMB/ton year-on-year. The inventory of float glass stands at 62 million heavy boxes, down by 470,000 boxes from last week [48][50] - **Fiberglass**: The market price for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton [46] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes a rebound in new orders and business activity expectations in the construction sector, linked to recent policy financial support [4] - The report recommends focusing on export-oriented industries, particularly in the fiberglass sector, and companies involved in home decoration consumption [4] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The report indicates that the cement market is experiencing a slight increase in prices, particularly in the southwestern region, while demand is expected to weaken as northern regions enter winter [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining supply discipline within the cement industry, which is expected to lead to better profitability compared to the previous year [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus is on the "15th Five-Year Plan," while mid-term strategies await the economic work conference for direction [1]. - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 4.11% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic circulation and technological advancements in the industry, particularly in the context of the upcoming economic policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, down by 2.3 CNY/ton from last week and down 61.8 CNY/ton from the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 67.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week [4][20][15]. - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1301.0 CNY/ton, up 11.2 CNY/ton from last week and up 46.6% from 2024. Inventory levels have increased, indicating a potential oversupply [45][51]. - **Fiberglass**: The market for fiberglass remains stable, with prices for non-alkali yarn around 3250-3700 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.93% [4][6]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions, while southern regions face financial constraints [13][14]. - The glass market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations [44][51]. - The report emphasizes the need for supply-side reforms and the potential for price stabilization in the fiberglass sector as excess capacity is addressed [7][8]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expectations for policy support to enhance profitability and valuation recovery [4][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the cement industry, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, are well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and improved market conditions [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a 2.45% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 1.07% and 0.33%, respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand changes and anticipates a recovery in the construction materials market due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The cement market price is currently at 344.0 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 40.7 CNY/ton [3][18] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 65.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [23] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The cement market is experiencing weak demand, but prices are expected to trend upwards due to companies' efforts to improve profitability [10] - The industry is expected to maintain a better profit level compared to last year, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading companies [10] 2.2 Glass - The glass market is currently facing a stalemate with high inventory levels and weak demand, but supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue [13] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions [13] 2.3 Glass Fiber - The report suggests that the profitability of glass fiber products is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [11] - The industry is seeing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which may stabilize prices [11] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand and consumption, which is expected to positively impact the construction materials sector [14] - The anticipated recovery in the housing market, driven by government policies, is expected to enhance demand for home improvement materials [14] 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with key companies expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market recovery [5] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Conch Cement, China National Building Material, and others [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector has experienced a decline of 2.79% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which fell by 0.81% and 1.37% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.98% and -1.41% [2][3] Group 1: Cement Market - The national high-standard cement market price is 342.7 CNY/ton, down by 1.7 CNY/ton from last week and down by 40.0 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][9] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 64.1%, up by 0.4 percentage points from last week but down by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 45.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points from last week but down by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price of float glass is 1193.0 CNY/ton, up by 3.3 CNY/ton from last week but down by 147.2 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][10] - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises is 56.04 million heavy boxes, up by 0.5 million heavy boxes from last week but down by 6.92 million heavy boxes year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Fiberglass Market - The domestic non-alkali roving market price remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex non-alkali winding direct yarn ranging from 3100 to 3700 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to previous periods [4][7] - The market for electronic yarn G75 is stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 8300 to 9200 CNY/ton, also remaining flat compared to the previous week [4][7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Cement, among others [5][9] - In the consumer building materials sector, companies such as Arrow Bathroom, Dongpeng Holdings, and Oppein Home are recommended due to expected growth in the second half of the year [5][11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued Hong Kong-listed construction central enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is facing challenges due to low demand for cement, with average shipment rates around 44%, and prices hitting or falling below cost levels, exacerbated by rising coal prices [1][6]. Investment Highlights - The construction materials sector saw a weekly change of 1.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which changed by 1.23% and 1.94% respectively [2]. - The national average price for high-standard cement is 339.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 42.5 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 67.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from last week and 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Cement Market Analysis - The cement market is experiencing low demand due to high temperatures and rainfall, with companies in key regions discussing staggered production to alleviate operational pressures [6]. - There is a consensus on supply discipline within the industry, which may lead to better profitability compared to last year, with potential price increases expected in mid-August [6]. - The sector's price-to-book ratio is at historical lows, and industry policies may drive profitability recovery and valuation improvement [6]. Glass Fiber Market Insights - The electronic glass fiber market is seeing an upgrade trend, with high-end products expected to gain market share due to technological advancements [7]. - The ordinary glass fiber market remains under pressure, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, supporting mid-term profitability [8]. - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are positioned to benefit from structural adjustments and increasing demand in emerging applications [8]. Glass Industry Overview - The glass industry is facing significant losses, but supply-side contractions may improve the short-term supply-demand balance, with potential price stabilization [9]. - The industry is expected to benefit from policy measures aimed at reducing excess capacity, with leading companies likely to enjoy cost advantages and excess profits [9]. Renovation and Building Materials Sector - Increased external uncertainties and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumption in the home improvement and building materials sector [10]. - The market for home improvement materials is anticipated to improve, with leading companies likely to see valuation recovery as consumer confidence strengthens [10]. - Companies are exploring new business models and extending their supply chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].