英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 政策与汇率形成正向共振，市场对跨年行情预期升温 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四上午三大指数呈现分化走势，沪指依托权重板块的稳健支撑震荡拉升， 创业板指则受部分高估值赛道股回调拖累冲高回落。进入午后，市场做多情绪持 续升温，资金承接力度增强，三大指数成功集体翻红。在持续反弹的推动下，沪 指短期斩获七连阳，市场对跨年行情的预期随之逐步升温。 市场缓步上行得益于政策利好与汇率改善的双重驱动。政策层面，央行四季 度例会明确释放"维护资本市场稳定"的信号，并提出用好证券、基金、保险公 司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排。这种清晰的政策基 调有效稳定了市场预期，显著增强了投资者信心。另外，汇率层面，近期人民币 兑美元呈现持续升值态势，离岸人民币兑美元成功升破 7.0 关键关口，大幅降低 了外资流出压力，为指数上行注入了增量资金预期。政策与汇率形成正向共振， 共同助推市场走出连续反弹行情。 不过，市场基本面的改善仍需时间验证，当前宏观经济数据虽有边际改善， 但尚未形成明确的复苏拐点，企业盈利的修复还需要进一步的观察。 ...

银行业 2026 年度策略 20251207 摘要 2026 年或是银行股估值提升的关键节点，预计息差降幅收窄将显著提 升银行业绩，尤其利好大型银行。净息差与 ROE 同向波动，净息差改善 有望推动 PB 估值上升，为银行股带来上涨动力。 海内外银行业估值差异显著，国内及部分欧洲、香港地区估值偏低，而 美国、日本等地较高。通胀上升和经济复苏时期，银行作为顺周期行业 表现突出，即使在风险暴露后也能获得超额收益，如日本三菱日联在坏 账率见顶后股价大幅上涨。 国内外部环境虽平稳但复苏尚不明显，借鉴美国、日本经验，风险出清 后银行可获超额收益。农业银行等大型银行 PB 仍有提升空间，保险资 金持续买入亦构成支撑，短期受指数和战事影响涨势放缓，但长期影响 将消退。 债市表现对银行未来业绩预期影响有限。2025 年上市银行非利息收入 承压，但整体利润增长平稳并逐季提升，得益于净利差积极因素。2026 年非利息收入压力或减小，TTL 占比正常，利率上升带来的短期担忧无 需过度关注。 Q&A 2026 年银行行业的整体策略观点是什么？ 2026 年银行行业的整体策略观点是基于银行业估值具有系统性提升的理论和 客观条件。尽管短 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares continue to fluctuate narrowly, with domestic stock index showing strong resilience. After the release of the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with limited downside risks. The bond market pricing is rather entangled and may continue to fluctuate narrowly. Precious metals maintain a weak - side fluctuation. Different varieties in other sectors have their own trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT rotates upwards, and A - shares continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. If there is a deep decline on a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The equity market declines, and the bond futures fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices may seek to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan), and it is recommended to buy on dips. Silver follows the gold price, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips with a light position [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract rises and is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [3]. - **Steel**: For steel, it is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and wait and see on the unilateral side. Iron ore fluctuates, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally within the range of 750 - 800. Coking coal and coke are considered to have a downward - biased fluctuation, with reference ranges of 1100 - 1250 and 1600 - 1750 respectively [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper fluctuates, with the main contract referring to 85000 - 87500. Aluminum oxide fluctuates at a low level, waiting for new trading drivers. Aluminum breaks through the 22000 mark and then adjusts downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Other non - ferrous metal varieties also have their own price ranges and operation suggestions [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon futures fluctuate downward, with a price range of 50000 - 58000. Lithium carbonate has multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have their own price trends and corresponding operation suggestions, including waiting and seeing, operating within the range, and doing arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, corn, etc. have their own price trends. For example, hogs are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 spread arbitrage. Corn rebounds and fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 2200 [3].

Group 1 - Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, has signed a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI to provide computing capacity over seven years, including the supply of hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs [1] - The agreement aims to assist in generating responses and training next-generation models for ChatGPT [1] - Following the announcement, the CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry Index fell by 0.68%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] Group 2 - The AI ETF (515980) recorded a turnover of 1.87% and a half-day trading volume of 150 million yuan, with a total size of 7.965 billion yuan [2] - Over the past five trading days, the AI ETF has seen net inflows on three days, totaling 353 million yuan [2] - The AI industry index reported a revenue growth rate of 26.23% and a profit growth rate of 74.75% in Q3, marking the highest values since 2019 [2] Group 3 - Market focus is shifting towards "turnaround" industries with average current performance but expected improvement next year, alongside cyclical industries benefiting from economic stimulus [3] - The AI industry is in a valuation digestion phase, providing a rare opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate positions since April [3] - The HuaFu AI ETF (515980) covers various aspects of the AI industry, tracking the only quarterly rebalancing AI index in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant inflows into related ETFs and new market developments indicating potential growth opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) opened slightly lower on November 4, with a latest circulation scale of 5.677 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in the Shenzhen market [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has seen net inflows on 9 occasions, accumulating over 135 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Developments - On October 31, Taobao launched a new convenience store brand "Taobao Convenience Store," which aims to provide a comprehensive shopping experience with 24-hour service and 30-minute delivery, leveraging Alibaba's supply chain advantages [1]. - Notably, investor Duan Yongping donated 10,000 shares of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) to the Jiangxi Water Conservancy and Electric Power University, valued at 15 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Zhongyin International, the food and beverage industry is a typical pro-cyclical sector, closely linked to the external economic environment. With coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, the consumption slowdown is expected to improve, allowing related sub-industries to emerge from the cyclical trough [2].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a notable increase in value and attracting substantial investment in recent trading days [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Food ETF (515710) opened with a rapid increase, reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.32% and closing with a gain of 0.99% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangzhou Restaurant and Gujing Gongjiu, saw increases exceeding 6%, while several others, including Yanjinpuzi and Qianhe Flavor, rose over 5% [1]. - The Food ETF has attracted over 155 million yuan in the last five trading days and 214 million yuan over the past 20 trading days [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The food and beverage industry is characterized as a typical cyclical sector, with its performance closely tied to the external economic environment. Improved fiscal and monetary policies are expected to enhance consumer sentiment [3]. - Leading companies in the sector are demonstrating strong recovery capabilities despite a weak domestic demand environment, indicating a trend where the strong continue to thrive [3]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector remains low, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index at 19.89, placing it in the lower range historically [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on high-quality white wine leaders and consumer goods leaders that are positioned at the bottom of the industry cycle [3][4]. - The white wine sector is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential phase for investment [4]. - The Food ETF is recommended as a core asset for investors looking to gain exposure to the food and beverage sector, with a significant portion of its holdings in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [5].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities expresses a positive outlook on the solar, chemicals, and lithium industries, emphasizing a preference for these sectors based on a rebound from the trend of "involution" in cyclical industries [1] Industry Summary - The solar industry is highlighted as a key area of growth, benefiting from increasing demand and supportive government policies [1] - The chemicals sector is expected to perform well due to rising industrial activity and a recovery in global supply chains [1] - The lithium industry is positioned favorably, driven by the growing electric vehicle market and the need for energy storage solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showed fluctuations with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting the cyclical nature of certain industries and the significance of the PPI rebound in 2023 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The index saw leading gains from stocks such as Bluestar Technology, Cangge Mining, and Jinfat Technology, while stocks like HeBang Bio and Salt Lake Co. experienced declines [1] - The analysis from招商证券 indicates that the PPI rebound is a key characteristic of "6 and 1" years, with strong performance in cyclical industries such as resources, finance, and real estate [1] Group 2: ETF and Sector Composition - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with a significant focus on the basic chemical industry at 61.93% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry at 30.84% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include WanHua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Co., Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Jinfat Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively accounting for 55.12% of the index [1]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on September 29 but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% at 3832.90 points and a trading volume of 555.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.11% to 13355.98 points with a trading volume of 729.1 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.77% to 3207.44 points with a trading volume of 344.3 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in solid-state battery stocks, with companies like Xiangtan Electric and Dufeng Technology hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The securities sector also saw gains, with Guosheng Jin控 hitting a historical high, and other firms like Huatai Securities and Dongwu Securities performing well [1] - Conversely, education stocks experienced significant declines, with China High-Tech and Kevin Education both hitting the daily limit down [1][2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that the current storage cycle is characterized by "conservative expectations" and that the upturn in storage demand is likely to continue at least until the second half of 2026 [3] - GF Securities highlighted that since 2005, cyclical industries have a greater than 65% probability of rising in the fourth quarter, contingent on improved macroeconomic fundamentals [3] - Huatai Securities noted that the A-share market is entering a consolidation phase, with a potential shift in investor sentiment post-holiday, suggesting a focus on low-position sectors like technology and consumer goods [4] Economic Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, state-owned enterprises generated a total profit of 27,937.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while total revenue increased by 0.2% to 539,620.1 billion yuan [5] - The Ministry of Water Resources projected that investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 54 billion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [5] Corporate News - Recent updates indicate that Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group, no longer has "height restrictions" on his executive information, suggesting a resolution to previous economic disputes related to Wanda's subsidiary projects [6]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index flat, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.30%, and ChiNext Index up 0.43%, driven by gains in battery and energy metal sectors [1] - Huatai Securities suggests a shift towards low-position sectors as October approaches, indicating a policy and earnings layout window, with a focus on TMT sectors and domestic technology [2] - Guangfa Securities highlights a seasonal effect in Q4, noting that cyclical industries have a 65% probability of rising, with over 60% chance of outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] Group 2 - Everbright Securities anticipates a continued oscillation in the Shanghai Composite Index before the holiday, with a potential boost from the International New Energy Vehicle Conference, which plans to invest over 100 million yuan in consumer vouchers and subsidies [3]