转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月29日电（胡晨曦）A股三大指数9月29日早间低开，随后震荡回升翻红，沪指半日涨 0.13%，创业板指早盘一度涨近3%。盘面上，固态电池概念股表现强势，湘潭电化、多氟多等多股涨 停；证券板块震荡走高，国盛金控涨停创出历史新高，华泰证券、东吴证券、广发证券涨幅居前。下跌 方面，教育股集体大跌，中国高科、凯文教育双双触及跌停；猪肉、食品股同样表现不佳，龙大美食、 傲农生物、温氏股份等多股下挫。 截至午间收盘，沪指报3832.90点，涨幅0.13%，成交5551亿元；深证成指报13355.98点，涨幅1.11%， 成交7291亿元；创业板指报3207.44点，涨幅1.77%，成交3443亿元。科创50指数报1443.35点，跌幅 0.51%，总成交额约576亿元。 热点板块 盘面上，电池、贵金属、证券、金属镍、固态电池、PEEK材料等板块和概念股涨幅居前；教育、煤炭 开采加工、养殖业、芬太尼、跨境支付、乳业等板块和概念股跌幅居前。 机构观点 中信证券：相比于上一轮存储上行周期（2023Q3-2024Q2）是"强预期弱现实"，本轮存储周期上行 是"保守预期→北美CSP上调CAPEX + ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index flat, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.30%, and ChiNext Index up 0.43%, driven by gains in battery and energy metal sectors [1] - Huatai Securities suggests a shift towards low-position sectors as October approaches, indicating a policy and earnings layout window, with a focus on TMT sectors and domestic technology [2] - Guangfa Securities highlights a seasonal effect in Q4, noting that cyclical industries have a 65% probability of rising, with over 60% chance of outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] Group 2 - Everbright Securities anticipates a continued oscillation in the Shanghai Composite Index before the holiday, with a potential boost from the International New Energy Vehicle Conference, which plans to invest over 100 million yuan in consumer vouchers and subsidies [3]

Market Overview - Last Friday, the market experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2.5% during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion, a decrease of 224.2 billion compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.60% [1]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, wind power and insurance sectors saw the highest gains, while gaming, computing hardware, and photolithography sectors faced the largest declines [1]. Analyst Insights - Everbright Securities predicts that the index will likely maintain a fluctuating pattern before the holiday, with the current market style indicating a short-term adjustment in the technology sector, which does not alter the mid-term upward trend. The upcoming Hefei International New Energy Vehicle Conference on September 29 is expected to stimulate related concepts with over 100 million in consumer vouchers and subsidies planned [1]. - GF Securities highlights a significant characteristic in the market structure entering the fourth quarter: since 2005, cyclical industries have had over a 65% probability of rising in Q4, with more than 60% likelihood of outperforming the CSI 300 Index. This is contingent on the cyclical industries benefiting from a "calendar effect" based on improved macroeconomic fundamentals [2].

Market Overview - Since September, the A-share market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with increased risk aversion leading some funds to shift towards dividend assets characterized by low valuations and high dividends [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 1.18% since September, indicating a structural divergence in the market [2] Sector Performance - The defense, computer, and electronics sectors, which previously led the market, have seen significant corrections, with the defense sector index declining over 10% [2] - Conversely, cyclical sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities have strengthened, with the electric equipment sector rising over 5% [2] - The strong performance of cyclical sectors is attributed to steady demand recovery and the appeal of high dividend yields in the current market environment [2] Stock Characteristics - Over 3,000 stocks have declined since September, with more than 450 stocks falling over 10%, while over 400 stocks have risen more than 10% [3] - Stocks that have increased by at least 10% exhibit significant high dividend characteristics, with their average market capitalization below 15 billion and average P/E ratios lower than those of declining stocks [4] Fund Flows - Dividend assets have attracted significant capital, with dividend-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of over 800 million, while other sectors like technology and AI have experienced substantial outflows [5] - Financing balances in sectors such as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals have increased, while sectors like defense and computing have seen declines [5] Stability and Risk Buffer - Dividend assets have shown notable resilience during market downturns, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in several instances since 2020 [6][7] - The dividend index has a lower P/E ratio compared to consumer and technology indices, indicating a more attractive valuation for risk-averse investors [8] Investment Strategy - The dividend sector is seen as a strong defensive choice in a volatile market, while the consumer sector offers stable returns and growth potential for long-term investors [9] - The technology sector, despite its high growth potential, carries investment risks due to lower dividend yields and higher valuations [9]

Group 1 - As of August 26, 2025, China Coal Energy's stock price is 12.05 yuan, down 0.20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 317,883 hands and a transaction amount of 384 million yuan [1] - China Coal Energy is a significant player in the coal industry, involved in coal production and trade, coal chemical industry, and coal mining equipment manufacturing, headquartered in Beijing as a large state-owned energy enterprise [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, China Coal Energy saw an increase in insurance fund holdings, aligning with the trend of insurance capital increasing allocations to cyclical industries [1] Group 2 - On August 26, 2025, the net outflow of main funds for China Coal Energy was 16.62 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 49.81 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock market hit a new high again today. The technology sector represented by TMT continued to be favored by funds, while the pro - cyclical sectors were generally weak. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose only 0.21%, while the CSI 1000 Index soared 1.69% [4]. - In the short term, the stock market is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural market conditions. With low sensitivity to economic data and no obvious short - term negatives, continuous capital inflows, optimistic sentiment, and structural support from technology news have sustained the upward trend of the stock market [4]. - Technically, the CSI 300 Index is approaching the medium - to - long - term resistance line at around 4250. Traders should pay attention to its breakthrough. Although the market sentiment is high, in the long run, the market will not deviate from the economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is necessary for holders to manage risks [4]. - Strategy recommendation: Insurance strategy - hold spot and buy put options [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed significant volume expansion and overall growth today, with the market index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 51.9551 billion yuan. All futures index varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - China supports all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the crisis and welcomes the contact and improvement of relations between Russia and the US to promote the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - subsidy investigation period for imported related dairy products originating from the EU [3]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.82 | 0.08 | 1.28 | 1.58 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.0257 | 7.4191 | 13.1737 | 29.3129 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.9502 | - 0.3105 | 0.969 | 3.5552 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.3598 | 10.7224 | 22.6003 | 39.2524 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.5159 | 0.7111 | 0.3557 | 2.6482 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.85 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.09 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 276.4163 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 51.9551 | [5]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is facing challenges due to low demand for cement, with average shipment rates around 44%, and prices hitting or falling below cost levels, exacerbated by rising coal prices [1][6]. Investment Highlights - The construction materials sector saw a weekly change of 1.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which changed by 1.23% and 1.94% respectively [2]. - The national average price for high-standard cement is 339.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 42.5 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 67.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from last week and 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Cement Market Analysis - The cement market is experiencing low demand due to high temperatures and rainfall, with companies in key regions discussing staggered production to alleviate operational pressures [6]. - There is a consensus on supply discipline within the industry, which may lead to better profitability compared to last year, with potential price increases expected in mid-August [6]. - The sector's price-to-book ratio is at historical lows, and industry policies may drive profitability recovery and valuation improvement [6]. Glass Fiber Market Insights - The electronic glass fiber market is seeing an upgrade trend, with high-end products expected to gain market share due to technological advancements [7]. - The ordinary glass fiber market remains under pressure, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, supporting mid-term profitability [8]. - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are positioned to benefit from structural adjustments and increasing demand in emerging applications [8]. Glass Industry Overview - The glass industry is facing significant losses, but supply-side contractions may improve the short-term supply-demand balance, with potential price stabilization [9]. - The industry is expected to benefit from policy measures aimed at reducing excess capacity, with leading companies likely to enjoy cost advantages and excess profits [9]. Renovation and Building Materials Sector - Increased external uncertainties and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumption in the home improvement and building materials sector [10]. - The market for home improvement materials is anticipated to improve, with leading companies likely to see valuation recovery as consumer confidence strengthens [10]. - Companies are exploring new business models and extending their supply chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of brokerage "gold stocks" in July, with all 30 brokerage gold stock combinations showing positive returns, indicating a robust recovery in the A-share market [2][9]. Brokerage Performance - Ping An Securities' gold stock combination achieved the highest return of 16.57% in July, followed by Kaiyuan Securities at 13.57% and Caitong Securities at 12.93% [3][9][10]. - Notably, all brokerage gold stock combinations recorded positive returns, with several brokerages, including China Merchants Securities and Galaxy Securities, also exceeding 10% returns [9][10]. Top Performing Stocks - The best-performing stock was Kangchen Pharmaceutical, recommended by Ping An Securities, which surged by 106.74% in July [4][6]. - Other notable stocks included Borui Pharmaceutical (82.05%), Kangfang Biotech (68.13%), and Yuandong Biotech (56.60%), all showing significant monthly gains [6][7]. August Strategy - Brokerages are adopting an aggressive strategy for August, focusing on technology growth stocks and cyclical stocks benefiting from mid-year performance reports [12][15]. - The market outlook is optimistic, driven by expectations of recovering corporate ROE and a favorable policy environment, suggesting a continued upward trend in A-shares [15]. Common Recommendations - Several stocks received multiple recommendations from brokerages for August, including Dongfang Caifu, Muyuan Foods, and Wanhua Chemical, each recommended by four different brokerages [16][19]. - The rationale for recommending Dongfang Caifu includes the potential for the securities sector to enter a main upward trend, while Muyuan Foods is recognized for its leading position in the pig farming industry [16][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Today's index showed mixed trends. Cyclical industries led the gains, while technology concepts declined due to the influence of the US stock market. The overall market index rose, but the small - cap index fell. It was a clear structural market with more declining stocks than rising stocks in the Wind All - A index. With little change in short - term information and continuous external disturbances, the market remained cautious. The trading volume of the two markets changed little, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, so trend trading should be cautious [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed trends. The CSI 300 index closed up 0.47%. The trading volume of the two markets increased slightly by 3.764 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF rose with increasing volume, IH and IC rose with decreasing volume, and IM fell with decreasing volume [4] Important Information - The Ministry of Commerce stated that implementing US measures to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally would be illegal. - Regarding the EU's plan to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages from China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry hoped the EU would provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises. - In response to the EU and UK's new sanctions on Russia that included Chinese and UAE companies, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said normal Sino - Russian cooperation should not be disrupted, and China would take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.13 | - 0.18 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.7769 | 3.6454 | 5.9269 | 15.0678 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.5519 | - 0.0754 | - 0.8409 | - 2.2672 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.4964 | 7.7641 | 20.0196 | 30.6674 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 0.2753 | - 0.121 | 0.1085 | - 0.2343 | [6][7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.21 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.44 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.45 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 11734.45 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 37.64 | [7]