证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Title] PMI 再回落，什么信号 3 月 4日， 统计局发布 2月 PMI，制造业 PMI 49.0%，前值 49.3%；非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 49.4%。 关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，部分受到春节因素拖累。2 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.0%，连续第二 个月低于荣枯线。组成制造业 PMI 的五个分项中，主要是生产、新订单明显回落，生产下降 1.0 个百分点至 49.6%，新订单回落 0.6 个百分点至 48.6%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.25、0.18 个百分点。 制造业回落，很大程度上是春节因素。PMI 已通过季调方式剔除季节性规律，不过农历春节的早晚，对 2 月到 3 月 PMI 仍有影响，难以剔除。参考春节日期类似的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021 （2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 2 月相对 1 月回落 0.3 到 2.8 个百分点（平均-1.57）；新订单介于-1.6 到+0.2 个 百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share "nuclear fusion" concept companies may face a long performance gap before commercial power generation is realized, despite recent funding and technological breakthroughs in the sector [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 15, 2026, the implementation of the "Atomic Energy Law" encouraging controlled nuclear fusion coincided with a market style shift, leading investors to focus on the "controlled nuclear fusion" sector as a potential new market leader [2]. - Recent funding activities, such as Shanghai Xinghuan Fusion Technology's completion of a 1 billion yuan Series A financing, have set records for domestic private fusion companies, indicating strong investor interest [2][16]. - Several listed companies in the "nuclear fusion concept" category, including China First Heavy Industries and China Nuclear Engineering, experienced significant stock price increases, but many issued announcements clarifying that they currently have minimal related revenue [3][25]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The nuclear fusion industry is seeing advancements in technology, with breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting magnets, which are crucial for achieving the necessary magnetic field strength for fusion [11][18]. - The energy density of nuclear fusion is significantly higher than that of nuclear fission, with 1 gram of deuterium-tritium fusion fuel releasing energy equivalent to 11.2 tons of standard coal, making it a promising solution for future energy needs [9]. - The development of compact fusion reactors is being facilitated by high-temperature superconductors, which allow for smaller and more cost-effective designs compared to traditional fusion reactors [11]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite optimism in the investment community, significant challenges remain, including material durability under extreme conditions, tritium supply issues, and the need for high-throughput neutron sources for testing new materials [20][21]. - The timeline for commercial nuclear fusion is projected to extend to around 2050, with various milestones set for experimental and demonstration reactors in the coming decades [24][28]. - The current market for nuclear fusion equipment is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an annual scale of 266 billion yuan by 2035, but achieving this will require overcoming substantial technical and operational hurdles [27].