今早刷新闻，一眼瞅见商务部那则反歧视调查的公告，手里咖啡差点没端稳 —— 这美国今年跟芯片杠上了吧？年初卡 AI 芯片出口，九月又把设计、制造、连材料环节都圈进调查里，这绳子勒得也太紧了点！说实话啊，我倒不是怕制裁本身， 就是看全球供应链那慌慌张张的样儿，跟多米诺骨牌似的，碰一下倒一片，真有点哭笑不得。 美国想靠关税和禁令，把产业链往自己那边拽，这点心思谁看不出来啊？可他们忘了芯片制造有多复杂 —— 不是说搬个工 厂、招几个人就能解决的。三星、台积电就算在美设厂，芯片造出来还得运到海外封装，来回折腾不说，搞不好还得被重 复征税。我之前刷到个数据，美国一年要进口几百亿美元的芯片，好多还是自己企业海外工厂造的，这波操作简直是给自 己挖坑，还得自己跳！ 最让我意外的是中国这边的反应。一开始我还以为，咱们也就被动应对下，后来才发现，早就在偷偷布局了！芯片进口量 是降了，但买设备的钱反而涨了 —— 这明摆着是要自己搞研发啊！北方华创的刻蚀机都能突破 14 纳米工艺了，寒武纪的 算力芯片也能跟英伟达掰掰手腕。商务部这次发起反歧视调查，更像是吹响了反击的号角，总算把主动权抢回来点，看着 还挺解气的。 不过话说回来，供应链恐 ...

Summary of Semiconductor Materials Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $67.5 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1][4] - Wafer manufacturing materials account for 64% of the market, while packaging materials make up 36% [1][4] - The market size in mainland China is expected to reach $13.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8%, making it the second-largest market after Taiwan [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - Capital expenditure (Capex) in semiconductor equipment significantly influences operational expenditure (Opex) demand, with a robust growth forecast for Opex due to high Capex levels [1][5] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a capacity growth rate of about 15% in 2025-2026, with an industry beta coefficient growth potentially reaching 20%-30% due to increased capacity utilization [1][5][6] - Recovery in consumer electronics and automotive industries is driving marginal demand for semiconductors, with emerging applications like AI further increasing demand for underlying chips [1][8] - The IPO project of Huahong will release new capacity in the second half of the year, addressing market demand [1][9] Market Composition and Trends - Silicon wafers represent 38% of semiconductor materials, while photolithography machines and auxiliary materials account for 12% [1][10] - Domestic production rates for silicon wafers, CMP materials, and wet electronic chemicals have exceeded 40%, but photolithography resists and electronic gases still have room for improvement in domestic production [1][10] Specific Market Segments - The global semiconductor silicon wafer market saw a 6.5% decline last year, with domestic companies like Shanghai Silicon Industry and TCL Zhonghuan actively expanding production [2][11] - The electronic gas market consists of bulk gases (55%) and specialty gases (45%), with domestic production of specialty gases being less than 30% [2][12][14] - The specialty gas sector experienced revenue declines last year, but prices have stabilized and are expected to recover, marking a turning point for many gas companies [2][15] - The semiconductor mask market is primarily dominated by third-party manufacturers, with low domestic production rates but potential for growth from companies like Qingyi Optoelectronics [2][16] Company Performance and Projections - Major semiconductor material companies reported a total revenue of approximately 34 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%, but net profits fell by about 35% due to price competition and depreciation pressures [2][22] - Companies like Anji Technology and Dinglong Co. are positioned to benefit from industry growth, with Anji's revenue compound annual growth rate nearing 45% over the past five years [2][22] - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see a beta growth rate of 20-30% in the coming years, with potential for individual companies to achieve alpha growth through product expansion and increased domestic production [2][23] Investment Outlook - The semiconductor materials sector is viewed as having high certainty and is considered a promising investment direction, with some companies potentially doubling their stock value over three years [2][23] - Current stock prices of many material companies have retraced to bottom levels, making the third quarter of this year an opportune time for asset allocation [2][23]