2025 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 三季度拐点已现，代账新规下或迎来增长窗口期 ——税友股份（603171）2025 年三季报点评 事件: 2025 年 10 月 31 日，公司发布 2025 年三季报： 2025 年前三季度，营业收入 14.26 亿元，同比增长 11.10%；归母净利 润 1.10 亿元，同比减少 4.74%；扣非归母净利润 0.98 亿元，同比减少 7.64%。 AIBM 战略落地见效，G+B 双端优势稳固 2025 年第三季度，营业收入 5.04 亿元，同比增长 7.36%；归母净利润 0.39 亿元，同比大增 42.33%；扣非归母净利润 0.36 亿元，同比大增 54.23%。 受 AI 产品驱动，2025 年前三季度公司营业收入达 14.26 亿元，同 比增长 11.10%，保持稳健。"犀友"财税大模型与"数智工场"Agent 平台规模化落地带动产品结构升级，Q3 毛利率 59.41%，环比提升 2.11 pct；截至 8 月底 ...

中国税务学会副会长、中国人民大学朱青教授认为，OECD 的"双支柱"方案印证了国际税收的本质是一 种协调关系，当国际税收协调存在一定困难时，提议可以从《联合国税收协定范本》"12B方案"为突破 口，研究双边、简单且可操作的解决方案，等待多边协调的有利时机。 中国民航信息集团有限公司党委常委、副总经理李劲松表示，低空经济发展依赖"空中红绿灯"等数字基 础设施建设，不仅能拉动大规模投资，更可带动数字经济整体能力提升，将成为财税治理的新契机。 11月1日，"2025年新发展蓝图下数字经济财税治理"国际研讨会在北京国家会计学院召开。来自财政 部、国家税务总局、国家发展改革委等政府部门，国内外知名高校，以及有关企业的代表参加了此次研 讨会，共同就推动数字经济与财税治理展开深入讨论。 北京国家会计学院党委委员、副院长李旭红教授代表主办方致辞时表示，面对数字经济新浪潮，需构建 科学、公平、高效的数字财税治理体系，要立足新阶段中国式现代化的全局，系统谋划、统筹推进，以 数字化驱动治理能力现代化，以制度创新激发经济社会发展的新质生产力。为帮助数字经济行稳致远， 从长期来看，需要兼顾效率与公平，通过初次分配与再分配的联动调节，优 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guanzhong Ecology (SZ300948) has experienced a significant stock price surge after resuming trading, with shares rising from 11.2 CNY to 23.23 CNY, effectively doubling in value due to strategic capital operations involving major acquisitions and control changes [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Operations - The company announced two major transactions: a cash acquisition of 51% of Hangzhou Actuary AI Technology Co., Ltd. for an estimated valuation of no more than 560 million CNY, and a transfer of control to Hangzhou Deep Blue Financial Whale AI Technology Partnership [1][2]. - The acquisition will cost Guanzhong Ecology approximately 285.6 million CNY, while the actual controllers will realize over 326 million CNY through share transfers [1][2]. - The new controlling entity, Deep Blue Financial Whale, will gain control of Guanzhong Ecology at a low cost of 221 million CNY, acquiring 10.5% of the shares [2][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Guanzhong Ecology has shown weak performance since its IPO in 2021, with projected losses exceeding 70 million CNY in 2024. Revenue has declined from 402 million CNY in 2021 to an estimated 145 million CNY in 2024 [2][7]. - The company’s net profit has consistently decreased, with a notable loss of 70.9 million CNY in 2024, following a downward trend in previous years [7][9]. Group 3: Acquisition Target Analysis - Hangzhou Actuary AI, established only three years ago, reported a net profit of less than 8 million CNY in 2024, leading to a high valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 71 times [2][9]. - The acquisition target's operational scale is small, and its product launch is not expected until July 2025, raising questions about its ability to justify the high valuation [9][12]. Group 4: Corporate Structure and Control - Deep Blue Financial Whale was established in July 2023 and has not yet commenced actual operations. Its ownership structure indicates that the controlling interests are held by individuals with connections to the new controlling entity [5][9]. - The actual controllers of Guanzhong Ecology will transfer a total of 21.7 million shares, representing 15.5% of the total shares, with the first phase of the transfer already completed [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Company Guanzhong Ecological is planning a cross-industry acquisition of 51% of Hangzhou Jingsuanjia Artificial Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. for a valuation of up to 560 million yuan, despite facing significant financial challenges in its core ecological restoration business [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Guanzhong Ecological's revenue and performance have been declining since its listing in 2021, with a 52.33% year-on-year drop in revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to 52.51 million yuan, and a net loss of 3.19 million yuan [3][4]. - The company attributed its performance decline to tight government finances, leading to slow order fulfillment and difficulties in obtaining new orders [3][4]. - Despite previous expectations of achieving 200 to 300 million yuan in revenue for 2025, the actual performance fell significantly short of these projections [3]. Group 2: Acquisition Details - The acquisition target, Hangzhou Jingsuanjia, operates in the digital enterprise service sector, focusing on customized financial and tax services for small and micro enterprises, showing strong growth with projected revenues of 47.97 million yuan and net profits of 7.92 million yuan for 2024 [4][5]. - The acquisition involves a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 71 times based on Hangzhou Jingsuanjia's projected net profit, indicating a significant bet on the target's future growth [5][6]. - The transaction is classified as a related party transaction due to the involvement of Shenzhen Huawu Technology Co., Ltd., which will become the new controlling shareholder of Guanzhong Ecological [2][6]. Group 3: Performance Guarantees - A detailed performance commitment and compensation agreement has been established, requiring the target company to meet specific net profit targets from 2026 to 2028, with cash compensation to Guanzhong Ecological if targets are not met [6]. - The agreement includes provisions for asset impairment compensation and incentives for the target company's management team if they exceed performance expectations [6]. Group 4: Control Change - Concurrently with the acquisition announcement, Guanzhong Ecological disclosed plans for a change in control, with agreements in place for the transfer of shares to facilitate this transition [7].

Core Viewpoint - Under pressure from declining performance and control change planning, Guanzhong Ecology (300948.SZ) announced a "cross-border" acquisition plan to acquire 51% of Hangzhou Actuary Artificial Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. for a valuation of no more than 560 million yuan [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Guanzhong Ecology's revenue and performance have been declining since its listing in 2021, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in 2025 [3][4] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 52.51 million yuan, down 52.33% from 110 million yuan in the same period last year, and a net loss of 3.1861 million yuan, a decline of 137.20% [3][4] - The company attributed its performance decline to tight government finances, leading to slow order fulfillment and difficulties in obtaining new orders [3] Group 2: Acquisition Details - The acquisition target, Hangzhou Actuary, focuses on digital enterprise services, providing customized financial and tax services for small and micro enterprises, showing strong growth with projected revenue of 47.97 million yuan and net profit of 7.92 million yuan for 2024 [4][5] - The acquisition involves a high valuation of 560 million yuan, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 71 times based on Hangzhou Actuary's 2024 net profit [6] - A detailed performance commitment and compensation agreement has been established to ensure expected returns, with compensation obligations if performance targets are not met during the commitment period from 2026 to 2028 [6] Group 3: Control Change and Related Transactions - The transaction is classified as a related party transaction due to the involvement of Shenzhen Huawu Technology Co., Ltd., whose actual controller plans to become the new controlling shareholder of Guanzhong Ecology [7] - Guanzhong Investment and its actual controllers have signed agreements to transfer shares to facilitate this control change, with a total of 21.70 million shares, representing 15.50% of the total shares, to be transferred in two phases [7]

Core Insights - The 10th Kingdee Cloud Accounting Festival, themed "AI + Taxation, Achieving Excellence," was held in Kunming, Yunnan, gathering over 2,000 entrepreneurs, experts, and accounting professionals to discuss the transformation paths for accountants in the AI era [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Accounting work is considered a crucial foundation of the market economy, and professionals need to enhance their skills and capabilities to strengthen compliance in the face of digital transformation [3]. - The integration of AI in financial management is expected to shift the value model for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from a "gyroscope" to an "hourglass" structure, allowing AI to handle standard and procedural tasks while amplifying decision support and business analysis [3]. Group 2: Company Initiatives - Kingdee Cloud launched the "Star AI Taxation Intelligent Application" to help SMEs and accountants seize new opportunities in AI taxation, focusing on core financial scenarios such as data collection, bookkeeping, tax reporting, compliance, and analysis [7]. - The application aims to automate basic transactional tasks, enabling accountants to concentrate on value creation and strategic business analysis, thereby assisting enterprises in achieving better development [7]. Group 3: Event Highlights - A roundtable forum titled "Embracing AI, Solving Real Problems" was held, featuring discussions among tax experts, financial managers, and corporate executives on the practical applications of AI in financial management [5]. - A presentation by a renowned tax training expert focused on the three main drivers of financial transformation and the pathways to realizing financial management value, including how SMEs can build effective financial management systems [5].