Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, with a mid - term view of oscillation and an overall reference view of range - bound oscillation [1][5]. - The core logic is that although the 11 - month manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand, the expectation of policy benefits is strong, especially looking forward to the incremental policy benefits from the December Central Economic Work Conference. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, the risk of the AI asset investment bubble has decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. The support for stock indices is strong due to the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of long - term funds entering the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the fermentation of policy benefit expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly stronger, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indices rebounded oscillatingly yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The expectation of policy benefits is strong, and the support for stock indices is strong [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期发酵 VS 资金了结意 愿上升 | 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡反弹，其中 IM 与 IC 表现偏强。股市全市场成交额 1.59 万亿元，较 上日成交额缩量 1257 亿元。最新公布的 10 月宏观数据边际走弱，消费增速放缓，固投增速回落，规 上企业利润同比增速回落，社融信贷数据走弱等，这说明宏观内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来政 策面利好预期仍较强。加上长线资金入市趋势不变，股指的支撑力量较强。叠加近期海外美联储降息 预期上升，AI 资产投资泡沫风险降温，风险偏好企稳，股指触底回升。不过 12 月中央经济工作会议 之前政策面增量信息较少，股指上行驱动力有所不足 ...