期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 6 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货继续窄幅震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均继续窄幅震荡整理。一方面，由于宏观内需有效需求不 足的问题仍存，未来货币信用环境偏宽松，未来降息预期仍存；另一方面， 政策面以结构性宽松为主，短期内全面降息的可能性较低。随着中东地缘危 机的影响逐渐被市场所消化，国债期货的单边驱动较弱。总的来说，短期内 国债期货以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 国债期货 | 日报 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 4 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续窄幅震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。目前市场的主要逻辑已经由地缘危机 带来的避险情绪转变为对全球能源供给紧张引发全球通胀飙升的宏观担 忧。从国债基本面角度来看，2026 年 2 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，处于收缩区间，宏观内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来货 币信用环境偏宽松，未来降息预期仍存，但是降息预计以结构性政策为主， 且短期内全面降息的可能性较低。因此国债期货上行动能与下行空间均有 所受限。总的来说，短期内国债期货以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 期货研究报告 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view of the stock index futures is range - bound in the short term due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors, with the current market main line unclear. For IH2512, the short - term and medium - term views are both oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the fermentation of policy - favorable expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to liquidate [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. Last Friday, each stock index rebounded oscillatory, with IM and IC showing strong performance. The full - market turnover of the stock market was 1.59 trillion yuan, a contraction of 125.7 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The latest macro data in October showed marginal weakness, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. However, there are still strong expectations of policy - side benefits, and long - term funds are still entering the market. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas and the cooling of the investment bubble risk of AI assets have also contributed to the rebound of the stock index. But there is less incremental information on the policy side before the Central Economic Work Conference in December, so the upward driving force of the stock index is insufficient [5]