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晨会纪要:开源晨会1016-20251015
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-10-15 15:40
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the potential for PPI to turn positive, with September CPI at -0.3%, PPI at -2.3%, and expectations for both being slightly negative [5][9][12] - Core CPI has shown a seasonal decline, with September's core CPI remaining at 0%, marking the first time since April 2025 that it fell below seasonal expectations [10][11] - The report anticipates that if PPI remains at 0% from October 2025 onward, the average PPI for 2026 could be around -0.7% [14] Group 2: Electronic Industry Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization in domestic AI hardware, focusing on the synergy of computing power, storage, and operational capacity [18][19] - The demand for Scaleup and Scaleout hardware is expected to grow significantly, with the global market for Scaleup exchange chips projected to reach nearly $18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 28% from 2022 to 2030 [19] - The report identifies a low domestic production rate for operational hardware, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic replacements in the market [21] Group 3: Robotics Industry Insights - The report introduces Figure03, a humanoid robot designed for mass production, emphasizing safety and comfort in home environments [23][24] - Figure03 features advanced capabilities such as tactile sensors for stable operation in limited visibility environments and supports wireless charging for continuous operation [24][25] - The report notes that Figure aims to produce over 100,000 units within four years, with a projected valuation of nearly $40 billion, supported by significant investments from major tech companies [24][26]
开源证券:国产Scale-up/Scale-out硬件商业化提速 聚焦AI运力产业投资机遇
智通财经网· 2025-10-15 07:35
Core Viewpoint - The traditional computing architecture is insufficient for the efficient, low-energy, and large-scale collaborative AI training needs, leading to the trend of supernodes which significantly boosts the demand for Scale up-related hardware [1][3] Group 1: AI Hardware Capabilities - AI hardware capabilities are driven by three main factors: computing power (determined by GPU performance and quantity), storage capacity (high-bandwidth memory cache close to GPUs), and communication capacity (encompassing Scale up, Scale out, and Scale across scenarios) [1][2] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The market for Scale up switching chips is expected to reach nearly $18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 28% from 2022 to 2030, driven by the demand for supernodes [3] - The construction of large-scale AI clusters necessitates extensive interconnectivity between nodes, leading to increased demand for Scale out hardware, while power resource limitations in single regions will promote the adoption of Scale across solutions [3] Group 3: Communication Protocols - Different communication protocols are required for Scale up and Scale out, with major companies developing proprietary protocols alongside third-party and smaller firms promoting public protocols [4] - Notable proprietary protocols for Scale up include NVIDIA's NVlink and AMD's Infinity Fabric, while public protocols include Broadcom's SUE and PCIe [4] Group 4: Domestic Hardware Development - The domestic production rate of communication hardware is currently very low, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic replacement in the market [5] - Companies like Shudao Technology and Shengke Communication are advancing towards commercialization of their products, indicating a growing domestic market potential [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Beneficiaries of PCIe hardware include Wantong Development and Lanke Technology, while Ethernet hardware beneficiaries include Shengke Communication and ZTE [6]