存储产业链的主要逻辑是什么？未来的市场前景如何？ 当前存储产业链的主要逻辑在于 AI，尤其是在训练和推理两个方面都有显著拉 动。我们预计 2026 年存储价格将保持强势，最看好的是涨价后的设备产业链 以及设计端的兆易创新。从资本开支层面来看，全球 DRAM 行业 2026 年的资 本开支增长率预计为 14%，达到 613 亿美元，而 NAND 则增长 5%，达到 220 亿美元。三星和海力士更侧重于 HBM DRAM，美光则双线并进，而闪迪 和凯霞由于没有 DRAM 业务，在 NAND 方面的投资更为积极。 从需求侧来看， 无论是训练还是推理，对存储的需求都在增加。训练数据需要从 HDD 或 SSD 加载到 DRAM，再进入 HBM 和 GPU 进行计算，同时模型训练过程中需要频繁 保存和加载数据，这使得 HBM 成为核心收益方向。而在推理端，KV Cache 和 RAG（Retrieval-Augmented Generation）也带来了大量需求。KV 2026 年初，预计部分厂商的市场份额将集中落地和交易，MatePad CPX 等产品以及正交方案都在向马 9 升级，Q 布的使用可能性大幅增加， 部分材 ...

Core Insights - Shenghong Technology (300476) reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 260.52% [1] - The company’s Q3 revenue was 5.086 billion yuan, up 78.95% year-on-year, while the total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 14.117 billion yuan, reflecting an 83.4% increase [1] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity, with construction projects increasing nearly 13 times year-on-year and contract liabilities rising 126% [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.102 billion yuan, marking a 260.52% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2025 stood at 3.78 yuan, with a net profit of 3.245 billion yuan, up 324.38% year-on-year [1] Investment and Funding - The company plans to raise up to 1.9 billion yuan through a private placement to fund projects in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as to supplement working capital and repay bank loans [2] - The actual fundraising from the recent stock issuance was approximately 1.876 billion yuan after deducting issuance costs, with the price per share set at 248.02 yuan [2] - Shenghong Technology is also planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having submitted an application for H-share listing on August 20 [2] Stock Market Activity - Since July, Shenghong Technology's stock price has surged over 153%, attracting retail investors and private equity, while institutional shareholders have begun to reduce their holdings [3] - Notable retail investor "Gao Chao" has entered as the ninth largest circulating shareholder, while several institutional investors have initiated sell-offs [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is actively embracing opportunities and challenges brought by the AI wave, achieving significant results in various downstream application areas, particularly in data centers and AI servers [3][4]. - The company has become the world's largest automotive PCB supplier in 2024, with expectations for substantial growth in the automotive business due to increasing penetration of AI applications in vehicles [3][4]. - The company is expanding its high-end PCB production capacity to meet the growing demand from AI servers and related fields, with significant investments planned for upgrading existing facilities and constructing new ones [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.06% [2]. - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.981 billion yuan, 17.705 billion yuan, and 20.893 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57 yuan, 2.04 yuan, and 2.56 yuan [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a core supplier of PCBs for AI servers, with competitive advantages in high-end PCB mass production capabilities and established long-term strategic partnerships with leading global clients [4][6]. - The company plans to invest 5 billion yuan in its Zhuhai Jinwan base to enhance high-end production capacity, focusing on technology upgrades and new production lines for AI server high-end HDI boards [6][7]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing growth in AI computing demand, with a robust pipeline of orders in AI servers and high-end optical modules [3][4]. - The anticipated release of high-end production capacity across global manufacturing bases is expected to open new avenues for revenue growth in the AI server business [6][7].