We are optimistic about ASMPT's growth potential in TCB tools, supported by growing adoptions in HBM and logic advanced packaging. The migration from HBM3E to HBM4 will drive further applications of ASMPT's TCB tools, with higher requirements for pitch size and accuracy. ASMPT has been engaging with customers regarding TCB for HBM4 manufacturing. Meanwhile, although the company's Book-to-Bill ratio for semiconductor segments remains below 1.0, we see more positive signs, including increasing capex from Chin ...

on 24-Sep-2025 24 September 2025 Global Semis Global Semis: SiC for advanced packaging? Identifying the investment opportunities David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang +852 2123 2632 juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano +44 207 762 1857 carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com According to news reports, TSMC is considering usi ...

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Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong are rising against the trend, with notable increases in shares of SMIC (3.3%), Hongguang Semiconductor (nearly 2%), and Huahong Semiconductor (1.5%) [1] - Recent industry news indicates a surge in semiconductor-related activities, with several domestic tech giants entering chip development and Huawei announcing the timeline for the iteration of its Ascend chips [1] - SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor have optimistic outlooks regarding future orders and market conditions [1] Group 2 - Major news in the sector includes the upcoming IPO of Moore Threads on the STAR Market, scheduled for September 26, which is positioned as a leading domestic GPU company [1] - Moore Threads focuses on providing computing acceleration platforms for AI, digital twins, and scientific computing, filling several gaps in the domestic GPU market [1] - According to recent analysis from Founder Securities, advanced packaging is becoming a crucial direction for domestic computing chips to overcome performance bottlenecks, with companies like Huawei, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information accelerating their chip iterations [1]

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Industry Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) - **Region**: Japan - **Outlook**: Attractive [1] Key Points Market Performance and Valuations - The stock price performance of major companies in the SPE industry shows varied results, with Disco outperforming the market significantly [3][60]. - Valuations for companies such as Disco, Advantest, and SCREEN Holdings indicate potential returns of 55.1%, -10.4%, and 18.5% respectively [5]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - **Disco**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 70,300, Current Price JPY 45,320 - **KOKUSAI ELECTRIC**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 3,600, Current Price JPY 3,755 - **Ulvac**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 6,400, Current Price JPY 6,456 - **Advantest**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 12,400, Current Price JPY 13,845 - **Lasertec**: Underweight, Price Target JPY 10,400, Current Price JPY 16,720 - **Ushio**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 2,200, Current Price JPY 2,239 - **Nikon**: Underweight, Price Target JPY 1,000, Current Price JPY 1,739 - **SCREEN Holdings**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 15,200, Current Price JPY 12,830 - **Tokyo Electron**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 23,700, Current Price JPY 24,250 [5]. Industry Drivers - The demand for advanced packaging and high bandwidth memory (HBM) is driving growth in the SPE sector. - Significant investments in semiconductor manufacturing are being made, particularly in response to AI-related demands [21][24]. - The introduction of new technologies such as Panel Level Packaging (PLP) is expected to enhance production efficiency [18]. Market Trends - The NAND market is projected to experience a shift into shortage by the second half of 2026 due to increased AI demand, despite current pricing reflecting weaker consumer demand [44]. - The adoption of eSSD (enterprise SSD) is accelerating, with projections indicating that AI-related NAND shipments will reach 431 exabytes by 2029 [44]. Risks and Challenges - Ongoing restrictions on semiconductor exports to China pose risks to the industry, necessitating a reduction in dependence on Chinese manufacturing capabilities [24]. - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges related to supply chain constraints and fluctuating demand across different segments [21]. Future Outlook - The SPE market is expected to continue growing, with revenue forecasts indicating an increase from $117.171 billion in 2025 to $130.989 billion by 2027 [42]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at advanced packaging and HBM technologies, which will be crucial for meeting the demands of AI applications [73]. Conclusion The Semiconductor Production Equipment industry in Japan is positioned for growth, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand from AI applications. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market fluctuations to capitalize on these opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - Amtech Systems (ASYS) has experienced a significant share price increase of 67.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Semiconductor - General industry's decline of 6.7%, primarily due to better-than-expected third-quarter results for fiscal 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The third-quarter revenues reached $19.6 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16 million, while the non-GAAP EPS was 6 cents, surpassing the consensus mark of a loss of 8 cents, boosting investor confidence [2][9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 is a loss of 6 cents per share, an improvement from a projected loss of 63 cents 60 days ago, with fiscal 2026 earnings estimated at 15 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 350% [13]. Market Position and Competitors - Amtech Systems has outperformed industry peers such as NVIDIA (NVDA), STMicroelectronics (STM), and Texas Instruments (TXN), with STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments gaining only 4.7% and 0.7% respectively, while NVIDIA shares declined by 4.8% [3]. - ASYS is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.42X, significantly lower than the industry's 13.96X and also below competitors like NVIDIA (17.07X), STMicroelectronics (1.85X), and Texas Instruments (8.98X) [9][16]. Growth Opportunities - The advanced semiconductor packaging industry is projected to grow from $51.62 billion in 2025 to $89.89 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.73%, indicating strong long-term prospects for Amtech Systems [6]. - The company has identified advanced packaging, particularly within AI infrastructure, as a significant growth opportunity, with sales of AI-related equipment increasing fivefold year-over-year, contributing to 25% of Thermal Processing Solutions' revenues [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Amtech Systems has made substantial progress in restructuring operations to enhance cost efficiency, reducing its manufacturing sites from seven to four and adopting a semi-fabless manufacturing model, resulting in $13 million in annual savings [11]. - The company has proactively adjusted pricing strategies to improve product margins and is focusing on a stronger mix of AI-related equipment and recurring revenues from consumables and services [12]. Conclusion - Amtech Systems is well-positioned for growth, driven by rising demand for advanced packaging and capital equipment, supported by strategic investments and a favorable industry outlook, making it a compelling buying opportunity for investors [17].

Key Takeaways Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenues hit $5.43B in Q3, up 10% year over year.AMAT sees leading-edge DRAM revenues rising 50% in fiscal 2025 with major demand tailwinds.Weaker Q4 guidance reflects China capacity digestion, export license backlog, and demand timing.Applied Materials’ (AMAT) Semiconductor Systems segment is shining on the back of strong demand for foundry-logic, DRAM and NAND products. AMAT is experiencing strong wins in deposition, etch, and new DRAM solutions, lead ...

Company Overview - KLA reported a strong performance in the June quarter, leading to an optimistic outlook for the September quarter and the year 2025 [2] - The business is primarily driven by developments in the high-performance compute market [2] Market Dynamics - The logic segment is experiencing significant growth due to the N2 build-out, which has positively impacted KLA's market share and operational intensity [3] - High-bandwidth memory is creating new opportunities for process control advancements, which KLA is excited about [3] - Advanced packaging is also emerging as a growth opportunity, driven by increasing complexity in packaging and KLA's ability to differentiate its offerings [3] Business Trajectory - KLA expresses confidence in the positive trajectory of its business, supported by the aforementioned market trends and opportunities [4]

Summary of Nova (NVMI) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nova (NVMI) - **Event**: Citi Global TMT Conference - **Date**: September 04, 2025 Industry Insights - **Market Outlook**: Nova expects to outpace the market in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth in 2025, with a mid-guidance of $221 million in Q3 [2][3] - **Memory Market**: Anticipated growth in memory, particularly DRAM, with double-digit growth in advanced packaging [2][3] - **Logic Market**: Overall logic market may see a slight decline, but leading-edge nodes are expected to grow [2][3] Key Points - **Growth Projections**: Nova is on track to outperform WFE growth, which is projected to be mid-single digits, slightly lower than earlier expectations [2][3] - **Advanced Packaging**: Significant growth opportunities in advanced packaging due to increasing complexity and demand for process control [5][6] - **Technology Differentiation**: Nova's unique X-ray technology for material characterization positions it as a leader in the market, with capabilities that few competitors possess [9][10] - **Gate-All-Around (GAA) Technology**: Nova has secured a strong position with four leading-edge customers, projecting $500 million in revenues from GAA between 2024 and 2026 [16][18] - **China Market**: Nova anticipates a flat to slight decline in business from China, contrasting with peers expecting a 20% drop. Nova's revenue from China is projected to be slightly up [19][20] - **Market Share Growth**: Nova's market share increased from 20% in 2023 to 24.8% in 2024, making it the second-largest player after KLA [23][24] - **Service Business Growth**: Nova expects double-digit growth in its service business, supported by an installed base of over 6,400 tools [34] Financial Strategies - **Convertible Note Offering**: Nova issued a $650 million convertible note to fund corporate development, infrastructure, and potential acquisitions, aiming for $150 to $200 million in inorganic growth by 2027 [35][36][37] Additional Insights - **Acquisition of Syntronics**: The integration of Syntronics is progressing well, with a focus on direct sales and service, enhancing Nova's capabilities in the market [31][32] - **Chemical Metrology**: Nova is leveraging its frontend technology to capture market share in the backend, particularly in advanced packaging [25][26][27] - **Future Opportunities**: Nova is actively pursuing growth opportunities in both mature and leading-edge logic markets, with a focus on global infrastructure to support new fabs [40][41]

Summary of Lam Research Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lam Research - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing a powerful confluence of spending drivers, particularly in non-lithography areas such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and advanced packaging [4][6][10] - There is a notable divergence in performance among peers, with Lam Research expected to outperform the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market by over 20 points this year [6][10] Market Outlook - The WFE outlook is projected at $105 billion, with a flat second half compared to the first half [6] - Lam Research's Serviceable Available Market (SAM) is expected to be in the mid-30% range this year, with long-term goals of reaching the high 30% [6][10] - The company anticipates that etch and deposition will account for a growing share of WFE spending, moving from low 30% to high 30% by the end of the decade [8][10] Product Portfolio Strength - Lam Research has introduced new tools such as Halo (metalization), Akara (conductor etch), and Vantex (dielectric etch), which are seeing strong customer demand [9][10] - The company believes it can capture 50% of the growing SAM due to the strength of its product portfolio [10] Foundry and Logic Market - Foundry sales are becoming a significant part of Lam's business, with gate-all-around technology driving investments [20][22] - The company is seeing a transformation in its revenue composition, with foundry sales now representing 52% of system sales, compared to memory's previous dominance [22] NAND Market Insights - NAND equipment spending is currently at about half of its peak of $20.1 billion, with Lam Research focusing on conversion-related spending to upgrade the installed base [26][28] - The company expects approximately $40 billion in conversion-related spending over the next several years, with a significant share of that going to Lam [28][29] Advanced Packaging Growth - Advanced packaging is projected to grow significantly, from 1% of WFE to 6%, with revenues increasing from over $1 billion to north of $3 billion [30][31] - The growth is driven by high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions, particularly in AI compute applications [32] Financial Performance and Margins - Lam Research has improved its gross margins to 50%, up from 46% previously, due to a favorable customer mix and a close-to-customer manufacturing strategy [36][37] - Guidance for December suggests a potential decrease in gross margins to around 48% due to a less favorable customer mix and higher tariffs [37][58] Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) - The CSBG is expected to see modest growth driven by higher utilization rates and advanced service offerings [42][46] - The focus is shifting towards outcome-based services, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [46][47] Regulatory and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. Commerce Department's revocation of waivers for international customers will require Lam to apply for licenses in partnership with customers, with expectations for approval [18][60] - The company has a global manufacturing presence, allowing it to adapt to tariff environments effectively [57][58] Capital Allocation Strategy - Lam Research plans to return at least 85% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a recent 13% increase in dividends [60][61] Additional Important Insights - The company is collaborating with ASML on the Aether dry-resist solution, which has the potential to generate $1.5 billion in revenue over the next five years [50][51] - There is a growing share in mature foundries, particularly in China, as the company navigates the end of the inventory cycle [56]