Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology's latest quarterly earnings report and guidance have disappointed Wall Street, raising concerns about the company's prospects in the AI spending boom [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya downgraded Marvell's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and reduced the price target from $90 to $78 due to rising uncertainties regarding AI growth prospects [1] - Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton also lowered the price target, expressing a lack of optimism about the company's future, particularly concerning next-generation chip business with Amazon and Microsoft [1] Group 2: Growth Projections and Market Concerns - Arya noted two main uncertainties: delays in the Maia project with Microsoft, potentially pushing timelines from FY2027 to FY2028, and Marvell's share in Amazon's next-generation 3nm chip project [1] - The expected year-over-year growth rate for Marvell's data center business in calendar year 2026 has been revised down from 23%-25% to mid-teens levels [1] - Bolton indicated that while custom chip business is expected to grow in the second half of FY2026 compared to the first half, a significant decline of approximately 15% is anticipated in Q3 FY2026, followed by a strong rebound in Q4 [2]

Core Insights - Nvidia's stock has increased by 23% since early January and is up nearly 80% from April lows, driven by strong AI demand [1] - Concerns arise from customer concentration, with one customer accounting for 16% and another for 14% of revenue in Q1 FY'26, an increase from the previous year [1] Customer Spending - Major customers like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to spend significantly on AI infrastructure, with Amazon projected to invest up to $105 billion in 2025 and others forecasted to spend between $72 billion and $80 billion [3] - Despite current high spending, there are doubts about the sustainability of this investment trend in the long term [3] Economic Viability of AI Investments - The returns on AI investments, particularly for GPU applications, remain uncertain, with many customers not yet seeing meaningful returns [4] - For instance, Google's core search business is facing disruption from AI tools, which may affect its willingness to invest heavily in Nvidia's GPUs [4] Demand for GPU Training - The demand for AI model training, which has heavily relied on Nvidia's GPUs, may slow down as the process is compute-intensive and often front-loaded [5] - As performance gains diminish and high-quality training data becomes scarce, future GPU demand could weaken [5] In-House Chip Development - Major tech companies are developing their own AI chips, such as Google's TPU and Amazon's Maia, which could reduce reliance on Nvidia and increase their bargaining power [6][7] - This trend poses a potential vulnerability for Nvidia, as its revenue is concentrated among a few hyperscalers who are also emerging as competitors [7] Financial Performance and Risks - Nvidia's revenues have more than doubled over the past year, with projections for over 50% growth this year, but these depend on continued demand from hyperscalers [8] - A pullback in spending from major customers could lead to lower pricing and volumes, significantly impacting Nvidia's profitability and valuation multiples [8]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported mixed performance for Q2 2025, with the main brand showing low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands experienced higher growth rates, indicating a diversified brand performance strategy [1][2] Group 1: Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, with children's products performing better than bulk goods [1] - FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q2 2025, meeting expectations, with children's and Fusion products showing strong performance [1] - Other brands experienced a significant growth of 50-55% in Q2 2025, with Descente and KOLON showing over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.72, 5.26, and 5.88 CNY respectively, with a target price of 113.6 HKD based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, was completed in Q2 2025, which is expected to enhance Anta's presence in the outdoor market in China [2] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to strengthen its offline presence while enhancing online sales strategies [1]

Core Insights - The North American large CSPs are the main drivers of AI Server market demand expansion, with a forecasted 24.3% year-on-year growth in global AI Server shipments for this year, slightly revised down due to international circumstances [1][4] Group 1: North American CSPs - Microsoft is focusing on AI investments, which has somewhat suppressed the procurement of general-purpose servers, primarily utilizing NVIDIA's GPU AI solutions for AI Server deployment [1] - Meta has significantly increased its demand for general-purpose servers due to new data center openings, primarily using AMD platforms, and is actively expanding its AI Server infrastructure with self-developed ASICs expected to double in shipments by 2026 [1] - Google has benefited from sovereign cloud projects and new data centers in Southeast Asia, significantly boosting server demand, and has begun mainstream production of its TPU v6e for AI inference [2] - AWS is focusing on its self-developed Trainium v2 platform, with plans for Trainium v3 development expected to launch in 2026, anticipating a doubling of its self-developed ASIC shipments by 2025 [2] - Oracle is emphasizing the procurement of AI Servers and In-Memory Database Servers, actively integrating its core cloud database and AI applications [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Due to international circumstances, many Server Enterprise OEMs are reassessing their market plans for the second half of 2025, with an overall forecast of approximately 5% year-on-year growth in total server shipments, including both general-purpose and AI Servers [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $133.02 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of ASIC servers and Ethernet switches, benefiting from the growth in AI inference demand, particularly from major cloud service providers in North America [2][3]. - The company is expected to recover from a short-term decline in server revenue due to Google's TPU product transition, with anticipated growth resuming in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base for ASIC servers, having become a supplier for Meta and secured a project with a leading commercial AI company [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Layout in ASIC Servers and Ethernet Switches - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, and the ASIC industry chain is expected to benefit from this trend [14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the volume growth of ASIC servers and the expansion of its customer base, particularly with Google and Meta [27][31]. - The Ethernet switch business is poised to grow due to the trend of AI Ethernet networking, with increased demand for high-speed switches [32]. 2. Transition from EMS to ODM - The company is shifting from an EMS model to an ODM model, which is expected to enhance customer binding and improve profitability [47]. - The revenue from the hardware platform solutions (ODM) is projected to grow significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [50][52]. - The company's gross margin and operating profit margin have been steadily increasing due to the growth of its ODM business [52]. 3. ASIC Industry and Company Alpha - The company is well-positioned in the ASIC server and Ethernet ODM switch market, benefiting from industry trends and new customer acquisitions [3][4]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly over the next few years, with expected profits of $593 million, $765 million, and $871 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The company is expected to gain market share as it expands its customer base and increases the complexity of its products [31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $7.96 billion in 2023 to $15.89 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from $467 million in 2023 to $1.296 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [8].