Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - DH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. Consider narrowing PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of a low CP official price at the end of the month [1] - The PG market has declined significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread have changed. Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price was the lowest in two years [1] - The inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate has decreased, and some plants have shut down with one expected to resume next week [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On October 15, compared with the previous day, civil gas prices in East China decreased by 9 to 4374, in Shandong by 90 to 4350, and remained unchanged in South China at 4530. Ether - post - carbon four decreased by 20 to 4460 [1] - **Weekly Changes**: PG prices in different regions changed. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread changed. FEI and CP had small fluctuations. PDH profit, inventory, and supply - demand situations also had corresponding changes [1] Market Indicators - **Price and Spread**: The 10 - month CP official price was 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. FEI and CP month spreads, and various internal and external spreads (PG - CP, PG - FEI, FEI - CP) changed [1] - **Arbitrage Window**: The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. AFEI and CP South China arrival discounts are given. Freight rates have dropped significantly [1] - **Profit**: PDH propylene production spot profit changed little, and PP production profit rebounded from a low level [1] - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: Inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Future three months, supply to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. With OPEC+增产预期, international propane under pressure, domestic refinery gas facing high pressure, LPG prices expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From September 24 to September 30, 2025, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,MB丙烷现货,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 all changed. For example,华南液化气 remained at 4600 on September 24 - 25, then rose to 4650 on September 26, and dropped to 4640 on September 29 - 30 [1] - On October 6 compared to pre - holiday,华东低位 was 4363 (+0),山东 was 4540 (-10),华南 was 4600 (-40), and醚后碳四 was 4550 (+0). Lowest delivery location was华东 with a基差 of 70 (-33), and 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1] Price Influencing Factors - On September 30, October CP official price opened lower than expected. Propane and butane were 495 and 475 respectively, down 25 and 15 dollars/ton from last month, possibly due to ongoing long - term contract negotiations and Saudi Arabia's price cut for competitiveness [1] - FEI and CP Nov decreased, 513 (-10) and 478 (-13.4) dollars/ton respectively [1] Market Situation - Externally, Middle East supply in tight balance, US inventory at a record high with high export load. Demand from Japan, South Korea's chemical industry, China's PDH procurement, and India's peak - season stocking, but warm - winter expectation may suppress Japan and South Korea's inventory replenishment. US - to - Far - East shipping freight dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window was closed [1] - Domestically, before the holiday, upstream inventory clearance and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously with small price fluctuations. During the holiday, tourism peak boosted demand, but the weak international market pressured prices. More arrivals and limited holiday transport capacity led to upstream inventory accumulation, with refineries facing high inventory pressure and ports at a neutral inventory level [1] Industry Forecast - Supply to have minor fluctuations in the next three months, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. On September 26, PDH plant operation rate was 69.5%. Before the holiday, Tianjin Bohua, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Hebei Haiwei had maintenance plans in early October. Lower raw material arrival prices eased PDH profit (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profit, procurement of醚后碳四 was inactive [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - During the May Day holiday, the decline of the foreign LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official prices of May CP were higher than market expectations, and the increase of CP discount drove up the import cost, providing some support for the propane price. The domestic civil gas price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4,820 yuan/ton. The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations [1]. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Price Information - From April 24 to April 30, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different trends. The daily change on April 30 showed that the price of propane CFR South China increased by 17, propane CIF Japan decreased by 8, MB propane spot decreased by 9, CP forecast contract price decreased by 9, Shandong ether - after carbon four increased by 50, and the paper import profit decreased by 136, while the主力基差 decreased by 1 [1]. - On May 4, for civil gas, the price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 4,820, remained flat in East China at 4,925, and increased by 90 to 5,180 in South China; for imported gas, the price in East China increased by 15 to 5,158, and in South China increased by 80 to 5,230; the price of ether - after carbon four increased by 50 to 4,970. The lowest price was the civil gas in Shandong at 4,820 [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Before the holiday, the PG futures market oscillated, with the basis of the 06 contract at 420 and the PG06 - 07 monthly spread at 94, which narrowed. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1]. - Fundamentally, the high arrival volume led to obvious port inventory accumulation; the factory inventory decreased slightly due to upstream price - cutting to clear inventory before the holiday, but the downstream replenishment demand was average. After the holiday, the arrival volume is expected to decline gradually, especially the arrival of US goods. The upstream refinery supply is expected to be stable in the short term, with an expected increase in June. Chemical demand is expected to be average, with weak demand for alkylated oil, limited willingness of factories to increase production in the short term; MTBE is expected to operate weakly overall; some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement problems [1].