| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 7680 | -179 | 220 | | 2025/09/2 6 | 4650 | 4393 | 4580 | 584 | 532 | 73 | 543 | 4620 | 76 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - LPG market sentiment has marginally improved recently, with the external market price rebounding continuously and the PG futures showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, the market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward drivers. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, yet the global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. As the LPG price rebounds, PDH profits shrink again, and the device operating rate has dropped to around 70% this week, creating resistance in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4580 - 4705 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 605 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4733 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 578 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4678 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and butane was 4522 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong and South China dropped, while the mainstream transaction price in the East China civil gas market remained stable with a fair sales atmosphere [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the expected upside space is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].