Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Future three months, supply to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. With OPEC+增产预期, international propane under pressure, domestic refinery gas facing high pressure, LPG prices expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From September 24 to September 30, 2025, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,MB丙烷现货,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 all changed. For example,华南液化气 remained at 4600 on September 24 - 25, then rose to 4650 on September 26, and dropped to 4640 on September 29 - 30 [1] - On October 6 compared to pre - holiday,华东低位 was 4363 (+0),山东 was 4540 (-10),华南 was 4600 (-40), and醚后碳四 was 4550 (+0). Lowest delivery location was华东 with a基差 of 70 (-33), and 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1] Price Influencing Factors - On September 30, October CP official price opened lower than expected. Propane and butane were 495 and 475 respectively, down 25 and 15 dollars/ton from last month, possibly due to ongoing long - term contract negotiations and Saudi Arabia's price cut for competitiveness [1] - FEI and CP Nov decreased, 513 (-10) and 478 (-13.4) dollars/ton respectively [1] Market Situation - Externally, Middle East supply in tight balance, US inventory at a record high with high export load. Demand from Japan, South Korea's chemical industry, China's PDH procurement, and India's peak - season stocking, but warm - winter expectation may suppress Japan and South Korea's inventory replenishment. US - to - Far - East shipping freight dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window was closed [1] - Domestically, before the holiday, upstream inventory clearance and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously with small price fluctuations. During the holiday, tourism peak boosted demand, but the weak international market pressured prices. More arrivals and limited holiday transport capacity led to upstream inventory accumulation, with refineries facing high inventory pressure and ports at a neutral inventory level [1] Industry Forecast - Supply to have minor fluctuations in the next three months, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. On September 26, PDH plant operation rate was 69.5%. Before the holiday, Tianjin Bohua, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Hebei Haiwei had maintenance plans in early October. Lower raw material arrival prices eased PDH profit (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profit, procurement of醚后碳四 was inactive [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - LPG market sentiment has marginally improved recently, with the external market price rebounding continuously and the PG futures showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, the market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward drivers. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, yet the global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. As the LPG price rebounds, PDH profits shrink again, and the device operating rate has dropped to around 70% this week, creating resistance in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4580 - 4705 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 605 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4733 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 578 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4678 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and butane was 4522 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong and South China dropped, while the mainstream transaction price in the East China civil gas market remained stable with a fair sales atmosphere [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the expected upside space is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].