展望未来，林丽认为，随着市场环境持续优化以及行业自身不断迭代升级，私募行业将朝着更加多元、 成熟的方向发展，展现出更为稳健与可持续的增长态势。 2026年A股市场走势牵动市场神经，政策导向、产业升级、资金流向等多重变量交织共振，市场亟待权 威研判指引方向。 和谐汇一董事总经理韩冬认为，当前时点，AI行业的投资机会是不是要从硬件侧往软件侧上做一些倾 斜。在传统的IT架构里，硬件层和软件层的产值比例大概是1：4，但是如今在AI领域反而是硬件产值远 大于软件产值，硬件的投入还没有足够的软件收入作为回报。他们觉得未来这种情况会被纠正，这个过 程可能会随着应用侧的爆发而到来。 2025年，中国私募证券资产管理规模历史性突破7万亿元大关。市场稳步上行与策略创新双轮驱动行业 进阶，而市场与行业结构的不断细分、行业内竞争的日趋激烈、全球大环境的不稳定，再加上AI技术 普及带来的行业变革冲击，共同为行业发展提出了全新命题。如何在机遇与挑战并存的新格局中精准定 位、实现持续进化，已成为全行业的核心议题。 1月8日，由排排网集团主办，银河期货、方正证券、希施玛数科、中辉期货、私募排排网、国联期货协 办的第二十届私募基金发展论坛在深 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Trend Rising: CTA Allocation Opportunities Under Expectations [1] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [3] - Researchers: Zhao Jiayu, Qiao Lei, Wang Haosheng [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Since mid - 2024, CTA has reversed its decline, and the recent upward trend has strengthened, mainly due to improved volatility and liquidity. However, the rise since mid - 2024 has been slightly below expectations because the subsequent interest - rate cut process of major economies has not been smooth [5][7] - In the long - term (annual) perspective, the upward momentum of the commodity market is accumulating, and an overall increase in volatility is also likely. This is driven by cost support and low valuation, policy guidance and improved expectations, and global liquidity easing [5] - It is still a strategic window period to increase CTA allocation in the portfolio. In the long run, CTA's long - term positive return expectation and low correlation (even crisis Alpha attribute) with equity assets make it an excellent tool for optimizing the portfolio's Sharpe ratio [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 CTA's Strategy Environment - **Short - to - medium - term trend tracking**: It is closely related to intraday volatility and liquidity. Its long - term performance depends on the upward shift of the volatility center, and short - term performance depends on the pulsed increase in intraday volatility. Since mid - 2024, with improved liquidity, short - to - medium - term trend strategies have also improved [17][19][20] - **Medium - to - long - term trend tracking**: Its long - term performance depends on the increase in daily volatility, which has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since mid - 2024 but with a less - than - expected increase. Short - term performance is highly correlated with daily trend smoothness, and the strategy has a higher probability of positive returns when the market trend smoothness increases. The strategy has a better experience in rising commodity markets and can be regarded as a volatility - reducing product of the commodity index to some extent [21][24][27] 3.2 Commodity Market Outlook - **Current situation**: Many industrial product prices are at a thin - profit or loss state, and commodity prices are generally at a historically low valuation with strong cost support [32] - **Expectation**: Commodities are unlikely to return to the low levels before the "anti - involution" policy, as the narrative of "weak external demand due to tariffs" and "structural over - supply in the domestic market" has changed. "Anti - involution" aims to reverse the situation of "increasing quantity but decreasing price" and promote price increases [33][35][36] - **Monetary aspect**: Preventive interest - rate cuts support commodity price increases. Commodities have performed well after interest - rate cut cycles, and preventive interest - rate cuts lead to price increases at the beginning [39] - **Fiscal aspect**: China's fiscal policy continues to be proactive, and the US fiscal policy has exceeded expectations. Major economies have entered a fiscal expansion cycle, and historically, fiscal stimulus usually corresponds to rising commodity prices [43][45][49] - **Volatility**: Commodity volatility is highly correlated with the fiscal expenditures and monetary liquidity of major economies [52] 3.3 CTA's Long - term Value - **Long - term positive return**: CTA's long - term positive returns mainly come from behavioral finance biases and the information advantages and resource inputs of managers [55] - **Low correlation**: It has a low correlation with equity assets, and the internal correlation within CTA is also low [58][60] - **Crisis Alpha attribute**: During historical black - swan events, CTA has often outperformed equity assets, making it an anti - fragile asset with high allocation value in a high - uncertainty market environment [61]