以下内容授权转载自公众号：排排网研究院 （点击↑↑ 上图查看回放 ） 2025年，中国私募证券资产管理规模历史性突破七万亿元大关。市场稳步上行与策略创新双轮驱动行业进阶，而市场与行业结构的不断细分、行 业内竞争的日趋激烈、全球大环境的不稳定，再加上AI技术普及带来的行业变革冲击，共同为行业发展提出了全新命题。如何在机遇与挑战并存 的新格局中精准定位、实现持续进化，已成为全行业的核心议题。 值此行业关键节点，由排排网集团主办，银河期货、方正证券、希施玛数科、中辉期货、私募排排网、国联期货协办的第二十届私募基金发展论 坛，于2026年1月8日在深圳星河丽思卡尔顿酒店盛大启幕。本次论坛以"循光而行、星河万里"为主题，汇聚公募、私募、券商等领域的前沿专 家、行业领军者以及专业从业者，围绕AI赋能投资新范式、权益市场投资机遇、CTA策略配置价值等核心议题展开深度交流，共探中国私募基金 行业高质量发展的全新路径。 Fell Fell 嘉宾观点 Guest opin 2025年是私募证券行业的里程碑之 年. 管理规模首破7万亿元,成为私募 行业增长核心引擎。这一年,私募行业 活力进发:百亿私募阵营稳步扩容,赚 钱效应凸显, ...

Asset Performance - The report indicates a strong performance in equities and commodities, with A-shares and precious metals leading the gains[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly increase of 1.88% and a year-to-date increase of 21.49%[12] - The CSI 500 Index experienced a weekly rise of 4.03% and a year-to-date increase of 34.49%[12] Market Expectations - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, significantly above the expected 3.3%[19] - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.00 mark, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[23] - The report anticipates continued strength in risk assets due to expectations of U.S. economic downturn and policy easing[22] Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends a bullish stance on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and telecommunications[28] - It suggests monitoring A-share equity-related index enhancement strategies and commodity-related CTA strategies[54] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential extreme risk events, such as U.S.-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, which could disrupt historical patterns[4] - It also notes the risk of quantitative indicators becoming ineffective, as historical data may not reliably predict future outcomes[4]

从市场环境来看，这一阶段的典型特征在于： 方向不缺，但确定性不足。 在此背景下，单一依赖权益贝塔的策略，胜率与盈亏比均面临 考验，而具备多资产、多方向参与能力的CTA策略，其配置价值随之提升。 可参考： 最新私募CTA收益榜揭晓！洛书、量道、宏锡居前三！ 利量排球网 1-11月CTA收益十强私募 (管理规模:50亿以上) 引言 在经历了前期单边上涨后，进入三季度以来，权益市场逐步转向高波动、弱趋势的震荡格局。以上证指数、沪深300为代表的主要股指， 在区间内反复拉锯，趋势持续性明显下降，投资者的赚钱效应随之减弱。 图1：A股宽基指数下半年以来振幅波动加大 数据来源:私募管理人(经托管复核)/托管人,整理自私募排排网,截至2025年11月 底。仅统计在私募排排网至少有3只期货及衍生品策略产品有今年1-11月业绩展示 且符合排名的私募,按旗下期货及衍生品策略产品今年1-11月收益均值排名。 首发:私募排排网公众号 | 排名 | 公司简称 | 核心策略 | 公司规模 | 实控人 | 符合排名规则的 期货及衍生品 | 规模合计 1-11月收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） CTA策略 即管理期货策略，是以期货合约作为核心投资标的的策略，涵盖股指期货、商品期货及国债期货等。该策略通过多空双向交易获取收益，其表现与价格趋势强弱和市场波 动率大小密切相关。通常，在趋势明确、波动率较高的市场环境中，CTA策略表现突出；在行情盘整、波动收窄的阶段则表现相对平淡。 今年以来，权益市场表现强劲，量化多头与主观多头策略普遍实现30%-40%收益，相较之下CTA策略整体收益似乎略显逊色。另外， 商品市场 年内各品种趋势连贯性较弱，趋势周期较短，加上不同管理人在策略周期与风险控制上的差异，使得今年 CTA产品的业绩呈现明显分化。但这 并非意味着CTA策略可以忽视，从年内表现看仍有不少私募在CTA策略上大放异彩，从资产配置以及商品市场未来表现看，CTA策略也或大有 可为 ： 资产配置上， CTA策略与股票、债券等传统资产类别具有天然的低相关性，是资产配置中分散组合风险、增强组合稳定性的重要工具，也是多 元化投资组合中不可或缺的一环 。 展望未来商品市场， 从趋势层面看 ，在全球流动性整体宽松的背景下，国内需求有望在海外通胀预期传导下进入 ...

百亿量化私募创始人又遭"李鬼"顶替。 近日，21财经《辟谣财知道》注意到，有不法分子再次假冒上海量派投资管理有限公司（以下简称"量 派投资"）创始人、CEO孙林和其他员工身份，并虚构员工信息，诱导投资人下载APP"脉达"，开展非 法荐股等活动，并进一步诱导投资人下载冒用我司名义的非法虚假APP"量派阿尔法"实施诈骗活动。 此前，已有不法分子假冒量派投资创始人及其员工身份，以实施电信诈骗或骗取投资者信息，涉嫌违法 犯罪。 12月15日晚，量派投资严正声明，相关非法行为不仅严重侵害了投资者的合法权益，使投资者面临经济 损失等潜在风险，也严重影响了公司及公司员工的声誉。目前，量派投资已向公安机关报警。 量派投资提醒，公司为中国证券投资基金业协会登记的私募基金管理人，经营范围为私募证券投资基金 管理服务，公司发行产品为私募证券投资基金，所有产品均可以在中国证券投资基金业协会官网查询相 关备案信息。公司及公司员工从未组织或进行过任何培训活动、直播教学等非法活动。任何假冒量派投 资及员工名义以荐股、提供内幕消息等方式向投资者邀请入会、收取费用、承诺收益、盈利分成等行为 均为诈骗行为。 截至目前，量派投资从未开发或发行过任 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing value of quantitative and CTA strategies in a volatile market environment, where traditional investment approaches may struggle to provide direction [2][3][15] Group 2 - Recent market fluctuations are attributed more to style switching rather than "quantitative crowding," indicating a shift in investor preferences from high-volatility growth stocks to stable cash flow and low-volatility investments [5][15] - The performance of various style factors shows that growth and volatility factors have been strong, while large-cap and liquidity factors have weakened, suggesting a broader market de-concentration and a response to macroeconomic variables [5][15] Group 3 - The rising expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan are identified as a significant driver of global market volatility, impacting carry trades and increasing risk premiums in Asian assets [6][15] - Quantitative strategies and CTA strategies are positioned to benefit structurally from these changes, as they can adapt quickly to rising funding costs and currency fluctuations [7][8][15] Group 4 - The article highlights the performance of private equity funds, noting that those with higher Sharpe ratios and lower drawdown characteristics are more suitable for core portfolio allocation during turbulent market conditions [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of quantitative long equity strategies in the private equity sector, highlighting a shift towards more diversified and composite strategies that enhance returns and manage risks more effectively [5][21]. Group 1: Strategy Evolution - Quantitative long equity strategies are transitioning from single stock selection to multi-strategy integration, indicating a broader industry trend [7][5]. - The integration of T0 trading strategies enhances returns by maintaining full stock selection while allowing for short-term trading based on price signals [8][10]. - Position management is evolving with the cautious use of timing strategies, where only a small portion of the portfolio is allocated for timing to ensure higher certainty in returns [12][15]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Approach - The shift from pure quantitative long equity to multi-asset trading models is evident, with managers incorporating convertible bonds and tactical allocations to other assets [21][22]. - Convertible bonds provide both equity-like upside and bond-like downside protection, enhancing overall portfolio resilience [22][23]. - The strategy also includes periodic allocations to gold and government bonds, which offer low correlation returns without increasing overall risk [23]. Group 3: Composite Strategies - The trend towards multi-asset and multi-strategy composite models is becoming common, allowing for the capture of diverse alpha and beta returns [24][25]. - A representative strategy combines quantitative long equity with CTA strategies, leveraging the strengths of both to enhance returns and hedge risks [26][29]. - The composite strategy allows for efficient capital utilization through the inherent leverage of CTA strategies, improving overall portfolio performance [30]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The influx of capital into quantitative long equity since 2018-2019 has led to increased competition, making traditional sources of excess returns harder to achieve [31][34]. - As more participants adopt similar methods, the need for more diverse and sustainable sources of returns becomes paramount for quantitative managers [35].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global economic environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on corporate profitability driving equity markets, while investors should be cautious of risks amid market volatility [1][2]. Macroeconomic Outlook - China's economy is projected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with moderate inflation and a focus on industrial transformation and balancing development with security [1]. - The U.S. economy is anticipated to achieve a "soft landing," with manageable short-term inflation pressures, while the AI technology revolution continues to be a core driver across economic cycles [2]. Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is entering a phase where growth will depend more on actual corporate earnings rather than valuation expansion, following a valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - Investment strategies should focus on four main paths: growth sectors with sustained momentum, globally competitive leading companies, areas with improved supply-demand dynamics, and new opportunities from the industrialization of frontier technologies [2]. Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by a loose funding environment and potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3]. - Credit bonds remain attractive due to stable institutional demand, with a recommended strategy of focusing on medium to short-duration bonds with favorable yields [3]. Alternative Assets - Gold is projected to continue its bull market in 2026, supported by expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. - The commodity market is expected to trend upwards, with significant opportunities in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products due to changing supply dynamics and favorable liquidity conditions [5]. Quantitative Strategies - The environment for excess returns in stock quantitative strategies is expected to be favorable, with a significant portion of private equity funds now allocated to quantitative strategies [5]. - Market-neutral products are anticipated to provide stable alpha returns by effectively isolating systemic risks in a low-interest-rate environment [5].

他分享了两个生动的案例：一是曾经在与某实体企业交流时，对方原本只做套保，但在接触到年化收益 可达30%的CTA策略后，企业主顿悟"收益本身就是最好的风险对冲"。二是在参加的某次活动中，有市 场资深人士认为"部分传统套期保值实为伪命题，合理化掩盖了期货市场的亏损"，这让葛昶深刻意识 到，如果在期货与衍生品方面不能获得收益，其对冲功能也将失效。 因此，瑞达期货坚持一个核心理念，即期货资产管理一端连着投资管理，另一端连着风险管理。无论是 期货还是期权合约，其本质都是风险管理工具。投资管理的终点，终将回归风险管理本身——不仅追求 收益，更深层次的更是对风险的定价与管理。 "第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会"近日在深圳举行。在"中国期货业年会"分论坛 上，瑞达期货（002961）总经理葛昶发表了题为《守正创新，期货主动资产管理的瑞达实践》的主旨演 讲。 在期货行业加速转型、主动管理价值日益凸显的当下，资产管理已成为期货公司能力分化的关键赛道。 葛昶以极具哲学意味的"我是谁、从哪里来、到哪里去"三问开篇，系统复盘了瑞达期货十年来坚定培育 衍生品交易能力的战略抉择，深度剖析了对期货资管的独到见解，期盼行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a decline in the expected return on equity (ROE) for the Wande All A and Wande All A non-financial indices, with forecasts for Q4 2025 at 7.50% and 6.60% respectively, down from previous estimates [2][3][37] - The sentiment indices for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have decreased from historical highs, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [2][3][4] - The A-share market shows a preference for large-cap and value styles, with positive relative returns expected in sectors such as home appliances, electricity and utilities, defense and military, electronics, computers, and insurance [2][4] Group 2 - The global multi-asset allocation strategies have shown negative returns in November, with the low-risk portfolio returning -0.16% and the medium-high risk portfolio returning -1.04% [2][3] - The A-share industry and style rotation index has also experienced a decline, with a November return of -2.94%, although the year-to-date return remains strong at 27.88% [2][3] - The analysis indicates a divergence in valuations among industries, with coal, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electric power equipment and new energy, defense and military, automotive, electronics, and computers showing PB percentiles above 50% [4] Group 3 - The forecast for gold priced in US dollars is expected to strengthen, driven by factors such as declining real interest rates, weak economic conditions, increased market volatility, and geopolitical tensions [3][53] - The analysis of the economic cycles indicates that the US and Japan are entering a downward GDP cycle, while the Eurozone is predicted to peak in Q3 2025 [3][41][44] - The sentiment indicators for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflect a decrease in trading activity, with recent trends showing a decline in new A-share account openings and the establishment of new equity funds [4][68][75]