中国基金报记者吴娟娟 【导读】全球知名CTA管理人Aspect Capital联合创始人兼首席执行官Anthony Todd：中国业务超越预期 全球知名CTA管理人Aspect Capital联合创始人兼首席执行官Anthony Todd日前接受本报独家专访时表示，尽管展业不足一年，但其在中国的私募业务进展 超越预期。他指出，当前宏观不确定性高企，投资者越发需要寻找多元化的收益来源，对CTA的需求持续提升。中国投资者不仅追求有吸引力的绝对收 益，而且希望这一回报与股债市场保持低相关性。 Aspect Capital 旗下宽立资本2024年12月在中国证券投资基金业协会登记为证券私募管理人，公开信息显示，截至目前，其管理规模在10亿—20亿元之 间。 Anthony于1997年9月联合创立Aspect Capital，担任首席执行官。他亦担任Aspect执行董事会主席，决定公司的整体战略方向，同时担任投资委员会主席， 在董事会层面负责风险管理。Anthony曾在Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL）、Mars & Co.和瑞银集团（UBS）工作。他拥有牛津大学物理学学士学 位 ...

恒越嘉鑫债券的基金经理吴胤希于2023年9月份加盟恒越基金，并将CTA策略加入产品管理中，使基金 成为市场上少有的"固收+量化择时"公募产品。具体来看，CTA策略是一种通过量化模型捕捉价格趋 势、进行多空双向交易的资产管理策略，通常运用在期货市场，其方法理念也可用于股票市场。恒越嘉 鑫债券CTA策略核心因子包括动量因子、动量反转因子、波动率因子、成交量因子等，主要捕捉股票价 格的反转信号和波动率变化机会。吴胤希还自编了一系列的内部指数，涵盖高弹性风格的各类热点细分 方向，对每个指数单独嵌套CTA模型。当模型发出买入信号时，基金就买入该自编指数的一篮子个股； 若无信号，则保持空仓。这种灵活调整的方式，配合严格的仓位控制和分散配置，有效平滑了波动。 本报讯(记者昌校宇)近期，A股成长板块持续震荡，投资者在年末更关注如何控制波动、实现稳健收 益。在此背景下，"固收+"基金因其兼顾收益与防守的特性，成为资产配置中的热门选择之一。其中， 恒越基金旗下的"固收+"产品——恒越嘉鑫债券通过引入CTA策略(商品交易顾问策略或管理期货策 略)，在严控回撤的前提下，截至今年三季度末，实现了连续8个季度正收益，以及连续两年年化收益 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - As of November 7, 2025, the top three best - performing strategies in terms of cumulative returns this year are CSI 2000 Index Enhancement (+59.70%), CSI 1000 Index Enhancement (+45.60%), and CSI 500 Index Enhancement (+40.64%); the worst - performing are Option Put - biased (+1.53%), Option Arbitrage - biased (+4.15%), and ETF Arbitrage (+4.16%). The top three in terms of excess performance are CSI 2000 Index Enhancement (+26.10%), CSI 1000 Index Enhancement (+19.31%), and Quantitative Stock Selection (+13.71%); the worst are CSI 300 Index Enhancement (+6.12%), CSI A500 Index Enhancement (+7.06%), and CSI 500 Index Enhancement (+12.94%) [6] - The equity prices of major Sino - US indices have reached the 90% quantile levels of the past five or even ten years, and the on - site trading enthusiasm for Sino - US equity assets still exists. A - share investors are optimistic about the prospects of China's Science and Technology Innovation Board. China maintains a low - interest - rate environment, while the US is in a relatively high - interest - rate environment. The overall core strategy β environment is unfavorable for pure long - only stock strategies but favorable for CTA trend strategies, arbitrage strategies, and hedging strategies [6] - It is recommended to gradually increase the allocation of CTA, with trend strategies as the main focus and cross - sectional and arbitrage strategies as supplements. The overall attitude towards long - only stock strategies is neutral to cautious, while the attitude towards stock hedging strategies (neutral strategies) is neutral to optimistic [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Strategy β Environment Tracking - **Sino - US Equity Assets**: Most Sino - US equity assets have reached the double 90% quantile levels. In terms of structural opportunities, it is recommended to overweight CSI 300, A500, and Hang Seng Tech and underweight CSI 500. The trading enthusiasm in the on - site market remains high, and A - share investors are optimistic about the prospects of China's Science and Technology Innovation Board [8][9][20] - **Sino - US Bond Assets**: China maintains a low - interest - rate environment, while the US is in a high - interest - rate environment. The trading attribute of China's bond market interest rate is stronger than the allocation attribute this year, and the US bond real interest rate remains high and is on a downward trend [21][29] - **Commodity Assets**: Except for precious metals and non - ferrous metals, commodities show obvious low - valuation characteristics. The market's attention to commodity assets remains undiminished [33][37] - **Sino - US Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate has been in an appreciation range this year [39] 3.2 Private Equity Review - **Sub - strategy Monthly Performance Comparison**: As of November 7, 2025, the performance of different sub - strategies varies greatly. For example, in terms of cumulative returns this year, CSI 2000 Index Enhancement performs well, while Option Put - biased performs poorly [45] - **Major Index Monthly Performance Comparison**: As of November 7, 2025, the best - performing indices are the Micro - cap Index (+76.79%), ChiNext Index (+45.50%), and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (+38.99%); the worst - performing are CSI Dividend (+3.74%), CSI 300 (+17.53%), and Shanghai Composite Index (+17.57%) [48] 3.3 CTA Strategy Environment Tracking - **Commodity Futures Market**: Most commodity sector index net values and volatilities have declined. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of commodity futures is 1.95 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.29 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 2.41 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.81, which is at a normal level [50][55] - **Stock Index Futures Market**: Most stock index futures indices have risen, and volatilities have generally declined. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of stock index futures is 0.71 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.05 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 1.34 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.53, which is at a normal level [57][61] - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The net values of treasury bond futures indices have generally declined, and most volatilities have decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of treasury bond futures is 0.32 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.09 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 0.88 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.37, which is at a relatively low level [62][66] - **Short - and Medium - Term Cycle Strategy Market Environment**: Intra - day liquidity remains at a high level, and volatility has slightly declined [68] - **Long - and Medium - Term Cycle Strategy Market Environment**: The smoothness of trends has continued to decline, and volatility has continued to increase [70] 3.4 Stock Strategy Environment Tracking - **Major Broad - based Index Review**: Most broad - based indices have risen this week, and volatilities have generally declined. The short - term market activity is at a medium - to - high level and has increased marginally [74][77] - **Equity Industry Index Review**: This week, 61.3% of industries have achieved positive returns, and the Power Equipment sector leads the way. The top three industries in terms of weekly returns are Power Equipment (4.98%), Coal (4.52%), and Petroleum and Petrochemicals (4.47%); the bottom three are Medicine and Biology (- 2.40%), Computer (- 2.54%), and Beauty Care (- 3.10%) [80] - **Trading Congestion**: As of November 7, 2025, the trading heat of the TMT sector is 0.29 (a marginal decrease of 10.1%), in the lower range; the trading heat of sectors such as micro - caps is 0.12 (a marginal increase of 3.2%), in the normal range; the total market trading volume is 1.96 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 2.8%), in the extremely high range [84] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Intra - day Alpha Environment Monitoring**: It is generally unfavorable for intra - day Alpha accumulation due to the net outflow of funds from the stock market this week [85][88] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Trading - type Alpha Environment Monitoring**: It is generally favorable for trading - type Alpha accumulation as trading volume, margin trading balance, etc. are at relatively high levels [90][95] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Holding - type Alpha Significance Environment Monitoring**: It is slightly unfavorable for Alpha accumulation as the stock style is the large - cap style and the proportion of stocks outperforming the market index is still relatively low [96][101] - **Stock Index Futures Market Review**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM has widened. The estimated impacts on the average returns of neutral products through different contract hedging methods vary [102][108] - **Option Market Review**: The implied volatility has generally declined this week, which is expected to be unfavorable for option buying and arbitrage strategies. The option sentiment dimension shows that the sentiment towards CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 is generally bearish [110][114] - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Component Stock Decomposition**: The exposure to micro - caps has dropped to a safe level, and the quantitative selection shows a relatively high exposure to micro - caps [115]

【导读】"很多同行消失了！"单一策略遇冷，私募转型多策略 "原来跟我们一批做CTA的，很多都已经消失了。"一位以CTA策略起家的私募负责人感慨道。据他透 露，国内一家规模曾超百亿元的CTA策略私募，如今规模已萎缩至不足5亿元，已搬到隔壁办公楼，而 更多同期成立的机构早已没了声音。 不仅是CTA私募，还有债券、主观多头等管理人，也以不同方式布局多资产领域，发行多策略产品。其 背后的逻辑是，单一策略收益率下行，或容量有限，抗风险能力不足，通过多资产、多策略布局，可以 实现风险的分散与收益来源的多元化。 记者了解到，私募转型多策略并非易事，需要重塑一套投研框架，对投资团队、交易系统与风控标准提 出更高要求。私募看好多策略的崛起，逐步从小众走向主流。最新备案数据也印证了这一转向，今年10 月，多资产策略私募产品备案数量达到122只，占比升至12.27%，仅次于股票策略。 CTA策略曾是私募行业的"明星赛道"，但单一策略的局限性如今愈发凸显。 "光做CTA还是不够丰富，天花板太低了。"前述私募负责人表示，核心原因在于期货市场容量有限，远 不及股票市场的体量。这几年，不少CTA私募规模缩水明显，反观股票类私募，今年诞生了 ...

Core Insights - The value of FOF (Fund of Funds) allocation strategies is being reinforced in the current market environment, with a rapid increase in its share among high-net-worth clients' asset allocations [1][2] - The FOF strategy is expected to become a mainstream asset allocation tool in the domestic market, driven by a large fund product market, long-term capital inflows, and improved investor awareness [2][3] FOF Development Potential - The demand for wealth management is shifting from "single appreciation" to "stable diversification," making FOF strategies increasingly attractive due to their multi-asset and multi-strategy advantages [1][2] - The domestic market has a rich base asset pool, with non-monetary public fund scale exceeding 22 trillion yuan and private fund scale exceeding 12 trillion yuan [2] Multi-Dimensional Allocation Framework - FOF strategies require investors to set target volatility based on their risk tolerance, forming a three-layer framework of "macro direction, mid-level strategy selection, and micro fund selection" [3] - The FOF strategy allows for diversified asset allocation and strategy dispersion, mitigating extreme risks from single assets while capturing multi-dimensional returns [2][3] Risk Control Mechanism - The core of FOF risk control lies in "double dispersion," which provides a more robust safeguard compared to traditional funds that only diversify single asset risks [4][5] - The first layer of dispersion involves diversifying underlying fund assets, while the second layer focuses on diversifying strategies and managers to avoid "same-source risk" [5] Future Outlook - The potential for FOF products in the domestic market is significant, with expectations for the introduction of quantitative and hedging strategies to enhance risk-return profiles and product attractiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in the commodity market and the performance of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies, highlighting the challenges and opportunities presented by recent market dynamics [4][8]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is undergoing significant structural changes, with extreme differentiation in performance among various sectors [4][6]. - The South China Gold Index surged by 18.21%, while the energy index fell by 14.57%, and the black sector dropped by 13.18%, indicating a divergence of over 30 percentage points between sectors [6]. - The volatility in commodities has shown a "pulse-like" characteristic, with a 200% spike in 20-day volatility due to tariff impacts, followed by a rapid decline to historical low levels [7]. Group 2: CTA Strategy Performance - Overall performance of CTA strategies has been lackluster this year, particularly before April, where they ranked at the bottom among various strategies [8][11]. - Following increased volatility in commodities, CTA strategies began to recover, climbing to the third position among strategies by July, although still lagging behind quantitative and subjective strategies [11]. - Recent improvements in the CTA environment have been noted, with strong performance observed in October amidst poor performance from other strategies [11]. Group 3: Macro and Multi-Asset Strategies - CTA strategies have evolved to incorporate macroeconomic data, allowing for a more comprehensive approach to market fluctuations [14]. - The macro strategy integrates five sub-strategies, including economic cycle strategies and risk warnings, to manage assets across different time horizons [14][15]. - A multi-asset strategy has been developed that diversifies across various asset classes, focusing on achieving higher Sharpe ratios through a combination of trend-following, term arbitrage, and cross-sectional strategies [20][22]. Group 4: Risk Management and Performance - The risk management framework for these strategies includes maintaining a margin usage of 10%-15% and controlling overall volatility to remain within 8% [18][17]. - The performance of the multi-asset strategy has shown positive contributions from all asset classes, with a distribution of 60% in equity indices, 30% in commodities, and 10% in government bonds [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The commodity market as a whole moved upward this week, with the commodity index rising 0.43%. By sector, the precious metals index rose 4.48%, the non-ferrous metals index rose 0.73%, the energy and chemical index fell 0.06%, the industrial products index fell 0.10%, the agricultural products index fell 1.23%, and the black index fell 1.95%. By variety, the crude oil index rose 0.89% and the gold index rose 3.07% [2][6]. - All CTA strategies posted small profits this week. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, with 73% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36%, with 68% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA quantitative arbitrage strategy index rose 0.09%, with 58% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term time - series price - volume strategy index rose 0.09%, while the China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term time - series price - volume strategy index fell 0.24% [2]. - It is recommended to gradually increase CTA allocation, mainly focusing on trend strategies. Currently, the profits of most commodities are at relatively low levels in reality. In terms of expectations, the price level has basically bottomed out, and policy support and demand recovery will continue to boost inflation. Globally, fiscal and monetary policies are gradually entering a synchronous expansion cycle. Therefore, the long - term trend of the commodity market is gradually taking shape, volatility is expected to gradually increase, and the profit expectation of CTA is gradually strengthening [2]. - The short - to medium - term strategy environment is moderately favorable. Intraday liquidity has continued to recover, with a historical quantile of around 0.7; intraday volatility has remained high, with a historical quantile of around 0.9; and trend smoothness has slightly improved, with a historical quantile of around 0.7. The medium - to long - term strategy environment is neutral. The inter - day trend smoothness has continued to recover, with the variety trend smoothness around 0.8 and the proportion of varieties with smooth trends around 0.7; the inter - day volatility has slightly recovered from the bottom, with the variety volatility around 0.0 and the proportion of high - volatility varieties around 0.2 [2]. - Most mainstream style factors posted losses this week. The contribution at the sector level was dispersed, with precious metals contributing positive returns and energy and chemicals mostly contributing negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was also dispersed, with no concentration of returns in specific varieties. The volatility of most mainstream factors declined, but most historical quantiles were in the range of 0.1 - 0.9 [2]. Summary by Catalog 01 Market行情回顾 - **Index performance**: The commodity market mostly rose, with the commodity index up 0.43%. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals indices increased, while the energy and chemical, industrial products, agricultural products, and black indices decreased. Among stock index futures, the IC, IF, and IH indices rose, and the IM index fell. Treasury bond indices generally declined. For CTA style factors, the 20 - day time - series momentum and long - short 50% roll - over factors performed best, while the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum and 5 - day time - series momentum factors performed worst [6]. - **Commodity market**: The net value of most commodity sector indices declined, and most volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest of the commodity futures market were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of commodity futures was 1.97 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.11 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 2.39 trillion yuan, and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, at the 37.54% level of the past three years [8][12]. - **Stock index futures market**: Most stock index futures indices rose, and half of the volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest were in a relatively high range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of stock index futures was 0.82 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 1.33 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.61, at the 82.09% level of the past three years [16][20]. - **Treasury bond futures market**: The net value of treasury bond futures indices generally declined, and most volatilities decreased. The trading volume and open interest were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of treasury bond futures was 0.43 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 0.77 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.01 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.56, at the 67.70% level of the past three years [23][27]. - **CTA strategy tracking**: More than 50% of quantitative CTA strategies had positive returns this week. All types of CTA strategies posted small profits. For example, the China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, and the medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36% [28][38]. 02 Strategy Market Environment - **Short - to medium - term strategy environment**: Intraday liquidity continued to recover, and volatility remained high. The historical quantile of intraday liquidity was around 0.7, and that of intraday volatility was around 0.9 [2]. - **Medium - to long - term strategy environment**: The trend smoothness continued to recover, and the volatility recovered from the bottom. The variety trend smoothness was around 0.8, the proportion of varieties with smooth trends was around 0.7, the variety volatility was around 0.0, and the proportion of high - volatility varieties was around 0.2 [2]. 03 CTA Style Factors - **Factor returns**: Most mainstream factors posted losses. For example, the 5 - day time - series momentum factor fell 0.59%, and the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum factor fell 0.40% [54]. - **Return contribution**: At the sector level, precious metals contributed positive returns, and energy and chemicals mostly contributed negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was dispersed. For example, for the 5 - day time - series momentum factor, silver, polycrystalline silicon, and coking coal were among the top contributors, while glass, container shipping index, and crude oil were among the bottom contributors [55][57]. - **Factor correlation**: The correlation matrix shows the relationships between different factors. For example, the correlation between the 5 - day time - series momentum and 5 - day cross - sectional momentum factors was 0.851 [71]. 04 CTA Risk Monitoring - **Risk factor exposure**: CTA time - series price - volume had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, CTA cross - sectional long - short also had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, and CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional had a small exposure to style factors [74]. - **Return decomposition**: For the CTA time - series price - volume strategy, the total return since the beginning of the year was 7.26%, with a purified alpha return of 7.17% and a style factor beta return of 0.09%. For the CTA cross - sectional long - short strategy, the total return was 1.43%, with a purified alpha return of - 1.71% and a style factor beta return of 3.14%. For the CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional strategy, the total return was 5.54%, with a purified alpha return of 3.18% and a style factor beta return of 2.36% [75].

期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 商品趋势渐起预期下的CTA配置机会 ·研究员-赵嘉瑜 ·13686866941 ·zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn ·Z0016776 ·研究员-乔垒 ·15805605265 ·qiaolei1@cmschina.com.cn ·Z0021548 ·研究员- 王昊昇 ·18674061227 ·wanghaosheng@cmschina.com.cn · Z0022940 2025年9月26日 · 核心观点 24年中开始，CTA扭转颓势，近期上涨趋势得到加强，主要来自于波动和流动性的好转（20240611招期 金工专题报告：CTA策略整装再出发；我们认为开启降息就是波动率提升以及CTA增配的时机）。但整体 来说，CTA从24年中以来的上涨略不及预期，主要因为主要经济体在去年开启降息后，后续降息进程并不 十分顺利。 展望未来，长周期（年度）视角，大宗商品市场的趋势性上涨动能正在积聚，波动率的整体提升也是大概 率事件。这一判断基于以下三重驱动因素： 1）成本支撑与低估值：从现实基本面看，商品价格普遍处于历史估值低位，成本支撑坚实，下方空间有 限。 2）政策引导与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a metaphorical exploration of various investment strategies in the private equity space, likening them to legendary weapons, each with unique strengths and weaknesses, suitable for different market conditions and investor preferences [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The first strategy, "Qinglong Yanyue Dao" (Subjective Long), relies heavily on the fund manager's ability to select stocks and time the market, performing well in bullish markets with clear themes [9][10][15]. - The second strategy, "Xuedizi" (Quantitative Long), utilizes complex algorithms to identify stocks based on specific metrics, excelling in active markets with high trading volumes [18][20][23]. - The third strategy, "Zhuge Lian" (Macro Hedging), involves top-down asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities, generally effective in diverse market conditions but can fail during extreme events [26][30][31]. - The fourth strategy, "Fang Tian Hua Ji" (CTA Strategy), focuses on futures markets, capturing trends regardless of price direction, suitable for markets with significant price movements [33][35][39]. - The fifth strategy, "Taiji Shuang Jian" (Market Neutral), aims to generate absolute returns by hedging market risks, effective in bear and volatile markets but may underperform in bull markets [41][45][48]. - The sixth strategy, "Ruan Wei Jia" (Fixed Income +), combines high-quality bonds with a small allocation to riskier assets, providing stability but vulnerable to rising interest rates [50][53][56]. - The seventh strategy, "Xiu Hua Zhen" (Arbitrage), exploits price discrepancies across markets, generating small but cumulative profits, effective in volatile conditions but reliant on market efficiency [58][61][63]. Group 2: Strategy Suitability - Each strategy is designed for specific market conditions, with subjective long strategies thriving in bullish environments, while quantitative strategies excel in active trading scenarios [15][23]. - Macro hedging strategies are versatile but can falter during extreme market events, while CTA strategies benefit from significant price trends [31][39]. - Market neutral strategies provide a buffer against market downturns, whereas fixed income plus strategies are contingent on interest rate movements [48][56]. - Arbitrage strategies are most effective in volatile markets but depend on the quick correction of price discrepancies [63]. Group 3: Conclusion - The article concludes by encouraging investors to choose strategies that align with their risk preferences, highlighting the importance of understanding each strategy's unique attributes and market applicability [67][69].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has entered a phase of consolidation since mid-August, showing signs of a peak correction, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, which had previously driven market gains [1] - As of September 3, the S&P 500 index remains near historical highs with a year-to-date increase of 9.88%, while the Nasdaq index, heavily weighted in tech stocks, has risen over 11.5% this year [1] - Analysts warn that despite strong earnings from tech stocks and higher-than-expected capital expenditures from tech giants, multiple indicators suggest a lack of supportive cash flow for the market in September, alongside risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the market enters a downward trend in the coming week, CTA models could sell $22.25 billion in global equities, including $4.84 billion in U.S. stocks; if the market declines significantly over the next month, forced sales could reach $217.92 billion globally, with $73.69 billion in U.S. stocks [2] - The correlation between CTA positions and market momentum is significant, as CTA funds follow systematic trading strategies that tend to amplify market trends [2] - Historical data shows that September typically sees increased market volatility and weaker stock performance, which may trigger concentrated liquidation by CTA strategies [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts remains a key risk for the U.S. stock market, despite the market pricing in a potential rate cut in September [2][3] - The Fed's recent economic survey indicates price increases related to tariff policies, with many American households experiencing wage growth that fails to keep pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [2] - Analysts highlight that the U.S. is facing a "stagflation" scenario, with weakening economic indicators across various sectors, and inflationary pressures that may complicate the Fed's decision to resume rate cuts [3]