编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 鲍瑞海的配置思路是"同一逻辑，双重表达"，如铜价上涨，既利好有色板块上市公司的利润，也能直接 通过铜期货获利。"根据相关性，投资者可以同时管理一个板块的风险，从而实现合理配置。"他说。 低相关性构建"免费午餐" 诺贝尔经济学奖得主哈里·马科维茨曾将分散化称为投资中唯一的"免费午餐"。本期三位私募受访者的 观点，都离不开这一理念。 鲍瑞海从实战角度提出了三层应对框架：成长赛道方面，沿着"企业爬科技树"方向，挖掘尚未充分演绎 的机会，用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing continued selling pressure despite a strong rebound, with Goldman Sachs indicating that trend-following funds may continue to sell this week, leading to increased volatility and potential market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Trend Following and Selling Pressure - The S&P 500 index has triggered short-term thresholds for trend-following strategies (CTA), leading to expected net selling in the upcoming week regardless of market direction [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the market weakens, approximately $33 billion in selling could be triggered, while an upward movement could still result in about $8.7 billion in selling [1][2][5]. - The "threshold effect" indicates that if the S&P 500 falls below 6707 points, it could trigger an additional $80 billion in systematic selling over the next month, amplifying downward pressure on the market [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Volatility - The liquidity in the S&P 500 has significantly decreased, with the top-of-book liquidity dropping from an average of approximately $13.7 million to about $4.1 million [3]. - The shift in options market positions from positive gamma to negative gamma is expected to exacerbate intraday volatility, as traders may need to buy on the way up and sell on the way down to hedge their positions [3]. Group 3: Other Systematic Strategies - Other systematic strategies, such as risk parity and volatility control, still have significant room to reduce positions, with current allocations at the 81st and 71st percentiles, respectively [4]. - These strategies are more dependent on sustained changes in realized volatility, which could lead to increased selling pressure if volatility remains high [4]. Group 4: Seasonal Factors and Retail Investor Behavior - Seasonal trends suggest limited support for the market, as February is historically a weaker month for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 due to the decline in supportive fund flows from January [6]. - Retail investor activity has shown signs of cooling, with a recent net selling of approximately $690 million, indicating a decreased willingness to buy on dips compared to previous trends [6]. Group 5: Market Reactions and External Influences - The recent volatility in the market is partly attributed to the launch of new AI automation tools by Anthropic PBC, which has led investors to reassess disruption risks, affecting the valuations of software, financial services, and asset management stocks [7]. - Goldman Sachs notes that client inquiries have focused on systematic strategies and fund flows, reflecting a market environment where short-term price movements are more influenced by trading flows than by fundamentals [7].

回归CTA主赛道 2007年成立的老牌私募双隆投资，经历过衍生品市场的多次变迁，也曾在多元扩张中经历考验。 2010年，股指期货上市成为双隆投资的关键转折点，公司将策略重心转向了股指期货，包括期现套利、 量化选股对冲和股指CTA，一开始发展较为顺利。张津鹏回忆，至2015年，公司管理规模一度达到约50 亿元。然而，2016年股指期货交易受限。彼时，双隆投资正雄心勃勃地扩张，组建了股票、商品、期权 三个团队，意图多线并进。但事与愿违，尤其是股票策略的业绩始终未能达到预期。 "到了2020年初，我们做了'断舍离'，彻底放弃了股票策略，重新聚焦到我们最擅长的主赛道CTA 上。"这次"壮士断腕"式的战略收缩，是双隆投资发展史上的另一个关键时点。这并非盲目撤退，而是 基于深刻的投研反思与对投资者负责的态度。 成立于2007年，双隆投资的故事始于商品期货的跨期套利与趋势跟踪。从早期拥抱股指期货的浪潮，在 多线扩张中冷静反思，到后来回归并聚焦于CTA主赛道，双隆投资的关键选择背后，蕴含着"断舍离"的 哲学。 近日，双隆投资总经理张津鹏在接受中国证券报记者采访时介绍，如今双隆投资已形成覆盖全品种、全 周期的CTA策略矩阵，在 ...

Core Insights - The core philosophy of Shuanglong Investment emphasizes a "cutting off and letting go" approach, focusing on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies as a stabilizer in asset allocation due to their low correlation with equity and bond assets, especially during crises [1][2] Company Development - Established in 2007, Shuanglong Investment initially focused on cross-period arbitrage and trend-following in commodity futures, later shifting its strategy to include stock index futures after their launch in 2010, achieving a management scale of approximately 5 billion yuan by 2015 [2] - In 2016, due to restrictions on stock index futures trading, the company faced challenges and decided to abandon its stock strategy in 2020, refocusing on its core CTA strategies, marking a significant strategic pivot [2][3] Strategy Framework - Shuanglong Investment has developed a comprehensive CTA strategy matrix that covers various asset classes, including commodities, stock indices, and options, with a focus on multiple strategy factors such as price-volume, term structure, and fundamentals [3] - The strategy framework includes both short-term and long-term positions, primarily emphasizing medium to long-term strategies while also incorporating shorter-term strategies for balance and hedging [3] Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the company is optimistic about the CTA strategies, noting increased volatility across commodity markets and sustained capital inflows, which may signal positive trends for related commodity indices [3][4] Compliance and Risk Management - The company prioritizes compliance and risk management as essential to its operations, viewing them as the lifeline of private equity, and emphasizes the importance of controlling risks to ensure long-term sustainability in the financial market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategy is poised for significant opportunities in 2026, driven by a combination of favorable market conditions and the need for diversification in investment portfolios [2][6]. Group 1: 2025 Performance of CTA Strategies - In 2025, the futures and derivatives strategy index rose by approximately 13.86%, with the median return across all products reaching 12.51% and a maximum drawdown median of only -6.33%, highlighting the necessity of allocation to these strategies [2]. - The performance of subjective and quantitative CTA products was impressive, with profitability ratios of 88.2% and 90.4%, and median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65%, respectively [3]. - The long-cycle trend CTA strategy benefited from the prolonged rise in precious metals, establishing itself as a leader in the full-spectrum trend CTA category [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - The article forecasts that 2026 will be a year of opportunities for CTA strategies, as the global economy transitions from "weak recovery" to "early reflation," characterized by a "cooling energy market and rising metals" [6]. - Key bullish areas include gold, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [7]. - Conversely, bearish areas include crude oil, with a projected oversupply of 4 million barrels per day, leading to a forecasted Brent crude price drop to $57 per barrel [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Logic and Market Conditions - The article notes that the "clear long and short" market structure aligns with CTA trading logic, where quantitative CTAs capture emerging trends and subjective CTAs leverage fundamental research for wave opportunities [8]. - The ongoing global low-interest-rate environment and the "yield drought" backdrop create fertile ground for trend-following and cross-sectional arbitrage strategies, enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of CTA strategies [12]. - The CTA strategy is positioned as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, capable of navigating through cycles and capturing both long and short opportunities, especially in a market characterized by structural adjustments and geopolitical risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in global asset pricing logic from focusing on growth and policy to being influenced by conflicts and uncertainties, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and their impact on investment strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - Over the past decade, global asset pricing has primarily revolved around central bank policies, inflation trajectories, and economic growth, but this framework is changing due to prolonged geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risk Report identifies "geoeconomic confrontation" and "interstate conflict" as major long-term risks, indicating a heightened focus on tail risks among global investors [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Risks - The changing landscape leads to three main impacts: asset prices becoming more sensitive to sudden events, increased risk premiums for safe and physical assets, and a decline in the effectiveness of relying solely on economic recovery and profit growth for asset allocation [6]. - The surge in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce and silver prices above $100 per ounce reflects the dominance of "conflict premium and safe-haven demand" in pricing, indicating a need for strategies that address both trends and uncertainties [6]. Group 3: China's Asset Advantages - China's assets are gaining recognition for their policy independence, which is particularly valuable in a high-uncertainty environment, as the country maintains a focus on stable growth and liquidity [9]. - This policy orientation suggests that Chinese assets are less exposed to external geopolitical conflicts, making them more attractive for long-term investors seeking stability and potential growth [9]. Group 4: Investment Reallocation - With the expiration of high-interest deposits and a low-interest environment, long-term funds are seeking new allocation directions, with potential flows into wealth management, insurance, public funds, and A-shares [10]. - The annualized return of the CSI 300 index at approximately 7.62% highlights the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to other investment options, such as real estate and government bonds [10]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares are positioned as a core holding in investment portfolios due to their lower direct exposure to external conflicts and the potential for policy support [12]. - Satellite positions in portfolios should focus on commodities and macro strategies to enhance flexibility and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties [12].

Market Overview - The market in early 2026 has shown strong performance across major asset classes, with the A-share market continuing its robust trend from the previous year, reaching new highs and maintaining high trading sentiment [1][5] - Commodity prices, particularly gold and silver, have surged, prompting institutions to raise their price forecasts, with many investors now focusing on investment opportunities in the commodity market [1][5] CTA Strategy Performance - In 2025, the profitability ratios for subjective CTA and quantitative CTA products were notably high at 88.2% and 90.4%, respectively, with median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65%, and maximum drawdowns of -7.84% and -6.27% [1][6] - CTA remains a crucial component of asset allocation for high-net-worth investors [6] Market Environment and Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to global liquidity easing, while geopolitical risks in regions like Venezuela and Greenland may contribute to a volatile upward trend in global commodity prices [3][8] - Domestic policies aimed at reducing competition are expected to improve the internal supply-demand structure, potentially leading to a positive trend in PPI data and increased price elasticity for industrial products [3][8] - Commodities exhibit low correlation with equities and bonds, with a correlation of approximately 0.6 with equities and less than 0.2 with bonds, highlighting the importance of diversified asset allocation to mitigate risks [3][8] CTA Strategy Selection for Investors - Investors are advised to consider medium to long-term trend CTA strategies, as well as multi-strategy approaches that include cross-sectional long-short arbitrage and various time horizons [4][9] - The introduction of CTA combined with quantitative equity strategies can enhance capital efficiency, allowing investors to benefit from multiple asset sources with a single investment [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 will be a year of opportunities for CTA strategies, driven by a transition in the global economy and distinct trends in the commodity market, which will provide ample trading opportunities [6][12]. Group 1: Performance of CTA Strategies in 2025 - In 2025, the performance of subjective and quantitative CTA products was notable, with profitability ratios reaching 88.2% and 90.4%, respectively, and median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65% [3]. - The maximum drawdown for these strategies was relatively low, with median values of -7.84% and -6.27%, indicating strong risk management [3]. - The commodity market demonstrated significant configuration value, particularly in precious and non-ferrous metals, which became key amplifiers for returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - The commodity market in 2026 is characterized by a "supply-demand mismatch," presenting clear long and short opportunities [7]. - Bullish sectors include gold, with forecasts predicting prices could rise to $4,900 to $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, and copper, which may see average prices exceed $11,500 per ton due to supply disruptions [7]. - Conversely, bearish sectors include crude oil, with predictions of Brent crude prices dropping to around $57 per barrel due to oversupply, and iron ore, expected to decline to $95 per ton due to weak real estate demand [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Logic and Market Conditions - The clear long and short market dynamics align with CTA trading logic, where quantitative CTAs capture emerging trends and subjective CTAs leverage fundamental research for wave opportunities [8]. - The ongoing low-interest-rate environment and the "yield drought" backdrop enhance the appeal of CTA strategies, which can effectively diversify risk and improve risk-adjusted returns [12]. - In the long term, CTA strategies are positioned as a stabilizing asset class capable of navigating through cycles and capturing both bullish and bearish opportunities, reinforcing their role as a "ballast" in investment portfolios [12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that multi-strategy approaches, particularly A-share equity strategies and CTA strategies, are currently favored. Equity assets have returned to a state of fluctuation, with enhanced index strategies showing signs of recovery, and there are still opportunities for allocation in A-share equity strategies. In the context of ongoing trends in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, CTA strategies continue to play a role in enhancing returns and reducing volatility in asset allocation [7][55]. - The performance of bank wealth management products has been positive overall, but there has not been a corresponding expansion in scale. Products in the commodity and derivative categories, as well as equity-related wealth management products, have led the gains. However, aside from a slight net increase in mixed wealth management products, the remaining categories have generally seen a decline in their existing scale [32][55]. Group 2 - In the recent week, the performance of multi-strategy approaches showed that small-cap index enhancement and CTA strategies led the gains, with the median return of public neutral strategies turning positive. Large-cap index enhancement strategies, however, showed weaker returns [10]. - The report highlights that the public neutral strategy products have seen an overall recovery in returns, with the highest, lowest, and median returns for public neutral strategy products being 2.39%, -1.05%, and 0.18% respectively. Private neutral strategy products had returns of 3.38%, -5.26%, and -0.43% respectively [26][27]. - The private CTA strategy remains strong, with the highest, lowest, and median returns for private CTA strategy products being 6.09%, -1.94%, and 0.35% respectively, indicating robust performance in the context of ongoing trends in precious metals and increased volatility in commodities [29][31].

Core Insights - The 19th HED China Summit held in Shenzhen focused on reshaping investment logic in China and wealth management paradigms, covering hedge funds, ETFs, and financial derivatives [2] - Key discussions included asset allocation strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, global investment opportunities, and the evolution of quantitative strategies [2] Group 1: Macro Trends and Industry Insights - The asset management industry is experiencing three core trends: a shift from single strategies to systemic competition, the rise of ecological cooperation, and the global expansion of Chinese private equity funds [5] - In 2026, insurance asset allocation is expected to show a slight decrease in bond proportions, a rapid increase in equity investments, and a slowdown in alternative investments, with a notable improvement in returns [7][8] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that the GDP growth rate needs to maintain around 3.5% to meet the 2035 target of $20,000 per capita GDP, with a focus on structural breakthroughs in new productive forces [9] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The North Exchange has become a primary platform for innovative SMEs, with 78% of its listings classified as "specialized, refined, and new," indicating a solid foundation for long-term market growth [21] - Investment strategies for 2026 include a dual approach: a defensive strategy focusing on quality new stocks and a growth strategy targeting high-growth sectors [22][23] - The rise of AI is expected to significantly impact inflation, labor markets, and asset prices, with the U.S. and China leading in AI development [14] Group 3: Quantitative Investment and Technological Integration - The quantitative investment sector is entering a "Cambrian explosion" phase, emphasizing diversity over uniformity, with a need for unique value propositions to stand out in a crowded market [17][18] - The implementation of stricter regulations is pushing quantitative strategies to evolve from high-frequency to mid-frequency approaches, with AI and deep learning becoming key drivers [32] - Cloud services are enhancing the efficiency of quantitative research and trading by enabling rapid deployment across global markets, thus reducing costs and improving operational capabilities [35] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Directions - The establishment of the Investment Committee at the Capital Market Research Institute aims to create a high-value ecosystem linking domestic and international investors with listed companies [11] - The summit provided a platform for discussions on the challenges and strategies for Chinese institutions expanding overseas, emphasizing the need for adaptation to local regulations and building trust with foreign investors [38] - The closing discussions highlighted the structural changes in quantitative strategies due to regulatory pressures and technological advancements, stressing the importance of differentiated strategies and robust risk management [41]