September 3, 2025 09:50 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation China Economics: Narrative Shift vs. Reality Check Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Slower Growth in 2H, Persistent Deflation Real GDP growth to reach 4.8% in 2025, with slowdown expected in 2H Gradually improving, but continued deflation -4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 ...

July 31, 2025 04:23 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific July PMI Affirms Softening Growth Key Takeaways July PMI echoes rising growth pressure: July mfg. PMI pointed to weaker demand, with softer new orders (down 0.8ppt to 49.4) and new export orders (down 0.6ppt to 47.1). Meanwhile, production softened (down 0.5ppt to 50.5) on weaker demand and upstream production controls linked to anti-involution. Non-manufacturing activities also weakened, led by construction (down 2.2ppt notably) partly due to advers ...

V i e w p o i n t | 02 Jul 2025 06:16:49 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Steady Growth into the Summer – June/Q2 Data Preview CITI'S TAKE We maintain our growth forecast at a steady 5.2%YoY for 25Q2E, though June's monthly indicators could be more mixed. Given the strong outturn in 25H1, we see firm policy determination to meet the GDP target this year despite little urgency to strike the policy put soon. Our policy expectations on the upcoming Politburo meeting are thus realistically muted (see: 25H2 Outlook: ...

China Weekly: May Mixed Growth, Softer Fiscal Condition; June Weaker Home Sales High frequency: weaker home sales in June, softer port activities 30-city property sales declined further to -9% YoY in the first 21 days of June from - 3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -4% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 12% YoY and tier 3 cities declined by -6% YoY. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both softened to -1% YoY and 2% YoY in the first 15 days (vs 4% YoY and 7% YoY in May). ...