[Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】MINIMAX- WP（00100.HK） Born-Global 的稀缺全模态大模型公司 核心观点：（除特殊说明，本报告货币单位为美元，参考汇率 1 美元=7.81 港元） | [Table_Page] | 公司深度研究 软件与服务 | | --- | --- | | | 证券研究报告 | | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 515.00 港元 | | 合理价值 | 572.68 港元 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-10 | 基本[Table_Base 数据 Info] | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 313.6/232.5 | | --- | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） 1615/1198 | | 一年内最高/最低（港元） 581/345 | | 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） 1.95/864 | | 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） 49.28/49.28 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘雪峰 SAC 执证号： ...

[Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】MINIMAX- WP（00100.HK） Born-Global 的稀缺全模态大模型公司 核心观点：（除特殊说明，本报告货币单位为美元，参考汇率 1 美元=7.81 港元） | | 证券研究报告 | | --- | --- | | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 增持 | | 当前价格 | 515.00 港元 | | --- | --- | | 合理价值 | 572.68 港元 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-10 | 基本[Table_Base 数据 Info] | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 313.6/232.5 | | --- | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） 1615/1198 | | 一年内最高/最低（港元） 581/345 | | 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） 1.95/864 | | 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） 49.28/49.28 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘雪峰 SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 SFC CE No. BNX004 ...

12月份贷款与垫款总额上升1.3%，总结2025年全年上升2.3%。其中在香港使用的贷款(包括贸易融资)及 香港境外使用的贷款在12月份分别上升1.2%及1.8%。由于港元存款的升幅较港元贷款的升幅大，港元 贷存比率由11月底的73.2%，下跌至12月底的72.9%。 在香港使用的贷款(包括贸易融资)继上季下跌0.4%后，在2025年第四季按季上升0.2%。按经济用途分 析，住宅按揭贷款上升，而对建造业、物业发展与投资的贷款则下跌。 由于按月货币统计数字或会受到各种短期因素(例如季节性的资金需求，以及营商与投资相关活动)影响 而出现波动，因此应小心诠释统计数字。 智通财经APP获悉，香港金融管理局今日(1月30日)发表的统计数字显示，2025年12月份港元货币供应量 M2及M3均上升0.4%，与去年同期比较均上升4.2%。12月份经季节因素调整的港元货币供应量M1下跌 2.0%，与去年同期比较则上升11.7%，部分反映投资相关活动。货币供应量总额M2及M3于12月份均上 升1.2%，与去年同期比较，M2及M3均上升11.6%。 认可机构的存款总额在2025年12月份上升1.2%，其中港元存款及外币存款分别上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - MiniMax, a company focused on general artificial intelligence (AGI), successfully went public in Hong Kong, becoming the second AGI-based model company to do so globally and achieving a market valuation of 105.379 billion HKD [1] Company Overview - MiniMax was established in December 2021 and is recognized as one of the "Six Little Tigers" of China's large model sector, alongside other notable companies [3] - The company has completed seven rounds of financing, attracting investments from major firms such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Sequoia Capital, with a valuation reaching 4.24 billion USD (approximately 2.96 billion RMB) [3] Market Position - According to a report, MiniMax ranks tenth in the global model market with a market share of 0.3% [3][4] - The company is one of the few in the world to excel in text, video, audio, and music modalities, utilizing advanced architectures like Mixture of Experts (MoE) [7] Product Offerings - MiniMax has launched several consumer-oriented products, including MiniMax Agent, Hailuo AI, MiniMax Audio, and Talkie/Xingye, with significant user engagement [9] - Hailuo AI has helped create over 590 million videos, while Talkie/Xingye has reached 147 million users, with 11 million monthly active users from overseas [9] Financial Performance - MiniMax began generating revenue in 2023, with earnings of 3.46 million USD, which surged by 782% to 30.52 million USD in 2024, and reached 53.44 million USD in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 174.68% [11] - The company’s revenue is primarily driven by AI-native products, which account for over 70% of total revenue, with a significant portion coming from subscription services [12] Losses and Investments - Despite revenue growth, MiniMax has not yet reached a profitability inflection point, with cumulative net losses amounting to 1.32 billion USD (approximately 9.22 billion RMB) from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 [12] - The company has invested approximately 450 million USD (about 3.14 billion RMB) in research and development as of September 2025 [12] Competitive Landscape - MiniMax faces competition from major internet companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, particularly in its consumer product offerings [13] - The company is also dealing with legal challenges, including a lawsuit from Disney regarding copyright infringement related to Hailuo AI [13]

Core Insights - MiniMax Group Ltd. has successfully developed a multi-modal AI model capable of processing text, speech, and video, which has gained significant traction since its market debut in October 2025 [1] - The company's initial years were challenging, described by the founder as "painful," but the strategy has proven effective as it now serves over 212 million users globally [1] - The recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange valued MiniMax at $6.5 billion, reflecting strong investor interest in the generative AI sector [2][3] Company Performance - The IPO was priced at the top end of the offer range, leading to a significant increase in share value, which more than doubled on its debut [3] - The founder, Yan Junjie, saw his personal wealth rise to approximately $3.5 billion following the IPO [3] - The company has attracted investments from notable figures in China's tech industry, including Richard Li and the gaming studio MiHoYo, as well as major tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent [4][5] Industry Context - The generative AI sector has seen substantial capital investment and is beginning to demonstrate commercial viability, as evidenced by MiniMax's successful market entry [2] - The backing from high-profile investors indicates a growing confidence in the potential of AI technologies [4][5]

Group 1: Loan and Social Financing Trends - The median forecast for new RMB loans in December 2025 is 0.77 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.22 trillion yuan compared to 0.99 trillion yuan in December 2024 [2] - The median forecast for new social financing in December 2025 is 1.74 trillion yuan, down 1.12 trillion yuan from 2.86 trillion yuan in December 2024 [6][9] - High-frequency data indicates that the manufacturing and construction PMIs in December are above the threshold, recorded at 50.1% and 52.8% respectively, suggesting potential support for corporate loans [4] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - The CPI for December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, showing a smaller decline than anticipated [12][16] - Food prices rose by 1.1%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, contributing to the overall CPI increase [15] - The PPI decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [16][17] Group 3: Economic and Financial Conditions - The M1 growth rate is expected to continue its downward trend, while M2 growth is projected to slightly decline, leading to an expansion of the M2-M1 gap [10][11] - The pressure on local finances due to hidden debt becoming visible is expected to persist, affecting credit availability [5] - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with businesses likely to prioritize efficiency in capital usage amid uneven recovery in profits and cash flows [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic operation was in the traditional off - season, but factors such as the late Spring Festival and the extended stocking cycle might boost industrial production. The export growth rate might decline slightly but still be better than that in October. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach around 4.5%, and the whole - year GDP was likely to achieve 5% and end smoothly [3][6]. - For the bond market, there was little suspense about the economic data in December. The market mainly focused on the verification of the "good start" of the economy at the beginning of the year. With the concentrated implementation of macro - policies to stabilize growth at the end of the year, the "two new" policies were issued one week earlier than in 2025, and the support amount for the early - batch "two important" and central budget - investment plan projects also increased compared with the previous year. January 2026 was expected to be the window for the concentrated effect of the "good start" policies, and high - frequency verification during the data "vacuum period" should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - CPI: It was expected that the CPI in December would rise to around 0.9% year - on - year. Fruit and vegetable prices supported the food price to rise above the seasonal level, and the non - food item was in line with the seasonality. The CPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][8]. - PPI: It was predicted that the PPI in December would rise to around - 1.9% year - on - year. The non - ferrous industry faced imported inflation pressure, and the prices of domestic bulk commodities such as steel and PTA improved. The PPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][14]. 3.2 Export - The export growth rate was expected to be around 5.0% in December. The export momentum in December was not weak, although the year - on - year growth rate of container throughput at ports was lower than that in November but better than that in October. The import was expected to increase by around 1.5% year - on - year, with the price support continuing to expand [3][21]. 3.3 Industrial The industrial growth rate in December was expected to be around 5.1%. The PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line, and the production sub - item further expanded. The late Spring Festival in 2026 extended the stocking cycle, which had a certain driving effect on production [3][6][24]. 3.4 Investment - The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to December was expected to be around - 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was about - 1.5%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was about - 16.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was about + 1.2% [3][6][33]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail in December was expected to be around 1.0%. As the national subsidy funds were approaching the end, the marginal boost to automobile consumption from the subsidy decline weakened. The year - on - year decline in gasoline prices widened, and the drag on social retail from petroleum product consumption continued to increase [3][6][36]. 3.6 Financial Data - In December, the bill interest rate declined against the trend, reflecting the weak credit impulse at the end of the year. The new credit in December was expected to be about 80 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 99 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The new social financing was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.85 billion yuan [3][6][45]. - The M2 growth rate was expected to remain around 8.0%. The new deposits were close to the seasonal level. From the asset side, the year - on - year growth rate of the credit balance might slightly decline to 6.3%, and the social financing growth rate might decline to around 8.4% affected by the high base of government bonds. From the liability side, the M2 in December might increase by 1.5 trillion yuan [3][48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Insights - The report highlights the capitalization of domestic large model unicorns, with MiniMax and Zhipu recently passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, indicating a trend towards commercialization in the large model sector [4][3] - MiniMax is noted for its leading multimodal capabilities and global expansion, with significant revenue growth and a focus on consumer and enterprise services [6][7] - Zhipu is positioned as an independent general-purpose large model provider, emphasizing localized deployment and cloud services, with substantial revenue growth driven by tailored AI solutions [8] Summary by Sections MiniMax - MiniMax has a total parameter count of 230 billion for its large language model M2, optimizing inference costs by activating only 10 billion parameters per inference [6] - The company has achieved a user base of 42.35 million for its AI image and video generation platform, "Hailuo," as of Q3 2025 [6] - MiniMax's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached $53.44 million, a year-on-year increase of 175%, with a gross margin of 23.3% [7] Zhipu - Zhipu launched China's first pre-trained large model GLM framework in 2021 and has developed a MaaS product platform serving over 8,000 institutional clients and 80 million terminal devices [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was $19 million, a year-on-year increase of 325%, with a gross margin of 50% [8] - Localized deployment accounted for 84.8% of Zhipu's revenue, focusing on customized AI models for specialized applications [8]

Group 1 - The total money supply in Hong Kong, measured by M2 and M3, increased by 0.2% in November, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1] - Seasonally adjusted M1 money supply rose by 1.2% in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, indicating investment-related activities [1] - The total amount of M2 and M3 money supply rose by 0.9% in November, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1] Group 2 - The total deposits of recognized institutions increased by 0.7% in November, with Hong Kong dollar deposits and foreign currency deposits rising by 0.2% and 1.1% respectively [1] - From the beginning of the year to the end of November, total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 10.5% and 3.4% respectively [1] - The total amount of RMB deposits in Hong Kong rose by 0.6% in November, reaching 1,002 billion RMB by the end of November [1] Group 3 - The total amount of loans and advances increased by 0.1% in November, with a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [2] - Loans used in Hong Kong, including trade finance, decreased by 0.1% in November, while loans used outside Hong Kong increased by 0.4% [2] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars decreased from 73.6% at the end of October to 73.2% at the end of November due to the rise in Hong Kong dollar deposits and the decline in loans [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the central bank is gradually downplaying quantitative targets and transitioning towards price - based tools, social financing and M2 are not decoupled from the bond market. The transformation takes time, and the central bank does not completely abandon quantitative targets. A decline in social financing is inherently favorable for the bond market. In 2026, the growth rate of social financing is expected to decline in a volatile manner, with the first and fourth quarters being relatively stable and the second and third quarters facing greater downward pressure. In particular, the disturbance of social financing to the bond market will significantly bottom out in the first quarter, so the bond market can be somewhat optimistic [2]. - The predicted growth rate of social financing in 2026 is 7.6%, corresponding to a new social financing of around 33.5 trillion yuan. The growth rate of M2 is expected to be around 7.1% [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Perspective on Social Financing and M2 in 2026 3.1.1 How to View the Growth Rates of Social Financing and M2 with the Downplaying of Quantity and Optimization of Intermediate Variables? - In November 2025, the central bank proposed to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually downplay the focus on quantitative targets. This sets the tone for the adjustment of the intermediate target of monetary policy in 2026. The growth rate of financial aggregates will decline naturally due to the large base and the shift from high - speed to high - quality economic growth [10][13]. - Downplaying quantitative targets does not mean having no requirements for social financing and M2. The transformation of the intermediate target of monetary policy takes time, and in the short term, the central bank still adheres to the "basic matching" principle [15]. 3.1.2 What Changes are There in the "Basic Matching" Principle? - Reasons for setting the "basic matching" principle: It is conducive to cross - cycle policy design, stabilizing the monetary aggregate in the long term, providing a scientific "anchor" for macro - policies, guiding market expectations, and stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio [15]. - Understanding of "basic matching": It does not mean "exactly equal"; it requires comprehensive consideration of nominal economic growth, potential output, and economic growth targets; and it is a medium - to - long - term concept, not a short - term one [19]. - By taking annual data as an example, the years when the growth rates of social financing and M2 were mentioned as "basically matching" with the nominal GDP growth rate are 2018, 2019, and 2021. The annual intervals for the "basic matching" of the growth rate differences between social financing and nominal GDP and between M2 and nominal GDP are [- 0.2%, 3.2%] and [- 2.4%, 1.2%] respectively. When refined to quarters, the time periods when the central bank quantitatively mentioned "basic matching" cover the third quarter of 2018 to early 2020, 2021 - 2023 (related to the economic cycle), and 2024 (switched to "economic expected targets") [20][22][23]. 3.2 Forecast of Social Financing and M2 in 2026 3.2.1 Total Forecast - Based on the predicted nominal GDP growth rate of about 4.5% in 2026, referring to the "basic matching" principle, the predicted growth rate of social financing is around 7.6%, corresponding to a new social financing of around 33.5 trillion yuan. Considering the strong base effect of M2 in 2026, the growth rate of M2 is expected to be around 7.1% [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sub - item Analysis of Social Financing in 2026 - **Credit**: The new credit in 2026 is expected to be around 15.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 5.6%. The rhythm is expected to be high in the front and low in the back, and the structure will continue to focus on the "Five Major Articles" [30][31]. - **Government Bonds**: The net financing of government bonds in 2026 is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan. The issuance rhythm is expected to be balanced and front - loaded, with the possibility of an increase in the fourth quarter [34][35]. - **Corporate Bonds**: The net financing of corporate bonds in 2026 is expected to be around 1.7 trillion yuan, with a rhythm of low in the front and high in the back [40]. - **Other Items**: The net financing of off - balance - sheet items is expected to be around 0 trillion yuan, and the total of stock financing, credit write - offs, ABS, and foreign currency loans is expected to be around 1.1 trillion yuan, with a rhythm of low in the front and high in the back [41]. 3.2.3 Forecast of the Rhythm within the Year - The overall new social financing is 33.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a stock growth rate of 7.6%. The rhythm of social financing and M2 is expected to be high in the front, low in the middle, and stable in the back. The predicted credit growth rates/ social financing growth rates/M2 growth rates for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 are (6.3%/5.7%/5.8%/5.6%)/(8.1%/7.8%/7.6%/7.6%)/(7.6%/7.2%/6.8%/7.1%) [4][5]. 3.3 How to View Interest Rates When Social Financing is at a Low Level and Credit is Declining? - Currently, policies are downplaying the focus on financial aggregates, and the intermediate variables of monetary policy are shifting from quantitative to price - based tools [45]. - However, the relationship between social financing, M2, and interest rates does not change with monetary policy. A downward trend in social financing growth allows for moderate optimism in the bond market. The bond market is under less pressure in the first quarter [46].