Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the companies mentioned, but it highlights potential beneficiaries of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 launch, indicating a positive outlook for certain players in the AI networking value chain [1][20]. Core Insights - Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip, launched on June 3, 2025, utilizes 3nm technology and supports 200G SerDes, enhancing networking transmission bandwidth and reducing latency. This launch is expected to drive a new technology upgrade cycle in the global AI infrastructure and networking markets, benefiting companies with advanced technologies [1][36]. - The report identifies key players that may benefit from the TH6 upgrade cycle, including Zhongji InnoLight and Suzhou TFC in the optical transceiver market, Shennan Circuits and WUS PCB in PCB/CCL manufacturing, and Unisplendour in AI server/switch manufacturing [1]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI networking, highlighting the shift from Ethernet to NVIDIA's InfiniBand in large-scale AI data centers, while also noting the emergence of Ultra Ethernet specifications aimed at improving communication efficiencies for scaling out AI clusters [2][20]. Summary by Sections AI Networking Overview - The AI networking market is divided into scale-out and scale-up networks, with Ethernet historically leading in traditional data centers but losing ground to InfiniBand in AI infrastructure deployments [2][11]. - The Ultra Ethernet Consortium has developed specifications to enhance Ethernet's capabilities, aiming to regain momentum in the AI networking space [2][13]. Scale-Up Networking Technologies - NVIDIA's NVLink and the newly developed UALink Consortium's Ultra Accelerator Link are key technologies for scale-up networking, enabling high-speed interconnections between GPUs and AI accelerators [3][24]. - Broadcom's Scale-Up Ethernet (SUE) aims to provide low latency and high bandwidth connectivity for XPU scale-up networks, competing with NVIDIA's NVLink [31][34]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The global AI application landscape shows strong growth, with OpenAI's ChatGPT leading in daily active users (DAU), reaching 110 million in early June 2025 [4][74]. - In China, Bytedance's Doubao has surpassed DeepSeek in DAU, indicating a competitive generative AI application market [5][77]. Competitive Landscape - Broadcom's TH6 switch chip offers a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, significantly higher than its predecessors, and is designed to support both scale-up and scale-out architectures [36][41]. - Competitors like Cisco and NVIDIA are also advancing their switch technologies, with Cisco's SiliconOne G200 and NVIDIA's Spectrum series providing strong alternatives in the market [41][42]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rapid growth in demand for 1.6T optical modules and data center interconnects driven by the adoption of Broadcom's TH6 [38]. - The overall switch market is projected to grow, with cloud service providers expected to account for a significant portion of data center switch sales by 2027 [52][53].

12 June 2025 | 9:11PM HKT GC Tech: Focuslight (688167.SS): Laser and Optics components, rising demand from local SPE and data center We talked to Focuslight (688167.SS, not covered) management recently. Key takeaways 1. Key growth drivers in 2025: Management views laser and optical products for (1) pan-semiconductor, (2) optical communication, (3) AR/ VR market as key drivers this year, and expects to see double digit revenues YoY growth in 2025E. The company has global customer base and is shifting some of ...

Summary of Lumentum (LITE) FY Conference Call - May 13, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum (LITE) - **Industry**: Optical components and networking solutions Key Points Demand and Market Outlook - No observed slowdown in ordering patterns; book-to-bill remains positive [3][4] - Customer feedback indicates continued strong demand, with no anticipated slowdown in the next four to five quarters [3][4] - CapEx spending from cloud companies is expected to remain stable or improve in 2026 compared to 2025 [6][7] Tariff Impact and Mitigation Strategies - Tariffs have impacted margins by approximately 100 basis points, primarily due to reverse tariffs on imports from the U.S. to China [8][9] - Lumentum has manufacturing facilities in both China and Thailand, allowing for flexible supply chain management to mitigate tariff impacts [9][10] - Plans to scale up manufacturing in Thailand as a primary strategy to navigate potential tariff challenges [12][13] Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The optical industry has changed significantly since the sale of Finisar; Lumentum now has a higher component mix and a strong laser footprint [16][17] - Increased demand from U.S. hyperscalers for domestic suppliers due to security concerns is driving market dynamics [20] - The rate of change in the market is accelerating, favoring companies that invest in innovation [21] Business Strategy and Growth Areas - Near-term growth is expected from the transceiver market, where Lumentum currently holds a low single-digit market share [22] - Long-term strategy aims to shift focus towards higher-margin components, particularly co-packaged optics [23][24] - Vertical integration is seen as beneficial but not essential for improving margins in the transceiver business [25][28] Revenue Opportunities and Product Development - Optical Communication Systems (OCS) are expected to generate early revenue by the end of the calendar year, with material revenue anticipated in Q2 FY 2026 [55] - OCS offers advantages in cost, power consumption, and latency, making it a strong alternative to electrical solutions in data centers [54] - The company is exploring opportunities in industrial applications, particularly in semiconductor packaging, to improve profitability [63] Financial Performance and Margin Expectations - Current gross margins for transceivers are below desired levels, with expectations to reach low to mid-30s percentage [49][52] - Overall business margins are targeted to exceed 40% as the company shifts focus towards components [52][53] Conclusion - Lumentum is positioned to capitalize on strong demand in the optical components market, with strategic plans to navigate tariff impacts and enhance profitability through innovation and vertical integration. The company aims to leverage its manufacturing capabilities and market dynamics to achieve sustainable growth in the coming years.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter revenue was $425.2 million, exceeding the high end of guidance, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.57 [21] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 35.2%, up 290 basis points sequentially and 650 basis points year-over-year [21] - Non-GAAP operating margin was 10.8%, an increase of 290 basis points sequentially and 1,100 basis points year-over-year [21] - Cash and short-term investments decreased by $30 million to $867 million [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud and Networking segment revenue was $365.2 million, up 8% sequentially and 16% year-over-year [23] - Industrial Tech segment revenue decreased by 5% sequentially but increased by 14% year-over-year, with a profit margin of 4.3% [24] - Cloud and Networking segment profit increased to 20%, up 380 basis points sequentially and 540 basis points year-over-year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 25% over the next five years, driven by the convergence of optics and electronics [9] - Demand from hyperscale cloud customers continues to be a significant driver of revenue growth [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve quarterly revenue of $750 million, gross margins above 40%, and operating margins greater than 20% [8] - Focus on expanding capabilities in the optical components market, particularly in transceivers and co-packaged optics [10][13] - Strategic investments are being made in high-growth areas, particularly cloud and AI applications [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving medium and long-term financial targets despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts [19] - The company is focused on pricing, disciplined spending, and execution to navigate challenges [19] - Anticipated strong sequential growth in the Cloud and Networking segment for Q4, driven by new capacity and demand from network equipment manufacturers [16] Other Important Information - The company is ramping production in CW lasers for silicon photonics transceiver applications [12] - The company has taken actions to rationalize the Industrial Tech portfolio, closing two R&D sites [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company tracking towards the $500 million revenue target? - Management confirmed they are still on track for the $500 million target by the end of the year, guiding quarter by quarter [31] Question: Update on datacom chip business performance? - The company is outperforming initial expectations in terms of volume and ASP, with a focus on EMLs [32][34] Question: Clarification on tariff headwinds? - The company quantified a 100 basis point headwind to gross margins due to increased component costs and tariffs [41][43] Question: Contributions from co-packaged optics? - Co-packaged optics are expected to take time to ramp, with a focus on laser components in the near term [48] Question: Telecom performance and supply constraints? - Telecom performance met expectations, with improvements anticipated in supply for pumps and tunables moving into Q4 [99][100] Question: Guidance caution related to macro or tariffs? - Management acknowledged macro uncertainty but expressed confidence in the guidance provided, with an overall positive trend in demand [105]

Summary of Conference Call on ABF Substrate Industry Industry Overview - The ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate market is expected to experience oversupply conditions until the second half of 2026, with a projected 7% oversupply in 2025 [1][11][25]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for ABF substrates has been revised down by 12% and 10% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to lower-than-expected AI server GPU substrate shipments and increased pricing pressure [2][22]. Key Insights - **Demand Dynamics**: The demand for AI server substrates has been cut by approximately 50% for 2025, reflecting a significant decrease in AI server rack shipments, which are expected to decline by 35% [2][60]. - **Pricing Pressure**: The average selling price (ASP) for AI GPU substrates has decreased from over US$120 earlier in the year to US$100, indicating a challenging pricing environment [2][60]. - **Impact on Suppliers**: Tier-2 suppliers like Unimicron and Kinsus are expected to face significant challenges due to their exposure to legacy ABF products and weaker-than-expected spillover orders from tier-1 suppliers [2][9][24]. Supplier Performance - **Unimicron**: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to weaker AI spillover orders and a slow PC demand outlook. Target price revised from NT$170 to NT$90 [9][10]. - **Kinsus**: Downgraded to Sell from Neutral, with a new target price of NT$63, reflecting less favorable growth in the mid-to-low-end ABF substrate market [9][10]. - **Ibiden**: Maintained Buy rating with a target price of ¥6200, benefiting from its leading position in the high-end substrate market [10][22]. - **Zhen Ding Technology (ZDT)**: Initiated with a Buy rating, expected to benefit from ABF demand expansion from Chinese IC design houses [8]. Future Catalysts - The mid-to-long-term outlook for Taiwan ABF suppliers is expected to improve with the localization of AI IC production in China, projected to grow at a CAGR of 53% from 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - Adoption of CPO (Chip-on-Package) technology is anticipated to double the consumption of switch IC ABF substrates compared to general 2.5D packaging substrates [3]. Capacity and Utilization - The overall industry capacity is expected to increase by approximately 40% from 2024 to 2027, with a significant portion of new capacity planned before 2024 [29][53]. - Utilization rates for ABF substrate suppliers are projected to improve in 2025, but overall industry utilization will remain below 80% [27][24]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include higher electricity costs in Taiwan and the impact of tariffs, which could increase costs as a percentage of revenue significantly [46][45]. - The overall cash margins for ABF substrate suppliers are expected to remain under pressure until at least the second half of 2025, with a potential recovery starting in 2026 [44][59]. Conclusion - The ABF substrate industry is currently facing a challenging environment with oversupply and pricing pressures, particularly affecting tier-2 suppliers. However, long-term growth opportunities exist through technological advancements and increased demand from AI-related applications. The market is expected to stabilize post-2026, with significant growth driven by AI and server upgrades.

Core Viewpoint - FormFactor reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings surpassing estimates and a positive outlook for the second quarter, despite some revenue declines in specific segments [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP earnings for Q1 2025 were 23 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.05% and increasing 27.8% year over year [1]. - Revenues reached $171.4 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.79% and showing a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, although there was a sequential decline of 9.6% [1][2]. Segment Revenue Details - Probe card revenues were $136.6 million, down 0.1% year over year, primarily due to lower DRAM and Flash revenues [2]. - Foundry and Logic revenues accounted for 49.8% of total revenues at $85.3 million, down 1.7% year over year [3]. - DRAM revenues increased by 6.5% year over year to $48.9 million, while Flash revenues fell 40% to $2.4 million [3]. - Systems revenues rose 8.7% year over year to $34.8 million [3]. Geographic Revenue Performance - Revenues from Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, and Singapore increased significantly, with growth rates of 36.8%, 51.8%, 21.2%, and 29.2% year over year, respectively [4]. - Conversely, revenues from the United States, South Korea, China, Europe, and the rest of the world saw declines of 12%, 14.8%, 12.8%, 11.4%, and 25.9% year over year, respectively [4]. Operating Results - The gross margin improved by 50 basis points year over year to 39.2% [5]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased by 4% year over year to $50.2 million, with operating expenses as a percentage of revenues down 170 basis points to 29.3% [5]. - The non-GAAP operating margin increased by 220 basis points year over year to 9.9% [5]. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of March 29, 2025, cash and cash equivalents, along with marketable securities, totaled $299.0 million, down from $360 million as of December 28, 2024 [6]. - Cash generated from operating activities was $23.5 million, a decrease from $35.9 million in the previous quarter [6]. - Free cash flow for the first quarter was $6.3 million, down from $28.8 million in the prior quarter, attributed to reduced operating cash flows and increased capital expenditure [7]. Future Outlook - FormFactor anticipates second-quarter 2025 revenues of $190 million (plus-or-minus $5 million), which is a 6.10% decline from the year-ago quarter [10]. - The company expects a non-GAAP gross margin of 40% (plus-or-minus 1.5%) and earnings of 30 cents per share (plus-or-minus 4 cents), indicating a 22.86% decline from the year-ago quarter [11]. - The company remains optimistic about long-term growth, driven by trends in advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, and co-packaged optics [9].

LIVERMORE, Calif., April 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FormFactor, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORM) today announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 ended March 29, 2025. Quarterly revenues were $171.4 million, a decrease of 9.6% compared to $189.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, and an increase of 1.6% from $168.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Foundry & Logic first-quarter demand increased low single digits sequentiallyExperienced reduction in DRAM as export control ...