李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继 而反映现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据， 记录日为刚过去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 记得去年当金价于第四季度在没有特别消息时依然攀升，当时笔者便说有可能是有些内部人士知 道一些事情，因此提前得到消息的人都在悄悄地买入黄金——现在回看，很明显就是有人知道特 朗普要对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗动手，并之后想染指格陵兰。古巴及加拿大的形势也难言安稳。 事实上，这些是极强烈的信号，代表着： 按照传统智慧，当商品市场已经变成大部分人的话题时，往往预示着牛市可能很快会完结，但这 次情况可能完全不同 ， 因为过去几十年全球的规则已经出现重大改变，从全球一体化演变至当前 群龙无首的"战国时代" ，因此今年商品的大方向依然是向上。 | | COMEX黄金 | | | COMEX白银 | Nymex铂金 | | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | -- ...

More on the markets. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar, chief investment officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us.Um, what does it look like. How bad is it in your view if they quote unquote lose control of where the yen is going and where JGB yields are going in terms of not just the carry trade. Um, but also as Guy had alluded to, the money that Japanese investors have invested directly in other assets around the world and that's a lot of it is uh US treasurie ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, particularly focusing on silver, gold, and platinum, highlighting a cautious approach among speculators due to perceived high prices and market uncertainties [2][30]. Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - As of January 13, silver fund longs decreased by 16% to 3,453 tons, the lowest level since July 24, 2012; shorts fell by 18% to 1,114 tons, the lowest since September 12, 2017; net longs dropped by 15% to 2,340 tons, the lowest since the end of February 2024 [2][5]. - Speculators in the U.S. futures market are hesitant to go long on silver due to high prices but are also reluctant to short, leading to a wait-and-see approach [2][5]. - Despite expectations of delayed interest rate cuts in the U.S., precious metal prices rose, partly due to news of Powell's investigation, which signals potential market instability [2][30]. Group 2: Gold and Platinum Market Insights - Gold fund longs increased by 8% to 488 tons, while shorts decreased by 2% to 63 tons, resulting in a net long increase of 10% to 425 tons, the highest in three weeks [5][10]. - Platinum fund longs fell by 2% to 30 tons, and shorts decreased by 5% to 18 tons, marking the lowest levels in 134 weeks; net longs increased by 3% to 12 tons, the highest in three weeks [6][10]. - The article notes that platinum is currently undervalued relative to silver, with the historical exchange rate of platinum to silver at a low of 25.895 ounces of silver per ounce of platinum, down 31% from the peak in June 2025 [30]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The article highlights that the market sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, with fund shorts at the lowest level since 2007, indicating potential risks in the copper market [16][30]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has been pushed back, which could serve as a reason for a potential softening in precious metal prices [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio, which has shown a decline, indicating that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks fall, caution is warranted [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the latest CFTC data, highlighting the disparity between physical demand and futures market dynamics, particularly in gold and silver [2][17]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 64.4% in 2025, despite a contraction in net long positions in futures contracts [2][17]. - Silver saw a remarkable rise of 147% in 2025, with the gold-silver ratio declining by 33.4% [3]. - Platinum prices rose by 127% in 2025, with its valuation relative to silver at a historical low, indicating it is currently undervalued compared to silver [3][26]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fund Positions - As of December 23, 2025, net long positions in gold futures were at 428 million, up by 2.5% from the previous week, while silver saw a decrease of 1.8% in net long positions [5][8]. - The net long position in platinum futures dropped significantly by 30.9%, indicating a bearish sentiment [5]. - The sentiment in the copper market is notably optimistic, with net short positions at their lowest since records began in 2007, reflecting excessive bullishness [18]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March 2026 is approaching 50%, with a slight increase from previous weeks [25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between interest rate changes and commodity prices, particularly in the context of a potential new bull market [31][35]. - The market is currently speculating on the Fed's future actions, with some investors betting on rate hikes in 2027, despite low probabilities at present [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the potential volatility in asset prices due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership and interest rate decisions in 2026 [2][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The CFTC data indicates that the market sentiment towards precious metals is currently optimistic, with over half of surveyed retail investors believing that silver prices could reach $100 by 2026 [2][29]. - The article warns that while such targets may seem reasonable, price movements may not be linear, and participants should be cautious of leverage and potential losses [2][29]. - The article notes that both the platinum-to-copper and silver-to-copper ratios are expected to rise sharply in 2025, indicating that copper prices may lag behind precious metals [2][29]. Group 2: CFTC Data Insights - As of December 16, the net long positions for various metals show a mixed trend: gold's net long positions increased by 7.6%, while silver's decreased by 13.2% [4][8]. - The net long positions for platinum increased by 11.9%, while copper's net positions turned positive after being negative for a long time [11][14]. - The article highlights that the sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, as short positions have reached their lowest level since 2007, suggesting a potential market correction [2][17]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a near 50% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026, with expectations of further cuts in April [22][29]. - There is speculation that the Fed may begin raising rates again in 2027, which could impact the ongoing commodity bull market [3][29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's actions and the potential implications for asset prices, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures [30][29]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should be cautious in the first half of 2026 due to expected price volatility and the need for careful leverage management [2][29]. - It also mentions that the gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has remained stable, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices over the past few years [20][21]. - The article advises tracking overseas mining stock prices as a forward-looking tool to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements in gold [21][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, in light of recent CFTC data and the potential for interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and CFTC Data - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions was only updated until October 28, showing a significant increase in both gold and silver net long positions, with gold up 14.7% and silver up 22.4% [2][6]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 80 to 72, marking the lowest level since August 2021, with a cumulative decline of 20.7% this year [2][21]. - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising to nearly 90% [2][24]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to consider their strategies for the period between potential rate cuts in December and April, as the market anticipates a 50% chance of another cut in April [2][26]. - The article suggests that if Trump were to regain influence over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to further rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices [26][29]. - The current market dynamics indicate a strong demand for physical gold, which may not be fully reflected in futures market positions, suggesting a potential for price increases [16][30]. Group 3: Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, net long positions in gold futures have decreased by 42%, while silver has seen a 35% increase [7][8]. - Platinum and copper have also shown significant changes, with copper net positions turning positive for the first time this year [10][13]. - The article highlights that the gold price has remained high despite a reduction in long positions, indicating strong physical demand [16][19]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and potential stagflation, which typically favors investments in commodities [29][30]. - The relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices is emphasized, suggesting that a decline in rates could lead to higher gold prices, especially if inflation persists [30][32].

Core Insights - Silver is significantly outperforming gold, indicating a potential second phase of the commodity bull market, with spot silver prices surging over 85% in 2025, rising from under $30 to over $54 per ounce [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rally in silver prices is driven by tight inventories, persistent investor flows, and a structural supply deficit, with projections of silver reaching $60 next year [3] - Industrial demand for silver rose to 689 million ounces in 2024, with photovoltaic (PV) applications accounting for 244 million ounces, reflecting a more than 150% increase from 2020 [5] - The Silver Institute anticipates a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces, despite weak demand for jewelry and silverware, which supports elevated prices [6] Production Challenges - Over 70% of mined silver is a byproduct of other metal production, limiting the ability of producers to respond quickly to price increases [7] - Several mines are scheduled to close by 2030, which may further tighten silver output [8] Technical Analysis - Silver's price patterns indicate a potential continuation of upward momentum, with a cup-and-handle pattern suggesting that silver may have further gains in 2025 [11]

Core Insights - The current energy constraints are impacting various sectors, particularly data centers and the commodity market, with significant implications for supply and investment [1][6][9] - A broad bull market in commodities is emerging, with notable increases in prices for gold, base metals, and agricultural products, while crude oil remains a laggard [2][11] - The overall commodity complex has seen a 25% increase this year, indicating physical supply constraints that are affecting market dynamics [3][11] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a resurgence, with copper prices nearing $11,000 per tonne, which may stimulate new projects, although there is a lack of available projects even at higher price levels [8][14] - Investment in upstream oil projects is lacking, with no new major projects anticipated beyond March next year, leading to a potential supply deficit [5][6] - The focus on returning value to shareholders rather than overspending is creating a supply shortage in the commodity market [6][11] Investment Considerations - The current investment landscape is characterized by a shift towards raw materials and commodity equities, as these are expected to provide better returns amid rising prices [18][20] - The anticipated price for copper could reach $15,000 per tonne in the next 2 to 3 years, driven by demand and supply constraints [14][17] - The volatility of commodities presents both risks and opportunities, with direct ownership of commodities offering potential for short-term gains while equities provide long-term price exposure [19][20]

Core Insights - The financial markets are experiencing significant stress, reminiscent of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, particularly in private credit and business development companies [3][4][23] - There is a major shift occurring from financial assets to hard assets, driven by inflation and interest rate normalization, with a notable migration towards commodities like gold and copper [12][28] - The concentration of the S&P 500 is concerning, with the top two stocks comprising 15% of the index, which poses risks to investors' portfolios [7][8] Financial Sector - A major move in the financial sector is anticipated, with potential defaults in private credit and business development companies [4][23] - Internal market indicators show a breakdown in financials, particularly in subprime lending and student loans, indicating underlying weaknesses [22][23] - The current environment is characterized by complacency in the index, despite deteriorating internal market conditions [21][22] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider hard assets over growth stocks, as the latter are becoming increasingly risky due to market concentration and potential accounting issues [10][13] - The classic commodity bull market typically starts with gold, followed by silver, platinum, and other commodities, suggesting a strategic approach for investors [17] - There is a call for diversification into international equities and smaller market cap companies, which may offer better growth opportunities [47][48] Economic Trends - The reshoring of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is expected to lead to higher production costs, contributing to a sustained inflation regime [27][28] - The Fed's easing bias, despite a strong economy, is likely to weaken the dollar and drive capital towards emerging markets and value-centric global equities [30][32] - The current economic landscape is marked by a significant increase in the NASDAQ 100's market capitalization, indicating a potential shift back to value investments [10][32] Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector, particularly natural gas, is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with companies expected to benefit from the infrastructure needs of AI and other technologies [18][20] - Small-cap utilities are seen as attractive investments due to their potential for growth and dividend yields, with some being potential acquisition targets [41][62] - Companies involved in nuclear energy and power generation are positioned well for future growth, especially as demand for clean energy increases [66]

Core Viewpoint - Trailbreaker Resources Ltd. is advancing multiple mining projects in British Columbia and Yukon Territory, focusing on gold, copper-gold, and copper-molybdenum exploration, with significant developments in the Atsutla Gold project, Liberty Cu-Mo project, and Coho Cu-Au property [1][15]. Project Summaries Atsutla Gold Project - The Atsutla Gold project is a high-grade gold discovery located 120 km northwest of Dease Lake, BC, featuring high-grade vein-hosted gold and a Cu-Au-Ag porphyry target called the Swan zone [3][6]. - Recent consolidation of key ground within the property has identified the Highlands zone, which has recorded gold grades up to 630 g/t Au in grab samples [3][5]. - The project is fully permitted for drilling, with plans for a first-pass exploration program and ground-truthing of drill collar locations [4][6]. Liberty Cu-Mo Project - The Liberty Cu-Mo porphyry project, located 60 km northwest of Quesnel, BC, has undergone significant advancement with a seven-hole diamond drilling program totaling 2,442 m in 2024 [7]. - The project area has expanded from 5,054 hectares to 9,453 hectares, and a phase 2 drill program is planned, although approval for the drill permit has been delayed due to additional required studies [8]. Coho Cu-Au Property - The Coho property, acquired in May 2025, is a Cu-Au porphyry target located 30 km west of the Mount Milligan mine, considered one of the more advanced projects in the portfolio [9]. - An aggressive drill program is planned, with a new application for a 5-year area-based permit that will include up to 50 drill sites [10][11]. Other Projects - The Wheaton Gold property, an orogenic gold prospect, was acquired in July 2025, and a surface exploration program is being mobilized for 2025 [12]. - The Castle Rock property on Vancouver Island has received a 5-year area-based drill permit, allowing for up to 40 drill sites and 40 line-km of ground geophysics [13]. - The company maintains a diverse portfolio of exploration projects across BC and Yukon, including properties like McMurdo, Eakin Creek, Eagle Lake, Sheldon, and Plateau [14].