So I'm going to keep pounding the table that the best thing for Bitcoin is a continuing credit problem which I don't think can be resolved on itself and at the same point having a commodity bear a bull market which is based on scarcity and then a shorting of abundance which is based on these growth assets if all of that plays in. What's going on guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordi Visser. We're going to talk about what's going on with Iran, what's going on with oil prices, inflation, deflatio ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity bull market is experiencing a shift, with precious metal prices declining while energy prices are on the rise [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - From late 2023 through January 2024, precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, saw significant increases [1] - Currently, gold and silver are in correction territory, indicating a downturn in their prices [1] Group 2: Energy Prices - In contrast to precious metals, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have been increasing recently [1] - This shift marks a reversal from the previous trend where energy prices were sagging while precious metals were rising [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Disruption - The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil production, equating to about 20 million barrels per day [4][5] - Refiners are scrambling for alternative crude supplies, leading to increased prices, with Brent crude rising from around $70 per barrel to an intraday high of $119.50 [6][4] - The International Energy Agency is considering a coordinated release of up to 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, which would be the largest drawdown ever, yet only cover about twenty days of lost supply [7][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - China has imposed export restrictions on refined petroleum products to protect its domestic supply, as it has become the world's dominant crude importer [5][4] - Several producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have had to curtail production due to onshore storage capacity reaching limits [8][4] - Iran has targeted oil infrastructure in the region, aiming to disrupt markets and exert political pressure [9][4] Group 3: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity bull market may not have truly begun, as most commodities remain significantly below historical highs, with only seven out of forty-two commodities trading at record nominal highs [19][18] - The Goldman Sachs Commodity Spot Index is still 32% below its nominal high from 2008, indicating that the current market may still be in its early stages [20][18] - Historical patterns suggest that commodity cycles are fundamentally capital cycles, where prolonged neglect leads to future shortages [23][22] Group 4: Precious Metals Performance - Silver was the standout performer in the fourth quarter, surging 51%, while gold advanced 13% [67][72] - Precious metals equities, particularly silver and gold miners, have seen significant gains, with silver equities rising approximately 166% over the year [73][72] - A recent surge in silver prices has triggered a sell signal for gold, suggesting a potential correction in the gold market [74][72] Group 5: Base Metals and Copper - Copper prices rose 17% in the fourth quarter, finishing the year up 41%, driven by supply disruptions at major mines [67][88] - Despite strong performance, the copper market is now entering a surplus phase, with rising inventories indicating a shift in market dynamics [90][88] - Base metal equities have significantly outperformed the broader market, with copper mining stocks rising 20% in the fourth quarter [89][88] Group 6: Natural Gas Market Dynamics - U.S. natural gas prices rose approximately 12% during the fourth quarter, driven by colder-than-normal weather [112][114] - The narrative surrounding natural gas supply growth may be shifting, as production growth has slowed and demand for LNG is expected to increase [120][116] - Investors are advised to maintain exposure to natural gas-related investments, as current valuations may prove conservative [124][120] Group 7: Uranium Market Outlook - Uranium spot prices remained stable, while term prices increased by 7%, indicating a tightening market [125][126] - Demand for uranium is projected to rise significantly due to growth in nuclear power generation, with estimates suggesting an 85% increase in demand by 2040 [127][126] - Supply challenges in the uranium mining industry may further support price increases in the coming years [128][126] Group 8: Agricultural Market Trends - Grain prices showed mixed results, with corn and soybean prices rising slightly while wheat prices declined [130][131] - The agricultural sector is experiencing a prolonged bear market, with prices for major grains down between 45% and 65% since their peaks in 2022 [131][130] - Fertilizer prices have also shown a downward trend, indicating ongoing challenges in the agricultural market [131][130]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly focusing on profit-taking activities and market sentiment regarding gold and silver, while also analyzing the implications of potential changes in U.S. monetary policy under the new Federal Reserve chair [2][27][28]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold mining stocks have outperformed the metals themselves, with a notable decline in prices following a significant rise in January [2][19]. - Silver prices surged from $71.26 to $116.58 in January, marking a 63.6% increase within a month, following a 147% rise in the previous year [2][27]. - The net long positions in U.S. futures for gold, silver, and platinum have decreased significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6][10][12]. Group 2: CFTC Data Analysis - As of January 27, net long positions for gold fell by 12.8% to 378 tons, the lowest in eight weeks, while silver's net long positions dropped by 35.6% to 1,134 tons, the lowest since March 2024 [3][6]. - Platinum's net long positions decreased by 62.1% to 3 tons, marking the lowest level in 37 weeks [6][10]. - The overall sentiment among speculators in the U.S. futures market suggests that silver prices are perceived as excessively high, leading to increased short positions [6][10]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's strategic investments in critical materials are expected to support international prices of commodities like rare earths [17]. - The market is currently experiencing confusion regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with varying probabilities for future rate cuts [24][26]. - The article suggests that the transition from a globalized economy to a more fragmented "Warring States" era may influence commodity prices positively in the long term [30][31]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold mining stocks as a leading indicator for gold prices, suggesting that a divergence between the two could signal caution for investors [19]. - The gold-to-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, has fluctuated significantly, indicating varying levels of fear and optimism in the market [21][22]. - The article warns against the misconception that rising prices will continue indefinitely, highlighting the cyclical nature of investment tools [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the current market dynamics have shifted from a stable global leadership era to a "Warring States" period, indicating that commodities, particularly gold and physical assets, are becoming more reliable investments [5][31]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The CFTC data indicates that as of January 20, the net long position in COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to 433 tons, marking the highest level in 16 weeks, while the net long position in silver decreased by 25% to 1,761 tons, the lowest since February 2024 [3][8]. - The article highlights that the sentiment among speculators in the U.S. futures market is shifting, with an increase in short positions in silver, suggesting that investors believe silver prices are excessively high [8][12]. - Platinum's net long position decreased by 35% to 8 tons, indicating a similar trend to silver where long positions are being reduced [8][12]. Group 2: Price Trends and Historical Context - The article notes that gold prices have risen by 64.4% in 2025, despite a contraction in net long positions, reflecting strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [16][18]. - The historical context is provided, stating that platinum is currently undervalued relative to silver, with the platinum-to-silver ratio at a historical low of 26.88 ounces of silver per ounce of platinum [30]. - The article also mentions that copper prices are expected to rise due to strong demand driven by technological advancements, despite being in a bear market historically [18][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's current stance, indicating a low probability of interest rate cuts in the near term, with only a 2.8% chance of a cut by January 28, 2026 [28]. - It emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy, particularly if inflation pressures resurface while the Fed begins to lower rates [36]. - The article concludes that the investment landscape will be volatile in the first half of 2026, with potential price fluctuations as the market awaits clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve [34].

Group 1: Currency and Interest Rates - The potential loss of control over the yen and Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields could impact global interest rates, particularly in Europe and the US, as rising JGB yields may act as a magnet for higher long-term interest rates globally [2][3][4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced short-term rates by 200 basis points, while German and French bond yields are at multi-year highs, indicating a global trend towards rising yields if JGB yields continue to increase [4] - The Japanese yen is currently one of the cheapest currencies against the US dollar, which may either maintain its cheapness or potentially reverse, influencing other Asian currencies [4][5] Group 2: Dollar Weakness and Its Implications - Continued weakness in the US dollar could lead to broader impacts across various currencies, affecting foreign investments in US assets and potentially leading to reduced dollar holdings by foreign investors [6][12] - A weaker dollar historically benefits US equities, but it may also create headwinds if it negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, which is crucial for consumer spending in the US economy [10][12] - Foreign ownership of US Treasuries remains significant at about 30%, down from 50% a decade ago, indicating that further dollar weakness could disrupt investment flows and complicate inflation management for the Federal Reserve [11][12] Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - A weaker dollar typically signals rising commodity prices, suggesting a potential bull market in commodities, including oil and natural gas, which are currently perceived as underpriced [14][15] - The overall commodity market is expected to experience upward pressure, with oil prices potentially rising from current levels, complicating the inflation narrative for the Federal Reserve [17]

More on the markets. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar, chief investment officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us.Um, what does it look like. How bad is it in your view if they quote unquote lose control of where the yen is going and where JGB yields are going in terms of not just the carry trade. Um, but also as Guy had alluded to, the money that Japanese investors have invested directly in other assets around the world and that's a lot of it is uh US treasurie ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, particularly focusing on silver, gold, and platinum, highlighting a cautious approach among speculators due to perceived high prices and market uncertainties [2][30]. Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - As of January 13, silver fund longs decreased by 16% to 3,453 tons, the lowest level since July 24, 2012; shorts fell by 18% to 1,114 tons, the lowest since September 12, 2017; net longs dropped by 15% to 2,340 tons, the lowest since the end of February 2024 [2][5]. - Speculators in the U.S. futures market are hesitant to go long on silver due to high prices but are also reluctant to short, leading to a wait-and-see approach [2][5]. - Despite expectations of delayed interest rate cuts in the U.S., precious metal prices rose, partly due to news of Powell's investigation, which signals potential market instability [2][30]. Group 2: Gold and Platinum Market Insights - Gold fund longs increased by 8% to 488 tons, while shorts decreased by 2% to 63 tons, resulting in a net long increase of 10% to 425 tons, the highest in three weeks [5][10]. - Platinum fund longs fell by 2% to 30 tons, and shorts decreased by 5% to 18 tons, marking the lowest levels in 134 weeks; net longs increased by 3% to 12 tons, the highest in three weeks [6][10]. - The article notes that platinum is currently undervalued relative to silver, with the historical exchange rate of platinum to silver at a low of 25.895 ounces of silver per ounce of platinum, down 31% from the peak in June 2025 [30]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The article highlights that the market sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, with fund shorts at the lowest level since 2007, indicating potential risks in the copper market [16][30]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has been pushed back, which could serve as a reason for a potential softening in precious metal prices [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio, which has shown a decline, indicating that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks fall, caution is warranted [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the latest CFTC data, highlighting the disparity between physical demand and futures market dynamics, particularly in gold and silver [2][17]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 64.4% in 2025, despite a contraction in net long positions in futures contracts [2][17]. - Silver saw a remarkable rise of 147% in 2025, with the gold-silver ratio declining by 33.4% [3]. - Platinum prices rose by 127% in 2025, with its valuation relative to silver at a historical low, indicating it is currently undervalued compared to silver [3][26]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fund Positions - As of December 23, 2025, net long positions in gold futures were at 428 million, up by 2.5% from the previous week, while silver saw a decrease of 1.8% in net long positions [5][8]. - The net long position in platinum futures dropped significantly by 30.9%, indicating a bearish sentiment [5]. - The sentiment in the copper market is notably optimistic, with net short positions at their lowest since records began in 2007, reflecting excessive bullishness [18]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March 2026 is approaching 50%, with a slight increase from previous weeks [25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between interest rate changes and commodity prices, particularly in the context of a potential new bull market [31][35]. - The market is currently speculating on the Fed's future actions, with some investors betting on rate hikes in 2027, despite low probabilities at present [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the potential volatility in asset prices due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership and interest rate decisions in 2026 [2][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The CFTC data indicates that the market sentiment towards precious metals is currently optimistic, with over half of surveyed retail investors believing that silver prices could reach $100 by 2026 [2][29]. - The article warns that while such targets may seem reasonable, price movements may not be linear, and participants should be cautious of leverage and potential losses [2][29]. - The article notes that both the platinum-to-copper and silver-to-copper ratios are expected to rise sharply in 2025, indicating that copper prices may lag behind precious metals [2][29]. Group 2: CFTC Data Insights - As of December 16, the net long positions for various metals show a mixed trend: gold's net long positions increased by 7.6%, while silver's decreased by 13.2% [4][8]. - The net long positions for platinum increased by 11.9%, while copper's net positions turned positive after being negative for a long time [11][14]. - The article highlights that the sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, as short positions have reached their lowest level since 2007, suggesting a potential market correction [2][17]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a near 50% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026, with expectations of further cuts in April [22][29]. - There is speculation that the Fed may begin raising rates again in 2027, which could impact the ongoing commodity bull market [3][29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's actions and the potential implications for asset prices, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures [30][29]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should be cautious in the first half of 2026 due to expected price volatility and the need for careful leverage management [2][29]. - It also mentions that the gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has remained stable, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices over the past few years [20][21]. - The article advises tracking overseas mining stock prices as a forward-looking tool to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements in gold [21][29].