Commodity Bull Market
Search documents
LSEG跟“宗” | 银价急起直追黄金 12月降息后投资市场会如何部署?
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-10 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, in light of recent CFTC data and the potential for interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and CFTC Data - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions was only updated until October 28, showing a significant increase in both gold and silver net long positions, with gold up 14.7% and silver up 22.4% [2][6]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 80 to 72, marking the lowest level since August 2021, with a cumulative decline of 20.7% this year [2][21]. - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising to nearly 90% [2][24]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to consider their strategies for the period between potential rate cuts in December and April, as the market anticipates a 50% chance of another cut in April [2][26]. - The article suggests that if Trump were to regain influence over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to further rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices [26][29]. - The current market dynamics indicate a strong demand for physical gold, which may not be fully reflected in futures market positions, suggesting a potential for price increases [16][30]. Group 3: Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, net long positions in gold futures have decreased by 42%, while silver has seen a 35% increase [7][8]. - Platinum and copper have also shown significant changes, with copper net positions turning positive for the first time this year [10][13]. - The article highlights that the gold price has remained high despite a reduction in long positions, indicating strong physical demand [16][19]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and potential stagflation, which typically favors investments in commodities [29][30]. - The relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices is emphasized, suggesting that a decline in rates could lead to higher gold prices, especially if inflation persists [30][32].
Silver Shortage Supports Rally, Technicals Point To Further Gains - abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (ARCA:GLTR), StreetTRACKS Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD)
Benzinga· 2025-11-28 11:59
Silver is beginning to outshine gold. After nearly two years of steady gains, the metal has started to outperform its more celebrated counterpart significantly. It is a signal that the second phase of the commodity bull market might be taking shape.Spot silver surged over 85% in 2025, climbing from under $30 per ounce to over $54 through October.Spot silver vs spot gold, year-to-date, Source: TradingView Kitco reported that, per consultancy firm Metal Focus, it is a combination of tight inventories, persist ...
Jeff Currie Sees Gold Bull Market Broadening Through Commodities
Youtube· 2025-11-11 12:31
Core Insights - The current energy constraints are impacting various sectors, particularly data centers and the commodity market, with significant implications for supply and investment [1][6][9] - A broad bull market in commodities is emerging, with notable increases in prices for gold, base metals, and agricultural products, while crude oil remains a laggard [2][11] - The overall commodity complex has seen a 25% increase this year, indicating physical supply constraints that are affecting market dynamics [3][11] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a resurgence, with copper prices nearing $11,000 per tonne, which may stimulate new projects, although there is a lack of available projects even at higher price levels [8][14] - Investment in upstream oil projects is lacking, with no new major projects anticipated beyond March next year, leading to a potential supply deficit [5][6] - The focus on returning value to shareholders rather than overspending is creating a supply shortage in the commodity market [6][11] Investment Considerations - The current investment landscape is characterized by a shift towards raw materials and commodity equities, as these are expected to provide better returns amid rising prices [18][20] - The anticipated price for copper could reach $15,000 per tonne in the next 2 to 3 years, driven by demand and supply constraints [14][17] - The volatility of commodities presents both risks and opportunities, with direct ownership of commodities offering potential for short-term gains while equities provide long-term price exposure [19][20]
Risks Facing the Markets & Positioning Into End of 2025
Youtube· 2025-10-06 21:00
Core Insights - The financial markets are experiencing significant stress, reminiscent of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, particularly in private credit and business development companies [3][4][23] - There is a major shift occurring from financial assets to hard assets, driven by inflation and interest rate normalization, with a notable migration towards commodities like gold and copper [12][28] - The concentration of the S&P 500 is concerning, with the top two stocks comprising 15% of the index, which poses risks to investors' portfolios [7][8] Financial Sector - A major move in the financial sector is anticipated, with potential defaults in private credit and business development companies [4][23] - Internal market indicators show a breakdown in financials, particularly in subprime lending and student loans, indicating underlying weaknesses [22][23] - The current environment is characterized by complacency in the index, despite deteriorating internal market conditions [21][22] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider hard assets over growth stocks, as the latter are becoming increasingly risky due to market concentration and potential accounting issues [10][13] - The classic commodity bull market typically starts with gold, followed by silver, platinum, and other commodities, suggesting a strategic approach for investors [17] - There is a call for diversification into international equities and smaller market cap companies, which may offer better growth opportunities [47][48] Economic Trends - The reshoring of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is expected to lead to higher production costs, contributing to a sustained inflation regime [27][28] - The Fed's easing bias, despite a strong economy, is likely to weaken the dollar and drive capital towards emerging markets and value-centric global equities [30][32] - The current economic landscape is marked by a significant increase in the NASDAQ 100's market capitalization, indicating a potential shift back to value investments [10][32] Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector, particularly natural gas, is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with companies expected to benefit from the infrastructure needs of AI and other technologies [18][20] - Small-cap utilities are seen as attractive investments due to their potential for growth and dividend yields, with some being potential acquisition targets [41][62] - Companies involved in nuclear energy and power generation are positioned well for future growth, especially as demand for clean energy increases [66]
Trailbreaker Resources Provides Corporate Update
Thenewswire· 2025-09-15 11:45
Core Viewpoint - Trailbreaker Resources Ltd. is advancing multiple mining projects in British Columbia and Yukon Territory, focusing on gold, copper-gold, and copper-molybdenum exploration, with significant developments in the Atsutla Gold project, Liberty Cu-Mo project, and Coho Cu-Au property [1][15]. Project Summaries Atsutla Gold Project - The Atsutla Gold project is a high-grade gold discovery located 120 km northwest of Dease Lake, BC, featuring high-grade vein-hosted gold and a Cu-Au-Ag porphyry target called the Swan zone [3][6]. - Recent consolidation of key ground within the property has identified the Highlands zone, which has recorded gold grades up to 630 g/t Au in grab samples [3][5]. - The project is fully permitted for drilling, with plans for a first-pass exploration program and ground-truthing of drill collar locations [4][6]. Liberty Cu-Mo Project - The Liberty Cu-Mo porphyry project, located 60 km northwest of Quesnel, BC, has undergone significant advancement with a seven-hole diamond drilling program totaling 2,442 m in 2024 [7]. - The project area has expanded from 5,054 hectares to 9,453 hectares, and a phase 2 drill program is planned, although approval for the drill permit has been delayed due to additional required studies [8]. Coho Cu-Au Property - The Coho property, acquired in May 2025, is a Cu-Au porphyry target located 30 km west of the Mount Milligan mine, considered one of the more advanced projects in the portfolio [9]. - An aggressive drill program is planned, with a new application for a 5-year area-based permit that will include up to 50 drill sites [10][11]. Other Projects - The Wheaton Gold property, an orogenic gold prospect, was acquired in July 2025, and a surface exploration program is being mobilized for 2025 [12]. - The Castle Rock property on Vancouver Island has received a 5-year area-based drill permit, allowing for up to 40 drill sites and 40 line-km of ground geophysics [13]. - The company maintains a diverse portfolio of exploration projects across BC and Yukon, including properties like McMurdo, Eakin Creek, Eagle Lake, Sheldon, and Plateau [14].