Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data of US commercial crude oil inventory decline is favorable, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at the peak of the year, which makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.993 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels [2]. - In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2]. - US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year, with a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day. US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day, and crude oil processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3]. - The terminal apparent demand for US crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 314,250 barrels per day to 20.576 million barrels per day, while the apparent demand for gasoline (four - week smoothing) decreased by 180,250 barrels per day to 8.81375 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for distillate oil (four - week smoothing) decreased by 112,750 barrels per day to 3.61925 million barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, the decline of US commercial crude oil exceeded expectations. The continuous decline of weekly crude oil production, the high operating rate of downstream refineries (increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%), and the continuous rebound of weekly crude oil exports all contributed to the inventory decline. However, the increase in refinery operating rate was partly due to the withdrawal of refinery capacity last week, and the increase in US crude oil processing volume was only 87,000 barrels per day [4]. - In terms of refined oil, although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil decreased. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's gasoline demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the level of the 2020 COVID - 19 year, which may break the high operating rate of refineries through cracking conduction [6]. - Although the EIA report's surface data is favorable due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the weak terminal refined oil demand makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful. After the report was released, the oil price had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7].

Core Insights - After the release of EIA data, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices experienced minimal short-term fluctuations [1] Group 1 - The EIA data release had a limited impact on the short-term volatility of oil prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory reached its highest level since the week of October 14, 2022, as of the week ending June 27 [1] - The commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were at their highest since the week of December 27, 2024, for the week ending June 27 [1] - The crude oil export volume was the lowest since the week of July 7, 2023, for the week ending June 27 [1] Group 2 - The increase in EIA crude oil inventory recorded the largest growth since the week of March 28, 2025, for the week ending June 27 [1] - The domestic crude oil production saw its largest decline since the week of May 2, 2025, ending a previous streak of seven consecutive weeks of increases for the week ending June 27 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached its highest level since the week of October 14, 2022, as of the week ending June 20 [1] - The commercial crude oil inventory, excluding strategic reserves, hit its lowest level since January 17, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1] - The decline in EIA refined oil inventory recorded the largest drop since the week of January 31, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1] - Domestic crude oil production in the U.S. reached its highest level since the week of April 25, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EIA report for the week ending May 2 indicates a decrease in U.S. crude oil exports and domestic production, alongside changes in commercial crude oil inventories and strategic reserves, reflecting ongoing trends in the oil market. Group 1: Crude Oil Exports and Production - U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [1] - Domestic crude oil production fell by 98,000 barrels to 1.3367 million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Inventories - Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a decline of 0.46% [3] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.756 million barrels per day, down 0.55% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3: Strategic Petroleum Reserves - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 39.91 million barrels, an increase of 0.15% [5] - Crude oil imports, excluding strategic reserves, rose to 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 55,800 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6]