Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices exhibited a downward trend in late November, leading to a cautious market sentiment and low purchasing willingness among traders [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined oil trade companies' diesel inventory accounted for 29.93% of storage capacity, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from mid-November, but an increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The retail price of refined oil in China was adjusted downward on November 24, with the current cycle's crude oil change rate remaining in negative territory, contributing to a sustained cautious market sentiment [3] - Despite tight diesel spot resources in some regions, the overall demand for diesel did not show significant improvement due to lower temperatures and decreased logistics activity [3] Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The average theoretical profit for sales of local refined diesel was 1,223 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.24% from mid-November, while the theoretical profit for main diesel sales was 1,003 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.53% [5] - The theoretical profit for local refined gasoline was 2,026 CNY/ton, down 3.91% from mid-November, and for main gasoline sales, it was 1,863 CNY/ton, down 0.90% [5] - The narrowing price difference between wholesale and retail prices has not significantly boosted gasoline demand, which remains in the off-season, affecting sales at private gas stations [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term market expectations suggest that the potential for a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may pressure oil prices, while expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar could provide support for oil prices [5] - It is anticipated that international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in early December, with the ongoing negative crude oil change rate and fluctuating prices unlikely to boost the domestic refined oil market [6] - Diesel demand may be impacted by further decreases in temperatures and potential rain and snow in northern regions, leading to expectations of a continued decrease in diesel inventory levels [6]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, respectively, with an increase of $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 10 thousand barrels per day [1][2] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 418, which is an increase of 2 rigs from the previous week [1][2] - The number of active fracturing fleets in the U.S. is 169, with an increase of 5 fleets [1][2] Refined Oil Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 9.41 million, 4.96 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 8.81 million, 3.62 million, and 1.62 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [3] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 1.6 million, 0.97 million, and 0.81 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +0.07, -0.02, and -0.09 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.10 million, 0.85 million, and 0.76 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.12, -0.54, and -0.42 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.05 million, 0.24 million, and 0.18 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.07, +0.05, and +0.12 million barrels per day [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [4]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures was $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, reflecting a change of +$0.7 and -$0.2 from the previous week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and Cushing crude oil inventory were reported at 82 million, 42 million, 40 million, and 2 million barrels, with changes of -579, -601, +22, and +42 thousand barrels respectively [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of +60 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [2][3] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 411, down by 1 rig, while the active fracturing fleet was 167, down by 2 units [2][3] Refined Products Market - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1 respectively [3][4] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, with changes of -272, +234, and -45 thousand barrels respectively [3][4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 9.55 million, 5.33 million, and 1.96 million barrels per day, with changes of -26, +19, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] - Consumption levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 8.84 million, 3.97 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +27, and +7 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 0.9 million, 1.02 million, and 0.93 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +19, and +35 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.12 million, 1.15 million, and 1.03 million barrels per day, with changes of +2, -29, and -31 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.1 million, 0.22 million, and 0.12 million barrels per day, with changes of +7, -4, and -11 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data of US commercial crude oil inventory decline is favorable, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at the peak of the year, which makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.993 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels [2]. - In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2]. - US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year, with a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day. US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day, and crude oil processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3]. - The terminal apparent demand for US crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 314,250 barrels per day to 20.576 million barrels per day, while the apparent demand for gasoline (four - week smoothing) decreased by 180,250 barrels per day to 8.81375 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for distillate oil (four - week smoothing) decreased by 112,750 barrels per day to 3.61925 million barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, the decline of US commercial crude oil exceeded expectations. The continuous decline of weekly crude oil production, the high operating rate of downstream refineries (increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%), and the continuous rebound of weekly crude oil exports all contributed to the inventory decline. However, the increase in refinery operating rate was partly due to the withdrawal of refinery capacity last week, and the increase in US crude oil processing volume was only 87,000 barrels per day [4]. - In terms of refined oil, although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil decreased. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's gasoline demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the level of the 2020 COVID - 19 year, which may break the high operating rate of refineries through cracking conduction [6]. - Although the EIA report's surface data is favorable due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the weak terminal refined oil demand makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful. After the report was released, the oil price had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7].