原油库存骤降驱动短期利多 供需弱化延阻续涨动能 一、库存情况观点 EIA报告显示，截止08月15日当周美国商业原油库存超预期减少601.4万 桶，降幅1.41%，创三个月最大单周降幅，库欣库存增加41.9万桶但未突破 五年均值区间。炼厂开工率意外升至96.6%高位（预期95.7%），印证炼厂 加速赶工以完成夏季检修前任务。成品油净出口增至5211千桶/日创新高， 出口放量叠加加工量提升推动库存持续去库，但馏分油库存逆季节性回升 至116百万桶（+2.06%）反映柴油需求疲软。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 1/10 二、周度数据跟踪 | | 2025-08- | 2025-08- | 2025-08- | 2025-07- | 変化 | 变化率 | 走势 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15 | 08 | 01 | 25 | | | | | | WTI ...

Group 1: Report Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EIA report for the week is relatively bullish. The decline in inventory is due to the demand side, with overseas exports rebounding and refineries maintaining high operating rates, which may slow down the seasonal decline in demand. The structural issues in the diesel market are worth attention, as the demand for diesel will seasonally strengthen with the start of the autumn harvest while the distillate inventory is relatively low, which may make the previously slowing distillate cracking recover and drive refinery demand [8]. Group 3: Summary of Key Data - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014 thousand barrels to 420684 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1800 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 419 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 223 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2720 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900 thousand barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 2343 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 900 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 1218 thousand barrels per day to 2125 thousand barrels per day, and the single - week export volume reached 4372 thousand barrels per day, a new high since April [3][4]. - The refinery operating rate increased by 0.2% to 96.6% [4]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 66 thousand barrels per day to 21093 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 31.25 thousand barrels per day to 9008.5 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 156 thousand barrels per day to 3748.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 54.25 thousand barrels per day to 1881.5 thousand barrels per day [3]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was due to a sharp drop in net imports caused by a surge in exports, indicating an improvement in previously weak overseas demand, and the high - level refinery operating rate [4]. - Gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumer ability or willingness. Distillate demand has rebounded significantly, and its inventory is still at a low level. As autumn approaches, the market will focus more on distillates [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].

EIA周度报告点评 主要数据一览: 截止8月8日，美国商业原油总库存为42669.8万桶，环比增加303.6万桶，，与预期的减少27.5万桶相反，交割地库欣库存增加4.5万桶。战略储备 库存增加22.6万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少79.2万桶，与预期的减少70万桶相符，馏分油库存增加71.4万桶，与预期的增加70万桶相符。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 8月1日 | 8月8日 | 型化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 423662 | 426698 | 3036 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 23006 | 23051 | 45 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402976 | 403202 | 226 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 227082 | 226290 | -792 ~ | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 112971 | 113685 | 714 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1662801 | 1670549 | 7748 | | | 美国原油产量 | 13284 | 13327 | 43 | | | 美国原油 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report from Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd. dated August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - OPEC raised the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day and slightly increased the 2025 global economic growth rate to 3.0% due to global economic resilience [1] - EIA is more cautious about demand and prices, predicting lower global daily demand in 2025 and 2026 than OPEC and lowering Brent oil price forecasts [1] - IEA expects a record - high oil supply surplus next year, and with OPEC + gradually increasing production, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory as of August 8, 2025, was 426,698 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,036 thousand barrels (0.72%) from August 1 [2] - Cushing crude oil inventory was 23,051 thousand barrels, an increase of 45 thousand barrels (0.20%) [2] - US gasoline inventory was 226,290 thousand barrels, a decrease of 792 thousand barrels (- 0.35%) [2] - US distillate oil inventory was 113,685 thousand barrels, an increase of 714 thousand barrels (0.63%) [2] - US total oil product inventory was 1,267,347 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,522 thousand barrels (0.60%) [2] - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 403,202 thousand barrels, an increase of 226 thousand barrels (0.06%) [2] Production and Trade Data - US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (- 0.52%) [2] - US crude oil production was 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day (0.32%) [2] - US crude oil imports were 6,920 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 958 thousand barrels per day (16.07%) [2] - US crude oil exports were 3,577 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 259 thousand barrels per day (7.81%) [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the EIA weekly data of the US oil market as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Main Data Highlights - US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory declined more than expected. Refinery operating rate reached a new high of 96.9% this year, up 1.5%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume was not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity from 18.347 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 18.089 million barrels per day. Export growth also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - Gasoline demand remained persistently low, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. Compared with previous years, this year's gasoline demand was only better than that in 2020 and 2022, indicating that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets. Distillate demand was stable, and the slight inventory decline was mainly due to increased exports [6] - This week's EIA report seemed bullish as crude oil and major refined product inventories declined. However, the gasoline apparent demand below 9 million barrels per day during the peak season weakened the positive impact. Overall, the US gasoline consumption market this year was disappointing compared with previous years at similar price levels. After the data release, oil prices were initially stable and then declined due to news of potential US - Russia - third - country leader talks [8]

Report Overview - The report is an EIA weekly data report released on August 7, 2025, focusing on the oil market in the United States [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The gasoline demand remains persistently low during the peak season, and the US gasoline consumption market this year is disappointing compared to previous years [1][6][8] - The EIA report seems bullish on the surface as both crude oil and major refined oil inventories have declined, but the weak gasoline demand undermines the positive impact [8] 3. Summary by Key Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of August 1, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. The Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and the strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] Refined Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate oil inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day. Jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate oil apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] 4. Report Comments Crude Oil - Last week, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The refinery utilization rate reached a new high this year, rising 1.5% to 96.9%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume is not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity. In addition, increased exports also contributed to the inventory decline [4] Refined Oil - Gasoline demand is continuously weak, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. This indicates that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets this year. Distillate oil demand is stable, and the slight decrease in inventory is mainly due to increased exports [6] 5. Market Reaction - After the data release, oil prices remained stable initially and then declined as Trump announced productive US - Russia talks and the possibility of a face - to - face meeting among the three leaders as early as next week, leading to a retreat in risk premiums [8]

主要数据一览: 截止8月1日，美国商业原油总库存为42366.2万桶，环比下降302.9万桶，超过预期的减少60万桶，交割地库欣库存增加45.3万桶。战略储备库存 增加23.5万桶。 EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-07 09:52:10 摘要:汽油需求在旺季中持续性低迷 EIA周良 脂点评 成品油方面，汽油库存减少132.3万桶，超过预期的减少40万桶，馏分油库存减少56.5万桶，与预期的增加80万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 7月25日 | 8月1日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426691 | 423662 | -3029 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22553 | 23006 | 453 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402741 | 402976 | ટર્ક | | | 美国汽油库存 | 228405 | 227082 | -1323 - | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 113536 | 112971 | -262 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1660512 | 1662801 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report is slightly bearish on the oil market [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The large increase in US commercial crude oil inventories was mainly due to import - export disturbances, with high domestic refinery operating rates but weak overseas demand [4][8] - Gasoline demand this year has been disappointing, reflecting concerning macro - economic implications despite low retail prices [6][8] - The continuous increase in distillate inventories is beneficial for alleviating the strong distillate cracking situation but is not good news for oil prices [6][8] - Recent oil prices have remained strong due to factors such as Trump's ultimatum to Russia, smooth trade negotiations, and better - than - expected Q2 economic data, and the EIA report cannot reverse the positive market sentiment [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 25, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,691 thousand barrels, a sharp increase of 7,698 thousand barrels from the previous week, contrary to the expected decrease of 1,100 thousand barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels; strategic reserve inventory increased by 238 thousand barrels [2][3] Product Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2,724 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600 thousand barrels; distillate inventory increased by 3,635 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 300 thousand barrels [2][3] Production and Consumption - US crude oil production increased by 41 thousand barrels per day to 13,314 thousand barrels per day; net imports increased by 1,317 thousand barrels per day to 3,438 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 25 thousand barrels per day to 16,911 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 225 thousand barrels per day to 20,801 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 128 thousand barrels per day to 8,941.75 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 109.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,509.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 89.75 thousand barrels per day to 1,831.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Refinery and Demand - The refinery operating rate decreased 0.1% to 95.4% [4] - Total terminal demand for refined oil increased slightly by 1%, but gasoline demand was still lower than last year and the 5 - year average affected by the COVID - 19 period [6]

Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.539 million barrels for the week ending July 25, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [1] - The previous week saw a decrease of 577,000 barrels in crude oil inventories [1] - API's Cushing crude oil inventory rose by 465,000 barrels, compared to a previous increase of 314,000 barrels [1] Inventory Changes - API gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels, compared to a prior decrease of 1.228 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.189 million barrels, up from a previous increase of 3.48 million barrels [1]