邓正红软实力表示，美国发出对俄罗斯采取更强硬措施以促成乌克兰和平协议的信号，并且还宣布封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，受此影响，石油软实力出现反弹 式上行，12月17日（周三）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶涨0.67元至55.94美元，涨幅1.21%；伦 敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.76美元至59.68美元，涨幅1.29%。 美国准备在俄罗斯总统普京拒绝俄乌和平协议的情况下，对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一轮制裁。美国正在考虑多种选项，例如针对运输俄罗斯原油的所谓"影 子油轮船队"的船只，以及便利相关交易的贸易商等。美国总统特朗普表示已下令全面封锁所有受制裁油轮进出委内瑞拉，还说委内瑞拉已被南美历史上规 模最大的舰队完全包围。 当地时间17日，委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计在约10天后达到最大储存上限。上周，委内瑞拉一艘油轮被扣押，再 加上美国计划封锁其他受制裁船只，导致委内瑞拉石油储存能力日益紧张。委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）在周日因网络攻击暂停码头作业后，周三恢 复原油和燃料的船货装载，但由于美国威胁将依据制裁对油轮进行 ...

Group 1: Crude Oil Supply - Crude oil production slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13,843,000 barrels per day, maintaining historical highs with stable production levels [5] - The number of active oil rigs increased by 1, indicating limited new capacity growth [5] - Crude oil exports surged by 655,000 barrels per day, while imports saw a slight decline, leading to a significant narrowing of net imports [5] Group 2: Crude Oil Demand - U.S. crude oil demand showed a slight decline but remains significantly above historical averages, with refinery processing volumes increasing moderately [10][52] - Overall demand on the consumption side is maintaining stability, reflecting a resilient market despite minor fluctuations [10][52] Group 3: Crude Oil Inventory - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1,274,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 4,808,000 barrels, indicating a mixed inventory trend [31] - The Cushing region saw a drawdown of 742,000 barrels, while the PADD3 demand area experienced a reduction of 1,090,000 barrels [54] Group 4: Refined Oil Supply - Refinery utilization rates increased by 0.3% to 94.8%, remaining at historically high levels with stable operations [21] - Recent fluctuations in refinery maintenance levels are significantly above historical averages, but current maintenance scales are still low, suggesting high operational capacity in the near future [21] Group 5: Refined Oil Consumption - Refined oil demand showed a slight decline, with gasoline demand experiencing a minor increase while jet fuel demand decreased [65] - Industrial oil products, such as distillates, saw a decrease in demand, while propane and propylene demand remained stable [65] Group 6: Terminal Consumption - Highway travel mileage remains near historical highs, indicating strong logistics and travel demand, with TSA passenger numbers also showing a mild recovery trend [28][70] - Both metrics suggest resilient terminal consumption activity without significant signs of slowdown [28][70] Group 7: Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance - EIA data indicates that global oil supply is under pressure, with a recent adjustment reflecting a high supply output and limited demand response from the economy [35] - Anticipated improvements in supply-demand balance may occur next year as OPEC+ pauses production increases and major consuming countries' demand is expected to recover [35]

汽油库存增加639.7万桶，预估为增加204.3万桶； 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 原油产量增加3.8万桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 汽油库存增加639.7万桶，预估为增加204.3万桶； 馏分油库存增加250.2万桶，预估为增加115万桶； 库欣原油库存增加30.8万桶。 炼厂开工率上升0.4个百分点，预估为上升0.2个百分点； 原油进口量增加60.8万桶/日； 原油产量增加3.8万桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 馏分油库存增加250.2万桶，预估为增加115万桶； 库欣原油库存增加30.8万桶。 炼厂开工率上升0.4个百分点，预估为上升0.2个百分点； 原油进口量增加60.8万桶/日； ...

汽油库存增加451.8万桶，预估为增加100万桶； 馏分油库存增加205.9万桶，预估为增加93.4万桶； 库欣原油库存减少45.7万桶； 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 炼厂开工率上升1.8个百分点，预估为上升0.7个百分点； 原油进口减少45.5万桶/日； 原油产量增加1000桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 汽油库存增加451.8万桶，预估为增加100万桶； 馏分油库存增加205.9万桶，预估为增加93.4万桶； 库欣原油库存减少45.7万桶； 炼厂开工率上升1.8个百分点，预估为上升0.7个百分点； 原油进口减少45.5万桶/日； 原油产量增加1000桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Core Insights - Venezuela is poised to become a significant player in the oil market due to the potential for U.S. military action, given its status as the country with the largest proven oil reserves globally [1] Group 1: Importance of Venezuelan Oil - Venezuelan heavy crude oil is crucial for many U.S. refineries, with nearly 70% of U.S. refining capacity operating most efficiently when processing heavy crude [2] - The historical significance of Venezuela in the global oil market is underscored by its status as a founding member of OPEC and its vast oil reserves [2] - U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude, which is characterized as "cheap, abundant, and capable of producing significant amounts of diesel and fuel for heavy manufacturing" [2] Group 2: Current Production and Export Dynamics - Venezuelan oil production is projected to rise slightly from approximately 867,000 barrels per day in 2024 to about 945,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, although this represents a 70% decline from five years ago when production was estimated at 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - Chevron has recently obtained new drilling permits in Venezuela, indicating that about 20% of Venezuelan oil exports are now directed towards the U.S. [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The renewed focus on U.S.-Venezuela tensions, particularly following reports of potential U.S. military action, could have implications for the Venezuelan oil industry, potentially leading to increased investment if the situation stabilizes [5] - Any disruption in global oil flows could be exacerbated by ongoing sanctions against Russia, which may lead to a global supply shortage, particularly as demand rises [6] - Analysts suggest that U.S. military action could increase geopolitical risk premiums, potentially raising oil prices by $1 to $2 per barrel, despite Venezuela not being a major oil exporter [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. oil production to reach a new high this year, exceeding previous expectations, and warns that an oil supply surplus in the coming months will put pressure on oil prices. The agency has also raised its global oil production forecast due to higher - than - expected non - OPEC oil production growth this year and next [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Inventory Data - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 827.246 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventory was 219.093 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventory was 121.559 million barrels, a decrease of 2.018 million barrels from the previous week [1][2] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 0.59% lower than the same period last year and 4% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory was 1.95% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the five - year average; distillate inventory was 2.57% higher than the same period last year and 6% lower than the five - year average [1] Other Operational Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, with a growth rate of 1.09% [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 124 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.92% [2] - U.S. crude oil imports were 6,403 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 570 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 9.77% [2] - U.S. crude oil exports were 3,590 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 161 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.29% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the deep-rooted crisis in the oil market, driven by three main challenges: declining employment confidence, the restructuring of clean energy rules, and ineffective geopolitical strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points reflects concerns over a slowing economy, with the U.S. job market showing signs of weakness [1][2]. - August's non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, indicating a significant drop in consumer employment confidence to its lowest level since 2013 [2]. Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1]. - The increase in distillate oil inventories, which exceeded market expectations, raises concerns about demand conditions and puts additional pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The article discusses a paradigm shift in the fossil energy system, suggesting that reliance on monetary policy and geopolitical maneuvering is insufficient to maintain traditional energy pricing structures [1][3]. - The rise of renewable energy, which now accounts for 42% of global power generation, is significantly impacting traditional energy values, with solar costs dropping to one-third of coal power [2][3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the oil sector are encouraged to transition from resource extraction to energy services, emphasizing collaboration between distillate oil and clean energy [3][4]. - A multi-dimensional evaluation system that includes carbon pricing, energy security, and geopolitical risks is recommended to better understand oil price fluctuations [3][4]. Group 5: Technological Innovations - The article suggests that breakthroughs in technology, such as hydrogen steelmaking, are essential for the commercialization of clean energy solutions [4]. - Companies can adopt models like Shell's "energy as a service" to integrate distributed energy sources and create closed-loop solutions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the oil market due to economic weakness in the U.S., highlighting a threefold dilemma in oil demand and the need for a new matrix of technology, rules, and ecology to address the crisis [1][2]. Economic Weakness - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points to stimulate the economy amid weak employment indicators [1][2]. - August's non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, indicating a decline in consumer employment confidence to its lowest level since 2013 [2]. Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of oversupply and weak fuel demand, exacerbated by a significant increase in distillate oil inventories [1]. Structural Changes in Energy - The article emphasizes that the current fluctuations in oil prices are symptomatic of a broader transformation in the fossil energy system, necessitating a shift from traditional energy pricing mechanisms to a new soft power matrix that includes technology standards and governance rules [1][3]. - The share of renewable energy in global power generation has reached 42%, with the cost of solar power dropping to one-third of coal power, indicating a systemic restructuring of traditional energy values [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with U.S. attempts to leverage energy pricing against Russia being undermined by fundamental supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. - Trump's comments on oil prices being a tool for geopolitical leverage highlight the risks of conflating energy resources with political strategies, which can disrupt market mechanisms [2]. Market Insights - The article suggests that a multi-dimensional assessment system incorporating carbon pricing, energy security, and geopolitical risks is essential for understanding oil price fluctuations, as traditional financial indicators are insufficient [3]. - Oil companies are encouraged to transition from resource extraction to energy services, emphasizing collaboration between distillate oil and clean energy [3][4]. Technological Innovations - The breakthrough for value innovation lies in technological coupling, such as hydrogen steelmaking, which requires advancements in high-pressure storage and transportation technologies [4]. - Companies can adopt models like Shell's "energy as a service" to integrate distributed energy sources and create closed-loop solutions [4].