Report Information - Report Name: EIA Crude Oil Weekly Data Report [1] - Company: Green Dahua Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: March 26, 2026 - Researcher: Wang Chen [1] -从业资格: F03104620 - 交易咨询资格: Z0021310 - Contact: wangchen@greendh.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total daily average demand for refined oil products in the US in the four weeks ending March 20 was 20.678 million barrels, 2.4% higher than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for motor gasoline was 8.796 million barrels, 0.9% lower than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for distillate oil was 392,000 barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for kerosene - type aviation fuel was 2.8% lower than the same period last year [2] - US crude oil inventories continued to accumulate more than expected, and the US released continuous negotiation signals, causing oil prices to fall below $100 per barrel. However, the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, and Iran has refused to negotiate [2] - The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for 26 days. With full storage tanks and blocked exports due to conflicts, Iraq's oil production has further declined, with the crude oil production in its southern oilfields dropping by about 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency analyzed that even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes passage, it may take six months for the Gulf's oil and gas supply to fully recover [2] - Pay attention to the military actions of the US, Israel, and Iran in the near future. If power facilities are involved or there are ground operations on Kharg Island, oil prices may rise significantly; if it remains at the stage of verbal confrontation, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a support level below $95 per barrel. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [2] Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 456,185 thousand barrels, an increase of 6,926 thousand barrels (1.54%) from March 13 [3] - Cushing crude oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 30,945 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,421 thousand barrels (12.43%) from March 13 [3] - US gasoline inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 241,447 thousand barrels, a decrease of 2,593 thousand barrels (-1.06%) from March 13 [3] - US distillate oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 119,936 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,032 thousand barrels (2.59%) from March 13 [3] - US total oil product inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 1,275,705 thousand barrels, an increase of 8,334 thousand barrels (0.66%) from March 13 [3] - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 415,442 thousand barrels, unchanged from March 13 [3] Production and Trade Data - US refinery utilization rate as of March 20, 2026, was 92.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points (1.64%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil production as of March 20, 2026, was 13,657 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 11 thousand barrels per day (-0.08%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil imports as of March 20, 2026, were 6,464 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 730 thousand barrels per day (-10.15%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil exports as of March 20, 2026, were 3,322 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 1,576 thousand barrels per day (-32.18%) from March 13 [3]

Core Insights - The EIA inventory report indicates significant changes in oil and gasoline stocks, with gasoline inventories decreasing less than expected and distillate inventories increasing contrary to expectations [1] Inventory Changes - Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, while a decrease of 1.5 million barrels was anticipated [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 252,000 barrels, against an expected decrease of 200,000 barrels [1] - Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 881,000 barrels [1] Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rate fell by 2.4 percentage points, while an increase of 0.5 percentage points was expected [1] - Crude oil processing at refineries decreased by 416,000 barrels per day [1] Crude Oil Supply - Crude oil imports rose by 135,000 barrels per day [1] - Crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant reduction in both crude oil and refined product inventories, indicating a relief in inventory pressure in the U.S. oil market [1] Group 1: Crude Oil Inventory - As of last week, U.S. API crude oil inventory decreased by 609,000 barrels, contrasting sharply with a substantial increase of 13.4 million barrels in the previous week [1] - Crude oil inventory in the Cushing region fell by 1.367 million barrels, compared to an increase of 1.4 million barrels previously [1] Group 2: Refined Product Inventory - Gasoline inventory saw a reduction of 312,000 barrels, while the previous week recorded an increase of 330,000 barrels [1] - Distillate fuel inventory, which includes diesel, decreased by 1.567 million barrels, compared to a reduction of 2 million barrels in the prior week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Due to the decline in US crude oil inventories and the repeated situation between the US and Iran, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil has increased. The US announced a trade agreement with India, reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, and India agreed to lower trade barriers and stop buying Russian oil. However, there are transition periods and uncertainties in the operation of "immediately stopping purchases". Before the US-Iran negotiation, there are still signs of repetition. Geopolitics is the key to affecting the short-term oil price direction. Before a conclusion is reached on the US-Iran situation, it is expected that the short-term price will show an upward trend in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the US-Iran negotiation on Friday [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Commercial Crude Oil Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 420.299 million barrels, a decrease of 3.455 million barrels (-0.82%) from the previous week [1][2]. US Cushing Crude Oil Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US Cushing crude oil inventory was 24.042 million barrels, a decrease of 743,000 barrels (-3.00%) from the previous week [2]. US Gasoline Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US gasoline inventory was 257.898 million barrels, an increase of 684,000 barrels (0.27%) from the previous week [1][2]. US Distillate Oil Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US distillate oil inventory was 127.368 million barrels, a decrease of 5.553 million barrels (-4.18%) from the previous week [1][2]. US Total Oil Product Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US total oil product inventory was 1.275572 billion barrels, a decrease of 25.28 million barrels (-1.94%) from the previous week [2]. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 415.213 million barrels, an increase of 214,000 barrels (0.05%) from the previous week [2]. US Refinery Utilization Rate - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US refinery utilization rate was 90.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points (-0.44%) from the previous week [2]. US Crude Oil Production - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels per day (-3.51%) from the previous week [2]. US Crude Oil Imports - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US crude oil imports were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day (9.91%) from the previous week [2]. US Crude Oil Exports - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the US crude oil exports were 4.047 million barrels per day, a decrease of 542,000 barrels per day (-11.81%) from the previous week [2].

Core Insights - The EIA inventory report indicates significant changes in oil and gasoline stocks, with gasoline inventories increasing less than expected and a notable decrease in distillate inventories [1] Group 1: Gasoline and Distillate Inventories - Gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, while the forecast was for an increase of 755,000 barrels [1] - Distillate inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, contrasting with the forecasted decrease of 1.081 million barrels [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Stocks and Production - Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [1] - Crude oil imports rose by 55,900 barrels per day [1] - Crude oil production fell by 48,100 barrels per day [1]

Market Overview - The recent oil market has experienced significant volatility, with prices showing both sharp increases and declines throughout the week, indicating a certain level of fragility in the current pricing environment [5][42] - Reports at the beginning of the year suggested that 2026 would be a year of oversupply, with fundamental price estimates around WTI $60 per barrel, but geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have introduced uncertainty [5][42] - The market reacted to news of potential Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily drove prices up before a pullback due to broader market conditions [5][42] Price Data - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up $4.81 (+7.3%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up $4.14 (+6.78%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.86 per barrel, up $4.05 (+6.35%) [6][43] - The price movements were influenced by increased liquidity in the market due to rising gold prices and heightened geopolitical risk premiums related to US-Iran tensions [9][43] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 2.295 million barrels; production slightly declined to 13.696 million barrels per day, while imports fell by 805,000 barrels per day and exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day, leading to a net import decrease [6][24][57] - Despite the decrease in supply, downstream refined product demand remains weak, particularly outside of gasoline, indicating a mixed outlook for the oil market [6][24][57] Terminal Demand - US highway transportation activity has shown typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volume and capacity following the peak season, indicating limited potential demand decline [30][62] - The overall transportation situation has stabilized, although winter weather poses short-term challenges [30][62] Domestic Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.4% to 90.90%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operations despite the slight decline [25][59] - The processing margins for major refineries were reported at 659.83 CNY per ton, while independent refineries saw a significant drop in profitability, down 34.75% from the previous week [35][59]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices have been declining, breaking through key levels of $4820, $4810, $4800, and $4790 per ounce, with a daily drop of 0.98% [1][6] - Spot gold has also fallen, losing the same key price points, with a daily decline of 0.86% [1][6] - Spot silver and New York silver futures are experiencing adjustments, with spot silver dropping below $93, $92, and $91 per ounce, showing a maximum daily decline of 3.74% [1][6] - New York silver futures have also fallen below the corresponding levels, with a maximum daily drop of 3.87% [1][6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. natural gas futures have seen a significant increase, with daily gains expanding from 3% to over 30%, currently reported at $5.083 per million British thermal units [2][7] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, along with a 6.2 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories, while distillate inventories decreased by 33,000 barrels [2][7] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - U.S. President Trump stated at the Davos Forum that he expects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, claiming that the current decline in the stock market is "insignificant" and that U.S. stocks will double in the future [3][8] - Trump revealed that the selection for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to two or three candidates, all of whom will be "male" [4][9] - Additionally, Trump mentioned that a framework agreement has been reached with NATO regarding cooperation on Greenland, which will cancel the tariffs originally set to take effect on February 1 [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The EIA inventory report indicates significant changes in U.S. oil and gasoline stocks, highlighting a notable increase in gasoline inventories and a decrease in crude oil production [1] Group 1: Gasoline and Distillate Stocks - Gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels, significantly higher than the forecasted increase of 2 million barrels [1] - Distillate oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 66,200 barrels [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Inventory and Production - Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [1] - Crude oil imports rose by 753,000 barrels per day [1] - Crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels per day [1]

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices increased on December 17, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising by $0.67 to $55.94 per barrel, a 1.21% increase, and Brent crude oil rising by $0.76 to $59.68 per barrel, a 1.29% increase [1] - The fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances, reflecting a complex interplay between sanctions and market conditions [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Sanctions on Russia and Venezuela - The U.S. is preparing to implement new sanctions on the Russian energy sector in response to President Putin's refusal to accept a peace agreement regarding Ukraine, targeting "shadow tanker fleets" and traders facilitating related transactions [1][3] - The U.S. has announced a complete blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, which has led to a significant tightening of Venezuela's oil storage capacity, expected to reach its maximum in about 10 days [2][4] Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - The U.S. sanctions are seen as a strategic move to reshape global energy flows, with implications for the pricing power of oil and the dynamics of energy trade [3][5] - The sanctions create a feedback mechanism with the ongoing negotiations for a peace agreement in Ukraine, illustrating the interplay between geopolitical strategy and market responses [3][4] Group 4: Inventory Reports and Market Reactions - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 1.274 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [2] - The market's reaction to the sanctions and inventory changes has led to increased risk premiums, affecting the pricing of oil, particularly from sanction-sensitive countries like Russia and Venezuela [4][5]

Group 1: Crude Oil Supply - Crude oil production slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13,843,000 barrels per day, maintaining historical highs with stable production levels [5] - The number of active oil rigs increased by 1, indicating limited new capacity growth [5] - Crude oil exports surged by 655,000 barrels per day, while imports saw a slight decline, leading to a significant narrowing of net imports [5] Group 2: Crude Oil Demand - U.S. crude oil demand showed a slight decline but remains significantly above historical averages, with refinery processing volumes increasing moderately [10][52] - Overall demand on the consumption side is maintaining stability, reflecting a resilient market despite minor fluctuations [10][52] Group 3: Crude Oil Inventory - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1,274,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 4,808,000 barrels, indicating a mixed inventory trend [31] - The Cushing region saw a drawdown of 742,000 barrels, while the PADD3 demand area experienced a reduction of 1,090,000 barrels [54] Group 4: Refined Oil Supply - Refinery utilization rates increased by 0.3% to 94.8%, remaining at historically high levels with stable operations [21] - Recent fluctuations in refinery maintenance levels are significantly above historical averages, but current maintenance scales are still low, suggesting high operational capacity in the near future [21] Group 5: Refined Oil Consumption - Refined oil demand showed a slight decline, with gasoline demand experiencing a minor increase while jet fuel demand decreased [65] - Industrial oil products, such as distillates, saw a decrease in demand, while propane and propylene demand remained stable [65] Group 6: Terminal Consumption - Highway travel mileage remains near historical highs, indicating strong logistics and travel demand, with TSA passenger numbers also showing a mild recovery trend [28][70] - Both metrics suggest resilient terminal consumption activity without significant signs of slowdown [28][70] Group 7: Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance - EIA data indicates that global oil supply is under pressure, with a recent adjustment reflecting a high supply output and limited demand response from the economy [35] - Anticipated improvements in supply-demand balance may occur next year as OPEC+ pauses production increases and major consuming countries' demand is expected to recover [35]