原油成品油早报 ·消息人士和航运数据显示，委内瑞拉正准备自3月起扩大原油出口规模。 ·Crea：1月份印度Jamnagar炼厂俄罗斯原油进口量下降 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/10 | 63.96 | 68.80 | 67.38 | 1.87 | 0.69 | -4.84 | 1.69 | 195.92 | 13.49 | 239.88 | 31.95 | | 2026/02/11 | 64.63 | 69.40 | 67.68 | - | 0.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off-season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage remains high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of supply surplus. The latest EIA January report has raised the expected supply surplus for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian Light crude oil to be shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, which currently has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman, have “temporarily” ended. The geopolitical risk in Iran remains highly uncertain. Iran has a large crude oil production capacity, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. Trump has announced that the so - called “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the US on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18% immediately. Modi has agreed that India will stop buying Russian oil and purchase more oil from the US, and may also buy oil from Venezuela. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The new round of talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US ended in the UAE on the 5th. Although a new round of prisoner exchanges was completed, no substantial progress was made on core issues such as territory and ceasefire. The geopolitical situation in Iran has repeatedly caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. With the current cold wave weakening, attention should be paid to the impact of the next cold wave. The production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field has recovered to 60% of its peak, and full production is expected to resume on February 23. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to a larger - than - expected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply surplus situation persists. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan oil transportation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have “temporarily” ended, and the geopolitical risk in Iran is uncertain. Trump has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its oil - purchasing sources. The Russia - Ukraine - US talks have not made substantial progress on core issues. The geopolitical situation in Iran causes oil price fluctuations. The cold wave is weakening, and attention should be paid to the next one. The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is expected to fully resume production on February 23, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 2.17% to 476.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 465.2 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 477.9 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1256 to 44,264 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 30 decreased by 3.455 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 489,000 barrels, and were 1.25% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.389 million barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 2.255 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - Side Situation - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of the winter storm, US crude oil production for the week ending January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared with the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher. Among them, the weekly gasoline production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared with the same period last year. The weekly diesel production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared with the same period last year. The rebound in diesel and other oil products has driven a 3.28% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current oil market is in a state of oversupply, but due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continue to decline. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress. The restoration of production at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been delayed. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Winter is the off-season for crude oil demand, but due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply. The latest EIA monthly report in January has raised the surplus range for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and Trump has announced a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may increase its crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE have not made substantial progress. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will resume half of its production capacity by February 7. The repeated Iranian geopolitical situation has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 0.37% to 465.4 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 454.4 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 470.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 5297 to 16308 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of January 16, US crude, gasoline, and diesel inventories all exceeded expectations, leading to a significant cooling of market sentiment after a rebound due to cold wave speculation in the previous two trading days. Supply - overhang pressure restricts the enthusiasm of capital chasing up prices. With geopolitical risks slightly easing, it is difficult for oil prices to break through the upside space, but geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents US Crude and Product Inventory Data - US commercial crude inventory increased by 3,602 thousand barrels (0.85%) to 426,049 thousand barrels as of January 16 compared to January 9 [1][2]. - Cushing crude inventory increased by 1,478 thousand barrels (6.27%) to 25,063 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline inventory increased by 5,977 thousand barrels (2.38%) to 256,990 thousand barrels [2]. - US distillate inventory increased by 3,348 thousand barrels (2.59%) to 132,592 thousand barrels [2]. - US total oil product inventory increased by 7,538 thousand barrels (0.58%) to 1,307,633 thousand barrels [2]. - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 806 thousand barrels (0.19%) to 414,484 thousand barrels [2]. US Refinery and Production - Related Data - US refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points (-2.10%) to 93.3% [2]. - US crude oil production decreased by 21 thousand barrels per day (-0.15%) to 13,732 thousand barrels per day [1][2]. - US crude oil imports decreased by 645 thousand barrels per day (-9.09%) to 6,447 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US crude oil exports decreased by 618 thousand barrels per day (-14.35%) to 3,688 thousand barrels per day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate due to a supply - surplus situation, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and uncertainties in global economic data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories have also risen significantly, leading to an overall increase in oil product inventories. US crude oil production has slightly decreased but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump has issued multiple warnings and policies, including threatening to increase tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit Russian oil purchases, and imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The US has not ruled out military action against Iran, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains [1] - The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US is low, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand due to the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1] - The EIA's January monthly report has raised the degree of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 0.69% to 446.6 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 443.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2948 to 39575 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - EIA data on January 14 showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 9 increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels), and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day. Its November 2025 production decreased by 1000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ November crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] US Crude Oil Product Supply - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel production have both increased month - on - month, driving a 9.27% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern, with prices in a weak and volatile state. Multiple factors such as OPEC+ production decisions, US production and inventory data, geopolitical situations in the Middle East and South America, and demand trends are influencing the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025, suspending production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1. During the off - peak demand season, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventories increased more than expected, leading to a continuous rise in overall oil inventories. US crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of US rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - Geopolitical events include the UK, France, and Ukraine signing an intention statement to send troops to Ukraine after the cease - fire, with US support. Trump warned to raise tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit Russian oil purchases. Reliance Industries said its refinery has not received Russian oil in the past three weeks and expects no deliveries in January [1]. - The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US is low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The market is still worried about crude oil demand. Middle East exports have increased, and global floating storage of crude oil is high [1]. - The global crude oil market showed signs of digesting the restricted Venezuelan oil exports before New Year's Day. The military action did not damage its key oil facilities, and its production accounts for less than 1% of global supply. The US government wants oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but the industry is cautious. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing oil transportation from Venezuela [1]. - The unrest in Iran has been escalating, with internet disruptions. Trump threatened "severe strikes" if there are more deaths. Iran has a large crude oil production, and its situation deserves attention [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2602 rose 3.52% to 432.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 419.3 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 433.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3139 to 29929 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA's monthly report adjusted up US crude oil production in Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also adjusted down global oil demand in Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - IEA adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also adjusted down the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and were 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels (expected: 3.186 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels (expected: 2.109 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 728,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its October 2025 crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production for the week ending January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 4.59% to 8.17 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.688 million barrels per day, 0.49% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 5.45% to 3.195 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.629 million barrels per day, 4.25% lower than the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 0.77% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion for the third quarter of 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 2.6 trillion, reflecting a recovery from the previous quarter [26] - Year-to-date investment reached nearly $4.2 billion, representing 72% of the annual target, fully aligned with the strategic roadmap [6][34] - Cumulative EBITDA for the year reached COP 36.7 trillion, demonstrating strong adaptability through a commercial strategy [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exploration and production segment achieved a total accumulated production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with the target range of 740,000-750,000 [11] - The midstream segment transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [13] - Refining operations reached approximately 429,000 barrels per day, marking the second highest quarterly level in the segment's history [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a competitive crude differential enabled by a proactive marketing strategy, capturing value in a low-price environment [5] - The average production for the last nine months was 751,000 barrels per day, placing the company near the top of its annual guidance range [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reinforcing core business operations, maintaining strict financial discipline, and advancing profitable projects driven by energy transition [3] - A multimodal logistics initiative was launched to export solid asphalt monthly, with projected annual benefits ranging from $1 million to $2 million [5] - The company is committed to sustainability, having reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of CO2 equivalent as of September [6][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience and discipline in a challenging environment marked by a nearly 15% decline in Brent prices year to date [25] - The company anticipates a more challenging price environment in 2026, focusing on strengthening resilience and competitiveness [35] - Management emphasized the importance of cost optimization, efficiency enhancement, and operational agility to meet financial objectives for 2025 [36] Other Important Information - The company achieved a significant reduction in lifting costs, with total unit costs in the hydrocarbons business line standing at $45.5 per barrel, reflecting a reduction of $1.8 compared to the same period last year [17] - The company has made significant progress in its sustainability agenda, being recognized by the Global Compact Network Colombia for best practices in sustainable development [8] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Clarification on the potential sale of the Permian asset - Management clarified that there is no interest in divesting the Permian asset, and any decision regarding the portfolio will be rigorously analyzed by the board of directors [37] Question: Risk of a senior management member being on the OFAC list - The company has a robust corporate governance and compliance system in place, continuously monitoring risks and ensuring operational compliance [38][39] Question: Impact of exchange rate fluctuations - Management indicated that a COP 100 variation in the exchange rate could impact net profit by COP 700 billion, with current rates contributing positively to net profit [42][43] Question: Assistance from the national government for the Sirius project - The company is working closely with the government and has established a timetable for consultations to facilitate the Sirius project [45] Question: Potential bond issuance plans - The company is currently working on its financial plan for 2026, which will determine the cash flow available for investments and financing needs [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current situation of the crude oil market is one of supply surplus. Considering factors such as the increase in supply, the end of the consumption peak season, and geopolitical tensions, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, combined with the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, has led to concerns about demand. However, due to the sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military stand - off between the U.S. and Venezuela, the export of Russian crude oil is expected to be restricted. The talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders were in line with market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.02% to 460.6 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 452.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 461.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,684 to 26,307 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects a global oil inventory increase of about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, and has adjusted up the U.S. crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also adjusted up the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel, but expects the price to drop to $59/barrel in Q4 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43/barrel. OPEC has adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted down the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, and adjusted up the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, exacerbating the oil supply surplus [3] EIA Data - On the evening of November 5, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 30,000 barrels. The EIA data indicated that the decline in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations, while the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations, resulting in a slight increase in overall oil product inventories [4] Supply and Demand Data - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in August 2025 was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand also decreased both weekly and on a four - week average basis [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

Group 1 - The "Vibrant China Research Tour" visited Danzhou Yangpu to explore the achievements in high-end manufacturing, international logistics, and international education, highlighting the development of Hainan Free Trade Port [1][10] - Hainan Oscar International Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. leverages the advantages of free trade port policies to engage in international grain and oil trade and establish a modern processing base, showcasing the effective transformation of policy benefits into tangible development [2] - Yangpu International Container Terminal is recognized as a core logistics hub of Hainan Free Trade Port, achieving significant results in policy implementation, efficiency enhancement, and global connectivity, thus injecting strong logistics momentum into the port's open development [5] Group 2 - Hainan Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences, the first independent foreign university in China, offers programs in computer science, economic engineering, and electronic information technology, aiming to cultivate high-quality technical talents to meet the needs of the free trade port [8] - The reporting from various central media highlights the breakthroughs in industry, logistics, and education in Danzhou Yangpu, presenting a vivid example of high-quality development in Hainan Free Trade Port [10] - Future reports will focus on the role of Yangpu Port shipping in the development process of Hainan Free Trade Port, emphasizing the importance of import and export trade [12]