Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion for the third quarter of 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 2.6 trillion, reflecting a recovery from the previous quarter [26] - Year-to-date investment reached nearly $4.2 billion, representing 72% of the annual target, fully aligned with the strategic roadmap [6][34] - Cumulative EBITDA for the year reached COP 36.7 trillion, demonstrating strong adaptability through a commercial strategy [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exploration and production segment achieved a total accumulated production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with the target range of 740,000-750,000 [11] - The midstream segment transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [13] - Refining operations reached approximately 429,000 barrels per day, marking the second highest quarterly level in the segment's history [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a competitive crude differential enabled by a proactive marketing strategy, capturing value in a low-price environment [5] - The average production for the last nine months was 751,000 barrels per day, placing the company near the top of its annual guidance range [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reinforcing core business operations, maintaining strict financial discipline, and advancing profitable projects driven by energy transition [3] - A multimodal logistics initiative was launched to export solid asphalt monthly, with projected annual benefits ranging from $1 million to $2 million [5] - The company is committed to sustainability, having reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of CO2 equivalent as of September [6][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience and discipline in a challenging environment marked by a nearly 15% decline in Brent prices year to date [25] - The company anticipates a more challenging price environment in 2026, focusing on strengthening resilience and competitiveness [35] - Management emphasized the importance of cost optimization, efficiency enhancement, and operational agility to meet financial objectives for 2025 [36] Other Important Information - The company achieved a significant reduction in lifting costs, with total unit costs in the hydrocarbons business line standing at $45.5 per barrel, reflecting a reduction of $1.8 compared to the same period last year [17] - The company has made significant progress in its sustainability agenda, being recognized by the Global Compact Network Colombia for best practices in sustainable development [8] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Clarification on the potential sale of the Permian asset - Management clarified that there is no interest in divesting the Permian asset, and any decision regarding the portfolio will be rigorously analyzed by the board of directors [37] Question: Risk of a senior management member being on the OFAC list - The company has a robust corporate governance and compliance system in place, continuously monitoring risks and ensuring operational compliance [38][39] Question: Impact of exchange rate fluctuations - Management indicated that a COP 100 variation in the exchange rate could impact net profit by COP 700 billion, with current rates contributing positively to net profit [42][43] Question: Assistance from the national government for the Sirius project - The company is working closely with the government and has established a timetable for consultations to facilitate the Sirius project [45] Question: Potential bond issuance plans - The company is currently working on its financial plan for 2026, which will determine the cash flow available for investments and financing needs [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current situation of the crude oil market is one of supply surplus. Considering factors such as the increase in supply, the end of the consumption peak season, and geopolitical tensions, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, combined with the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, has led to concerns about demand. However, due to the sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military stand - off between the U.S. and Venezuela, the export of Russian crude oil is expected to be restricted. The talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders were in line with market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.02% to 460.6 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 452.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 461.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,684 to 26,307 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects a global oil inventory increase of about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, and has adjusted up the U.S. crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also adjusted up the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel, but expects the price to drop to $59/barrel in Q4 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43/barrel. OPEC has adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted down the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, and adjusted up the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, exacerbating the oil supply surplus [3] EIA Data - On the evening of November 5, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 30,000 barrels. The EIA data indicated that the decline in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations, while the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations, resulting in a slight increase in overall oil product inventories [4] Supply and Demand Data - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in August 2025 was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand also decreased both weekly and on a four - week average basis [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

Group 1 - The "Vibrant China Research Tour" visited Danzhou Yangpu to explore the achievements in high-end manufacturing, international logistics, and international education, highlighting the development of Hainan Free Trade Port [1][10] - Hainan Oscar International Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. leverages the advantages of free trade port policies to engage in international grain and oil trade and establish a modern processing base, showcasing the effective transformation of policy benefits into tangible development [2] - Yangpu International Container Terminal is recognized as a core logistics hub of Hainan Free Trade Port, achieving significant results in policy implementation, efficiency enhancement, and global connectivity, thus injecting strong logistics momentum into the port's open development [5] Group 2 - Hainan Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences, the first independent foreign university in China, offers programs in computer science, economic engineering, and electronic information technology, aiming to cultivate high-quality technical talents to meet the needs of the free trade port [8] - The reporting from various central media highlights the breakthroughs in industry, logistics, and education in Danzhou Yangpu, presenting a vivid example of high-quality development in Hainan Free Trade Port [10] - Future reports will focus on the role of Yangpu Port shipping in the development process of Hainan Free Trade Port, emphasizing the importance of import and export trade [12]

【EIA周度数据揭示美国原油库存、产量及进出口情况】截至2025年9月12日当周，美国商业原油库存 减少928.5万桶至4.15亿桶，降幅为2025年6月13日当周以来最大，市场预期-85.7万桶，前值393.9万桶。 美国战略石油储备库存增加50.4万桶至4.057亿桶，达2022年10月7日当周以来最高。 EIA汽油库存减少 234.7万桶，前值145.8万桶；EIA精炼油库存增加404.6万桶，预期97.5万桶，前值471.5万桶。产量上， 美国国内原油产量减少1.3万桶至1348.2万桶/日。 美国原油产品四周平均供应量为2067.1万桶/日，较去 年同期增加1.69%。进出口方面，美国除却战略储备的商业原油进口569.2万桶/日，较前一周减少57.9万 桶/日，为2025年6月13日当周以来最低。 美国原油出口增加253.2万桶/日至527.7万桶/日，为2023年12 月29日当周以来最高。截止9月18日上午10:19分，WTI原油现报63.41美元/桶，跌幅0.36%；布伦特原油 现报67.13美元/桶，跌幅0.42%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, marking the largest decline since June 13, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 0.857 million barrels and a previous value of 3.939 million barrels [1] - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 40.57 million barrels, the highest level since October 7, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, compared to a previous value of 1.458 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding expectations of 0.975 million barrels and a previous value of 4.715 million barrels [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day as of the week ending September 12, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.69% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since June 13, 2025 [1] - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 29, 2023 [1] Group 4 - As of September 18, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.41 per barrel, down 0.36%, while Brent crude was reported at $67.13 per barrel, down 0.42% [2]

Group 1 - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 2.031 million barrels [1] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory rose by 509,000 barrels to 40.47 million barrels, the highest level since October 14, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, marking the largest decline since the week ending April 25, 2025, and have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.282 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.47% compared to the same period last year [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, increased by 508,000 barrels per day to 6.742 million barrels per day [1] Group 3 - As of September 5, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.23 per barrel, down 0.17%, while Brent crude was at $66.74 per barrel, down 0.21% [3]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Russian Oil Dependency - India imports 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, meeting 35% of its total demand, saving over $10 billion annually due to lower prices compared to Middle Eastern oil [4] - The refining sector profits approximately $19 billion annually by selling refined oil to Europe, heavily relying on cheap Russian oil to maintain low production costs [4] - A 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. has increased transportation costs for Russian oil from $3 to $20 per barrel, erasing the price advantage [6] Group 2: Strategic Goals of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. aims to cut off military funding to Russia by pressuring India, which accounts for 37% of Russia's oil exports [6] - The U.S. is testing the loyalty of its allies, as seen in the G7 summit where European countries remained silent on sanctions against India [8] Group 3: India's Economic Dilemma - India faces a dilemma: continuing to purchase Russian oil risks U.S. tariffs, while stopping purchases could lead to skyrocketing inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) already at a three-year high of 6.2% [10] - The reliance on Russian military supplies complicates India's ability to retaliate against U.S. sanctions, as 86% of its weaponry is sourced from Russia [10] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Challenges - U.S. tariffs threaten India's burgeoning smartphone export sector, which has been growing at 90% annually, forcing companies like Apple to reassess their supply chains [11] - India's low self-sufficiency in industrial supply chains (31%) compared to China (73%) exacerbates its vulnerability to external pressures [13] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Struggles - The pharmaceutical industry, supplying 60% of global vaccines and 40% of generic drugs, is facing a crisis as U.S. tariffs have led to a 47% increase in insulin prices, causing significant order losses for Indian drug companies [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67 per barrel from $65 [1] - The net profit forecasts for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were increased by 16% and 10% to RMB 157 billion and RMB 160 billion respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares of China Petroleum was raised from HKD 6.8 to HKD 8, while the target price for A-shares was increased from RMB 9.5 to RMB 10, reflecting a 40% premium of A-shares over H-shares in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, energy prices continued to decline, with Chinese thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices dropping by 12% and 9% respectively, and Brent crude oil prices falling by 11% [1] - The apparent demand for Chinese thermal coal in the first five months of 2025 was 1.647 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while oil demand was 381 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Bank of America Securities expects the earnings of Chinese energy producers to decline quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 due to weak energy demand and falling prices [1] Group 3 - China Petroleum's Q2 2025 net profit is expected to be RMB 39.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% and a year-on-year decline of 7% [2] - The decline in net profit for China Petroleum is driven by lower realized oil prices, weak oil and gas demand, and lackluster downstream performance [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386) is expected to report a Q2 net profit of RMB 6.3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 55% and a year-on-year decline of 66% due to lower oil and gas prices and potential inventory losses affecting refining margins [2]