Group 1: Economic Impact of Russian Oil Dependency - India imports 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, meeting 35% of its total demand, saving over $10 billion annually due to lower prices compared to Middle Eastern oil [4] - The refining sector profits approximately $19 billion annually by selling refined oil to Europe, heavily relying on cheap Russian oil to maintain low production costs [4] - A 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. has increased transportation costs for Russian oil from $3 to $20 per barrel, erasing the price advantage [6] Group 2: Strategic Goals of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. aims to cut off military funding to Russia by pressuring India, which accounts for 37% of Russia's oil exports [6] - The U.S. is testing the loyalty of its allies, as seen in the G7 summit where European countries remained silent on sanctions against India [8] Group 3: India's Economic Dilemma - India faces a dilemma: continuing to purchase Russian oil risks U.S. tariffs, while stopping purchases could lead to skyrocketing inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) already at a three-year high of 6.2% [10] - The reliance on Russian military supplies complicates India's ability to retaliate against U.S. sanctions, as 86% of its weaponry is sourced from Russia [10] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Challenges - U.S. tariffs threaten India's burgeoning smartphone export sector, which has been growing at 90% annually, forcing companies like Apple to reassess their supply chains [11] - India's low self-sufficiency in industrial supply chains (31%) compared to China (73%) exacerbates its vulnerability to external pressures [13] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Struggles - The pharmaceutical industry, supplying 60% of global vaccines and 40% of generic drugs, is facing a crisis as U.S. tariffs have led to a 47% increase in insulin prices, causing significant order losses for Indian drug companies [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67 per barrel from $65 [1] - The net profit forecasts for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were increased by 16% and 10% to RMB 157 billion and RMB 160 billion respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares of China Petroleum was raised from HKD 6.8 to HKD 8, while the target price for A-shares was increased from RMB 9.5 to RMB 10, reflecting a 40% premium of A-shares over H-shares in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, energy prices continued to decline, with Chinese thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices dropping by 12% and 9% respectively, and Brent crude oil prices falling by 11% [1] - The apparent demand for Chinese thermal coal in the first five months of 2025 was 1.647 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while oil demand was 381 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Bank of America Securities expects the earnings of Chinese energy producers to decline quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 due to weak energy demand and falling prices [1] Group 3 - China Petroleum's Q2 2025 net profit is expected to be RMB 39.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% and a year-on-year decline of 7% [2] - The decline in net profit for China Petroleum is driven by lower realized oil prices, weak oil and gas demand, and lackluster downstream performance [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386) is expected to report a Q2 net profit of RMB 6.3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 55% and a year-on-year decline of 66% due to lower oil and gas prices and potential inventory losses affecting refining margins [2]

Core Insights - The China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo serves as a vital platform for companies to showcase innovations and deepen collaborations within the supply chain [1][2][3] - The expo emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and open global supply chain network, aligning with the strategic goals of companies like Louis Dreyfus [2][3] Company Overview - Louis Dreyfus Company, established in 1851 and headquartered in Rotterdam, operates across various sectors including coffee, cotton, grains, and logistics [1] - The company has been engaged in the Chinese market since 1973, being the first foreign wholly-owned trading company in agricultural products [1][6] Market Trends - There is a significant increase in demand for high-quality protein in China, with per capita meat consumption rising from 26.7 kg in 2017 to 39.8 kg in 2023 [4][5] - The growing middle class and diverse consumer preferences in China present new opportunities for companies to expand into higher value-added product areas [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - Louis Dreyfus is focusing on enhancing its core trading capabilities in China, particularly in corn trading and expanding feed protein production [4][5] - The company is investing in new processing facilities globally, including in Canada and Eastern Europe, to strengthen its supply chain resilience [4][5] Sustainability Efforts - The company is committed to sustainable agricultural practices, aiming for zero deforestation and zero conversion of primary vegetation in its supply chain by 2025 [9][10] - Louis Dreyfus has expanded its satellite monitoring to cover 80% of high-risk areas in its global supply chain to ensure responsible sourcing [9][10] Local Development - The establishment of the Qingdao Food Technology Industrial Center marks a significant milestone for Louis Dreyfus in enhancing its local operations and supporting the transformation of China's agricultural and food industry [8] - The center is expected to produce 1.5 million tons of feed protein, 370,000 tons of refined oil, and 15,000 tons of phospholipids annually [8] Collaboration and Innovation - The company is actively engaging with local partners to promote sustainable logistics and innovative agricultural practices, contributing to China's green economic transition [11] - Louis Dreyfus has set clear emission reduction targets, aiming for a 33.6% decrease in scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2022 levels [10][11]

Core Insights - The API refined oil inventory in the U.S. decreased by 3.458 million barrels for the week ending June 28, which was a larger decline than the expected decrease of 1.65 million barrels and the previous value of a decrease of 1.026 million barrels [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Changes** - The refined oil inventory saw a significant drop of 3.458 million barrels [1] - The expected decline was 1.65 million barrels, indicating a stronger than anticipated reduction in inventory levels [1] - The previous week's inventory change was a decrease of 1.026 million barrels, highlighting a notable shift in inventory trends [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached its highest level since the week of October 14, 2022, as of the week ending June 20 [1] - The commercial crude oil inventory, excluding strategic reserves, hit its lowest level since January 17, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1] - The decline in EIA refined oil inventory recorded the largest drop since the week of January 31, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1] - Domestic crude oil production in the U.S. reached its highest level since the week of April 25, 2025, for the week ending June 20 [1]

Group 1 - The Indian government has reduced the basic import tariffs on crude palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil from 20% to 10%, while maintaining a high tariff of 35.75% on refined oils [1][4] - This tariff adjustment aims to control the rising edible oil prices, which have increased by 12% year-on-year, causing a 5% rise in the price of 5-kilogram packs of cooking oil in supermarkets [4] - The reduction in tariffs is a response to the significant drop in edible oil stocks in India, from 2.92 million tons at the end of last year to 1.35 million tons in May this year [4] Group 2 - The widening tariff differential has led to a surge in processing profits for refineries, increasing from $30 per ton to $80 per ton, prompting refineries in Gujarat to ramp up production [4] - The export volume from Malaysia to India surged by 35% in June, while Indonesia has redirected palm oil intended for biodiesel to the market [4] - The frequent changes in tariff policies have created confusion among traders, with intermediaries in Nepal who profited from high tariffs last year now facing a shift in their business model [4]

Core Insights - The EIA reported a refined oil production of 100,000 barrels per day for the week ending May 23, a decrease from the previous value of 131,000 barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - The current refined oil production indicates a decline of approximately 23.6% compared to the prior week [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decrease in U.S. API refined oil inventories, with a reduction of 3.675 million barrels for the week ending May 9, compared to an expected increase of 0.372 million barrels and a previous value of 2.242 million barrels [1]