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宏观量化经济指数周报20250803:债券增值税或推动资金增配实体经济资产-20250803
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-03 10:36
Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is at 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[7] - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities recorded 6.49 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 18.6%, widening from June's 8.4%[6] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index as of August 3, 2025, is -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[10] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[12] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds, which may compress the yield spread of direct financing tools for the real economy[12] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points[15] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 27 is 66,611 units, a year-on-year increase of 1,244 units, with total retail sales for July at 1.445 million units, up 9.0% year-on-year[20] Export and Inflation Trends - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1,550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export shipping costs[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.55 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables is 4.42 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg[36]