2026年开年以来的行情可谓是十分火热 ， 即便近期主流宽基ETF大幅流出 ， 指数还是 " 稳稳当当 " ， 成交量持续维持高位 ， 当前市场到底 处于什么状态 ？ 正好近期同事分享了一篇市场指标的观测报告 ， 借此分享给大家 ， 以便各位从数据层面 ， 更客观地理解和判断市场的位置 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：投顾主理人张济民 来源：雪球 自2025年12月17日以来 ， A股连续录得17连阳 ， 并在随后开始冲击4200点大关 ， 市场成交额逐步提升 ， 历史性直逼4万亿 ， 叠加增量资 金预期充足 ， 投资者风险偏好显著提升 。 然而 ， 宽基指数ETF在进入1月以来加速流出 ， 过去一周沪深300ETF净流出规模更是超过900亿元 。 与此同时 ， 2026年1月14日 ， 经中国 证监会批准 ， 沪 、 深 、 北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例 ， 将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100% ， 引 发市场热议 。 大规模的宽基型ETF的快速流出 、 以及监管层的 " ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index rebounded last week, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains overall balanced and slightly loose, with a slight narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y [1][20] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Major index volatility has also risen, although most industry volatilities remain below the 40th historical percentile [1][27] - The trading heat in sectors such as light industry, textiles, retail, computing, construction materials, and financial real estate is notably high [1][30] Institutional Research - High research activity is observed in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, computing, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with real estate, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and telecommunications also seeing a rise in research activity [2] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. Sectors such as telecommunications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, electronics, non-bank financials, construction, media, food and beverage, and home appliances have all seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 have been raised, while the forecast for the SSE 50 has been adjusted both up and down [3][4] - In terms of investment style, mid-cap/small-cap growth and mid-cap value sectors have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts for 2025/2026, while large-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have seen downward adjustments [3][4] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares. The average daily trading volume and proportion of northbound trading have both increased significantly [5][6] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for northbound trading in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, electric utilities, computing, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals has risen, while it has fallen in sectors like home appliances, automobiles, electronics, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture [5][6] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has increased, with net purchases amounting to 22.546 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in non-ferrous metals, computing, non-bank financials, electric new energy, and electronics, while net sales were seen in food and beverage, transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate [4][6] - The financing purchase ratio has increased in sectors such as coal, textiles, agriculture, military, and transportation [4][6] Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in sectors like automobiles, TMT, home appliances, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing positions in oil and petrochemicals, electric utilities, real estate, coal, and construction [6][9] - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by individual ETFs, with significant net purchases in sectors like electronics, military, banking, coal, steel, and machinery, while net sales were observed in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, telecommunications, media, and computing [6][9]