Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly addressing the **deflationary trends** and economic growth challenges in China as of August 2025 [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Slowdown**: There was a sharper-than-expected growth dip in July, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.5% YoY** in Q3, down from **5.2% YoY** in Q2. This slowdown is attributed to a decline in infrastructure capital expenditure by **7.3 percentage points** and a drop in durable goods sales due to weather disruptions and a pause in consumption trade-in subsidies [2][3][7]. - **Future Projections**: While a mild rebound in year-over-year growth is anticipated for August, driven by fading weather disruptions and resumed trade-in subsidies, a further slowdown is expected in September due to the payback of export front-loading and a higher fiscal spending base [3][7]. - **Policy Measures**: Incremental policy moves are expected to provide a floor for the economy. The Chinese government is implementing a measured anti-involution push and accelerating consumption support, which is seen as a constructive response to the "3D" challenges facing the economy. A supplementary budget of **Rmb0.5-1 trillion** is anticipated to mitigate the growth slowdown [4][7]. Important Data Points - **July Activity Indicators**: - Industrial Production (IP) growth was **5.7%** in July, down from **6.8%** in June. - Manufacturing sector growth decreased to **6.2%** from **7.4%** in June. - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) showed a year-to-date growth of **1.6%**, with a year-over-year decline of **5.2%** in July [6]. - **Retail Sales**: Nominal retail sales growth was **3.7%** in July, down from **4.8%** in June, with auto sales declining by **1.5%** [6]. Other Noteworthy Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the **property sector**, which continues to face challenges, with sales down **7.2%** and new starts down **9.1%** in July [6]. - The analysis suggests that while the economic outlook remains cautious, the government's proactive measures could help stabilize the market narrative and support growth in the medium term [4][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite a 25 - 30pt increase in VNKRLEs year - to - date, the valuation is still undemanding with upside potential due to SZ Metro's support and Vanke's manageable offshore debt maturities, so the buy recommendation on VNKRLEs is maintained [8]. - The recommendation on YLLGSP is changed to neutral from buy because of its unappealing valuation, although Yanlord is still considered a survivor in the sector [10]. - China's macro - policy is shifting towards economic rebalancing, focusing on boosting household consumption and addressing supply - side competition. The policy implementation window may open in 4Q25, and it may positively impact bond yields, RMB exchange rates, and Chinese stocks [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, in KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 6 - 12bps after LG Energy signed a USD4.3bn battery supply contract with Tesla. In Chinese IGs, CNOOC/JD 39 - 50s long - end was 0.4 - 0.7pt lower. ZHOSHK 28 tightened 8bps. In financials, MIZUHO/SUMIBK Float 30 - 31s tightened 1bp. In insurance, NSINTW 34 and SHIKON 35 widened. Some AT1s and perpetual bonds rose. In HK, new bonds like LIFUNG 29 and LASUDE/LIHHK 26 increased. In Chinese properties, Yanlord repurchased USD46.65mn of YLLGSP, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased, and Vanke got a new loan from SZ Metro [1]. - This morning, LGENSO 27 - 35s widened 2 - 3bps, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 1bp, BBLTB 34 - 40s tightened 2 - 5bps. New CNH CB 30/35/55 were 0.1 - 0.3pt lower. VNKRLE 27 - 29s were 0.3 - 0.4pt lower [2]. Outside Properties - EHICAR 26/27 were up 0.4 - 1.2pts, 1.7 - 2.8pts higher week - to - date. In SE Asia, ADSEZ 27 - 31s were up 0.1 - 0.2pt, and other Adani complex bonds had a 0.1pt decrease to 0.2pt increase. VLLPM 29 lowered 0.8pt [3]. CNH Space - New CNH CCAMCL 29/30 were 0.2 - 0.6pts lower. New CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CHMEDA 30/35 closed 0.1 - 0.6pt lower. KCGZIG priced a 3yr CNH1.4bn bond at par. There were two - way interests in some CNH and USD new issues. SPICPD Perp was up 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 with a 2.5pt increase and EHICAR 7 09/21/26 with a 1.2pt increase. Top underperformers included JMUDIV 6.9 05/30/27 with a 1.3pt decrease and MTRC 5 1/4 04/01/55 with a 1.0pt decrease [5]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P was down 0.12%, Dow was down 0.38%, and Nasdaq was up 0.15%. The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. US Jul '25 ADP Non - farm employment was + 104k, higher than expected. US 2Q25 GDP was + 3.0% qoq, higher than expected. Trump mentioned a possible tariff on India, and UST yield was higher [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Vanke obtained a secured loan of up to RMB869mn from SZ Metro with a 2.34% funding cost. Cumulatively, SZ Metro has provided RMB22.7bn in loans, about 59% unsecured. VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 and VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 are trading at YTM of 13.8% and 11.6% respectively [8]. - Yanlord further repurchased USD46.65mn of YLLGSP 5 1/8 05/20/26, reducing the outstanding amount to USD379.66mn. It had previous repurchases in Apr '25 and early Jul '25. YLLGSP is trading at a YTM of 5.2% [10]. China Policy - The Politburo meeting signals a shift towards economic rebalancing, focusing on boosting consumption and reducing supply - side competition. China may boost consumption through multiple measures and address supply - side issues by eliminating local protectionism, etc. The policy implementation window may open in 4Q25 [14]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today. There is a pipeline issue from Chengdu & Europe Industrial Zone with a 3 - year tenor, a 7.3% pricing, and an unrated status [22][23]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 66 credit bonds were issued in onshore primary issuances with an amount of RMB38bn. Month - to - date, 2,033 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB2,110bn, a 12.8% yoy increase [25]. - There are various corporate news, such as Moody's outlook revision for AAC Technologies, HSBC's subsidiary NPL change, JD's acquisition plan, etc. [25].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the RMB or related assets Core Insights - The RMB is unlikely to appreciate significantly due to persistent deflationary pressures and the need for accommodative monetary policy [6][9] - Historical parallels between Japan's currency appreciation in the 1980s and the current situation in China are drawn, but the report argues that the RMB will not follow the same path [3][6] - Significant RMB appreciation would exacerbate deflation rather than alleviate it, and sustainable economic rebalancing requires more than just currency appreciation [6][10] Summary by Sections Currency Appreciation and Trade Tensions - Currency appreciation alone is insufficient to resolve complex trade tensions between the US and China, which involve multiple issues beyond currency [10][11] - Historical instances of RMB appreciation did not lead to a narrowing of China's trade surplus with the US [12][13] Deflationary Pressures - China is currently facing intense deflationary pressures, and significant currency appreciation would further harm corporate profits and aggregate demand [23][25] - The report highlights that exporters, particularly SMEs, would suffer from translation losses due to currency appreciation [24][25] Economic Rebalancing - Achieving sustainable economic rebalancing in China requires structural changes in growth models rather than just currency appreciation [41][42] - Policymakers in China prefer investment-driven growth, which complicates the shift towards consumption-led growth [41][42] Historical Context - Japan's experience with currency appreciation in the 1980s led to a loss of export competitiveness and did not result in sustainable economic rebalancing [32][46] - The report emphasizes that Japan's currency appreciation did not lead to a significant increase in private consumption as a share of GDP [54][53]