Vi e w p o i n t | 16 Feb 2026 03:28:05 ET │ 10 pages India Economics Trip Notes from Investor Meetings – Five Burning Topics CITI'S TAKE We met around 40 equity and fixed income investors in Singapore last week following important events like the union budget, RBI MPC and the trade deals with EU and US. In this note we cover the 5 most important debates/discussions we had during the trip. The topics ranged from understanding the strength of the economic recovery and its impact on core inflation to the imme ...

Economic Outlook for Germany - Germany is forecasted to experience minimal economic growth, with projections of 0.2% in Q1 2026 and 0.3% in Q2 2026, potentially increasing to 0.4% in the second half of 2026, leading to an annual growth of 0.8% in 2026, up from 0.3% in 2025 [2] - A revival in industrial output is deemed essential for Germany to overcome years of stagnation, with significant public spending on infrastructure and military contributing to this recovery [3][4] - The Ifo Institute's indicators are expected to show slight improvements, reflecting positive trends in purchasing manager surveys and indicating growth in Germany's manufacturing sector for the first time since 2022 [5][6] Inflation and Central Bank Insights - Upcoming releases will provide insights into Germany's economic performance, including consumer sentiment and unemployment data, which will help assess whether the economy is on the verge of a revival or still hindered by external factors [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing uncertainty regarding Christine Lagarde's tenure, which could impact Germany's economic strategy and the potential for a new ECB president [1][7] Global Economic Context - Inflation data from various regions, including Australia, the euro area, and Brazil, will be closely monitored, alongside GDP figures from India and Canada, as central banks in Korea and Thailand are expected to maintain steady interest rates [8] - The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's global trade duties may have implications for international trade dynamics, affecting economic outlooks in various countries [8][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating an expectation for inflation to decrease soon and for economic recovery to accelerate in the upcoming year [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its current interest rates during the latest monetary policy meeting [1] Economic Outlook - The central bank anticipates a retreat in inflation in the near future [1] - There is an expectation for economic recovery to gain momentum over the next year [1]

Summary of Hong Kong Economic Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic recovery and GDP growth forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: Hong Kong's economy showed a solid recovery in 4Q25 with a GDP growth of 3.8%, surpassing expectations driven by a surge in investments and improved consumption [1][3] 2. **Investment Surge**: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rose by 10.6% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the economic recovery [3] 3. **Consumption Improvement**: Consumption sentiment improved, supported by rising gold prices and equity market performance, with private consumption growing by 2.5% in 4Q25 [8] 4. **Net Trade Impact**: Net trade negatively impacted GDP growth due to higher imports outpacing exports, although service exports remained resilient [4][5] 5. **2026 GDP Forecast**: The real GDP forecast for 2026 has been raised to 3.2%, reflecting a more entrenched recovery across key sectors, including financial services and retail [1][5] 6. **Budget Support**: The upcoming FY2026/27 budget is expected to provide targeted support for lagging sectors, particularly SMEs and mass retailers, which are facing challenges [6][7] 7. **Weak Spots**: Identified weak spots include difficulties for SMEs in adapting to new trading behaviors, challenges for mass retailers due to competition, and risks associated with commercial real estate non-performing loans [7] Additional Important Content 1. **Fiscal Surplus**: The fiscal operating surplus for the first nine months of FY2025/26 was HK$43.9 billion, attributed to higher stamp duty revenues from equity transactions [6] 2. **Sectoral Outlook**: Positive outlooks for mass residential property prices and the Hang Seng Index, projected to reach 28,800 by mid-2026 and 30,000 by the end of 2026 [5] 3. **Consumer Behavior**: The report highlights the need for structural adjustments in sectors struggling with consumer behavior changes and digital transformation [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the economic outlook for Hong Kong, emphasizing growth drivers, challenges, and future forecasts.

European stocks closed on a somewhat mixed note on Thursday with investors mostly reacting to corporate earnings updates, and assessing trade news and geopolitical developments, in addition to digesting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement.The pan European Stoxx 600 ended down by 0.23%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 closed up by 0.17% and 0.06%, respectively, while Germany's DAX tumbled 2.07%. Switzerland's SMI climbed up 0.95%.Among other in Europe, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic ...

Company Overview - Cleveland-Cliffs stock experienced a nearly 10% increase this week after a downgrade led to a previous drop, indicating investor interest in the stock despite recent valuation concerns [1][2] - The current stock price is $14.01, with a market capitalization of $8.0 billion [3] Stock Performance - The stock has risen over 50% in the last six months, reflecting strong market performance prior to the downgrade [2] - The stock's 52-week range is between $5.63 and $16.70, showing significant volatility [4] Industry Context - The steel industry is benefiting from increased demand in infrastructure, construction, and automotive sectors, which is driving up prices and profit margins for domestic producers [4] - Anticipation of economic recovery, potential interest rate reductions, and robust government infrastructure investment are contributing to positive sentiment in the steel sector [4] Peer Comparison - Nucor, a domestic peer, has also seen its stock rise nearly 7% since the beginning of the year, indicating a broader trend in the steel industry [5] - The upcoming earnings season will be crucial to determine if the demand is benefiting all domestic steelmakers or if the gains are specific to certain companies [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. may soon lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to support oil sales, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that this could happen "as soon as next week" [1][4] - Bessent plans to meet with the heads of the IMF and World Bank to discuss renewed engagement with Venezuela, emphasizing the de-sanctioning of oil sales [1][4] - Approximately $5 billion in Venezuela's frozen IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) could be unlocked to aid the country's economic recovery, with Venezuela currently holding about 3.59 billion SDRs valued at roughly $4.9 billion [4] Group 2 - U.S. sanctions have historically restricted international financial dealings with Venezuela's government, and the potential sanctions relief is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to stabilize Venezuela and promote U.S. investment in its oil sector [7] - An executive order signed by President Trump blocks U.S. courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenues held in American Treasury accounts, stating that such actions would pose an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security and foreign policy [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has recently experienced a shift from a tech-driven rally to a more diversified performance across various sectors, indicating a potential long-term change in market leadership [2][6][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major stock indexes have been reaching record highs, reminiscent of the Chicago Bulls' dominance in the 1990s [1]. - A significant concentration of gains has been observed in seven leading tech companies, particularly Nvidia, which is noted as the most valuable company ever [2]. - Following the recent Federal Reserve meeting, stock performance has diversified, with contributions from various sectors rather than a single dominant area [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points, which has bolstered expectations for continued economic expansion [5]. - This shift in market leadership is crucial for the sustainability of the bull market, and the upcoming jobs report will serve as a critical indicator of economic health [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as materials, healthcare, and financials have seen significant gains since the Fed's rate-cut decision, while tech sectors have lagged behind [3][4]. - A strong labor market report could reinforce the economic recovery narrative, favoring cyclically linked sectors in the market [6]. - Conversely, a weak jobs report might still support stock performance due to increased likelihood of further rate cuts, potentially allowing tech stocks to regain their previous dominance [7].

Core Insights - Households are showing caution in spending, indicating a lack of confidence that could hinder economic recovery efforts in the bloc [1] Group 1 - The current consumer sentiment suggests that households remain wary of increasing their expenditures [1] - The bloc is relying on consumer spending to drive economic recovery, highlighting the importance of consumer confidence [1]

An infusion of fresh faces, ideas and energy could help pull the country out of its economic stupor https://t.co/dSpw6PdtGU ...