November 26, 2025 04:40 PM GMT M Foundation Asia Economics: From Tech to Non-tech – Recovery to broaden out Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Research Survey. Request your ballot For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. here. Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com Not for redistribution without ...

RT Skewga.hl (@skewga_hyper)If this was an inflationary bear market, I could agree with Ansem here, but Im confident it’s not. My current view is:-Crypto is pricing in economic deceleration due to government shutdown.-Bank reserves are below the safety threshold. US liquidity is stressed.-Economic data is bad and policy makers know it. They have to juice markets.In order to have an inflationary bear, policymakers must be willing to drain liquidity to fight inflation. The current situation looks the opposite ...

Core Insights - Coop Pank's financial performance in October 2025 reflects a stable interest rate environment and gradual economic recovery in Estonia, with a net profit of 2.2 million euros for the month and a year-to-date profit of 23.8 million euros, which is 16% lower than the previous year [6][7]. Financial Performance - The bank's loan portfolio increased by 15 million euros, reaching 2.03 billion euros, with home loans rising by 15 million euros and consumer financing increasing by 1 million euros [7]. - Customer deposits grew by 42 million euros, totaling 1.95 billion euros, with corporate deposits increasing by 31 million euros and private deposits by 1 million euros [7]. - The bank's return on equity was 11.6% in October, and the cost-to-income ratio stood at 55% [6][7]. Customer Growth - The number of clients increased by 1,700 in October, bringing the total to 224,000, while active clients rose by 1,400 to 106,800, marking a 10% growth in the customer base over the year [7][8]. Economic Context - Estonia's economy grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a positive trend in economic recovery [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained its base interest rates at 2%, contributing to a stable interest rate environment [1]. Innovations and Initiatives - Coop Pank introduced several payment changes in October, including instant payments processed within 10 seconds and enhanced security features [4]. - The bank launched a cashback loyalty program in June, refunding 1% of purchases made in Coop stores, which has attracted new customers [5].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Developments - Johnson & Johnson's investigational therapy nipocalimab shows promising results in reducing disease activity and severity in Sjögren's disease patients, as demonstrated in the Phase 2 DAHLIAS study published in The Lancet [2][6] - The therapy has received Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations from the FDA, indicating its potential to address significant unmet medical needs for approximately four million people affected by Sjögren's disease globally [2][6] Group 2: Global Supply Chain Issues - New Chinese export controls on rare earth elements are creating challenges for German manufacturers, requiring them to disclose sensitive supply chain information to Beijing, which raises concerns about economic leverage and vulnerabilities in high-tech and military supply chains [3][6] Group 3: Economic Policies in China - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement more supportive fiscal and monetary policies in 2025, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and reducing financing costs to stabilize the economy and promote development in real estate and capital markets [4][6] Group 4: UK-EU Relations - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's administration is reportedly advocating for a significant shift towards closer ties with the European Union, focusing on deeper relationships in security, defense, trade, and the economy, despite ruling out rejoining the single market or customs union [5][7] Group 5: Geopolitical Developments - Former President Donald Trump has imposed significant sanctions on Russia's major oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, to pressure for an end to the Ukraine war, while expressing hopes for de-escalation regarding Taiwan during potential trade talks with China [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon Athletica has experienced a significant decline in stock value, down 53% in 2025, contrasting with a 13.6% increase in the S&P 500 index, raising questions about potential stabilization and investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - Lululemon's stock has been one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year, indicating severe challenges for the company [1]. - The stock has shown signs of stabilization recently, with a 2% increase over the past month, suggesting some investor confidence despite ongoing uncertainties [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings multiple of 12 is significantly lower than historical averages, potentially making it an attractive buy for investors [10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Conditions - Economic conditions have led consumers to tighten their budgets, impacting discretionary spending, which is crucial for Lululemon's high-priced products [4][6]. - Other retailers, such as Walmart and Dollar General, are seeing shifts in consumer behavior, with high-income shoppers seeking discounts and lower-income consumers struggling to afford essentials [5][6]. - The overall trend indicates reduced demand for discretionary items, which could further affect Lululemon's sales [6]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Growth Prospects - In the most recent quarter ending August 3, Lululemon's comparable-store sales increased by only 1%, with a negative growth rate of 4% in the Americas [7]. - However, Lululemon experienced a 17% growth rate in China, highlighting the importance of international markets for future growth [8]. - The company faces challenges in sustaining growth, particularly if international markets are affected by trade wars and economic downturns [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors may need to adopt a wait-and-see approach as the company navigates through current economic challenges, with expectations for earnings growth remaining low [8][12]. - The potential for a turnaround in Lululemon's stock price hinges on improved economic conditions and stronger earnings growth, which may take years to materialize [12][16].

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expresses optimism for consumers, predicting price relief in the near future, particularly in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Bessent claims the affordability crisis is under control, attributing this to the reduction of inflation and declining energy prices, with expectations for consumer price index (CPI) numbers to decrease soon [2] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September consumer price index report, with economists expecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [2] - The University of Michigan survey indicates consumer sentiment remains steady at 55 for October, with inflation expectations for the next year slightly decreasing to 4.6% [5] - The second-quarter GDP growth rate was reported at an annualized 3.8%, with Bessent noting that tax policy changes have yet to fully impact the economy [6] Tax Policy and Consumer Impact - Bessent highlights tax policy changes, including no tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security, which are expected to benefit working Americans [7] - Substantial tax refunds for working Americans are anticipated in the first quarter of the following year, leading to real income increases [8] Budget Deficit Management - Bessent emphasizes the need to control spending and achieve nominal growth to improve the deficit-to-GDP ratio, which is currently at a concerning level [9]

Market Outlook & Economic Policy - The market experienced gains for five consecutive months, defying seasonal expectations, driven by positive policy and macroeconomic factors [1] - Deregulation, particularly in crypto, and tax policy changes, including full expensing of manufacturing structures for three years, are expected to stimulate economic activity [2][3] - The effective corporate tax rate in the US is projected to be roughly 10% for the next three years, among the lowest globally, potentially leading to a productivity-driven economic boom [4][5] - The industry anticipates a shift from a rolling recession to a recovery and then a productivity-driven boom [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The fund's performance historically wasn't inversely correlated with interest rates [7] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decrease, and a productivity-driven boom could lead to surprisingly low inflation, potentially below 2% next year [8][9] Investment Strategies & Crypto - A barbell strategy is observed, combining equities to capitalize on lower interest rates and gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty [12] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether and Circle, holding 90% of the market, are considered an important trade, providing access to the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem [14][15] - The company has exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, believing all three will play a significant role [18] - The company did not invest in Bitcoin debt, but did invest in Ether and Solana due to staking opportunities [19] ETF Dynamics & IPOs - Surges in share creations in the fund A1, ahead of IPOs like Klarna, are theorized as a strategy to gain exposure to IPO shares [23] - The company doesn't have the ability to reject trades from authorized participants, as market makers and authorized participants handle all the flows [27][28]

Core Insights - Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, is searching for a new deputy governor to replace Anna Breman, who has been appointed as the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after nearly six years in her role [1][2] Group 1: Current Challenges - The Riksbank is facing a policy challenge to reduce inflation from 3% to its target of 2% while supporting economic recovery after a prolonged downturn [2] - There are signs of dissent within the board, as member Anna Seim expressed reservations about the recent decision to lower rates to 1.75%, preferring to maintain the rate at 2% [2] Group 2: Potential Candidates - Mattias Persson, the current chief economist at Swedbank, is considered a strong candidate due to his background in financial stability at the Riksbank [4] - Kristin Magnusson Bernard, head of the Swedish pension fund AP1, is also a potential candidate, noted for her extensive experience and academic background [5][6] - Ann Oberg, the CEO of employers' organization Almega, is mentioned as another candidate with relevant experience in economics and finance [6] Group 3: Selection Process - The search for Breman's replacement will be conducted by the Riksbank's general council, which is appointed by parliament [7]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened lower, with the Russell 2000 down by 0.77%, Dow down by 0.39%, S&P 500 down by 0.13%, and Nasdaq slightly up by 0.01% [1] - All four major market indexes are down, with the Russell 2000 being the least affected at -0.15% and the Dow lagging at -0.44% [4] Commodity Prices - Gold reached a new record, trading above $3,750 per ounce [2] - Crude oil prices declined by 1.07%, settling at $62.01 [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.34 basis points to 4.125% [2] Analyst Updates - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 7,200, while RBC Capital set a new target of 7,100 [2] - Piper Sandler upgraded Tesla's price target from $400 to $500, reflecting the company's expansion into humanoid robotics [2] Corporate Actions - Pfizer announced plans to acquire weight loss drug company Metsera for $7.3 billion [2] - There are 12 earnings reports expected today, including those from Firefly Aerospace and PACS Group, although overall earnings activity is limited [7] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index recorded its highest level in five months at -0.12, indicating modest economic recovery in August [3] - U.S. businesses are advising foreign-born workers to remain in the country amid potential changes to the H-1B visa program, which may include a new $100,000 fee [3] Market Sentiment - The current week marks the last full trading week of the quarter, with bullish sentiment prevailing as stocks have reached new heights due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [5]

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