Photo by Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesLightRocket via Getty ImagesBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings stock (NYSE: BJ) is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on Friday, August 22, 2025. Analysts project earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $5.48 billion, indicating no change in earnings year-over-year and a 5% rise in sales compared to the previous year's $1.09 per share and $5.21 billion in revenue. Historically, BJ’s stock has increased after earnings announ ...

Group 1 - Electronic Arts (EA) is set to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.64 per share on sales of $1.23 billion, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $1.01 per share on sales of $1.26 billion [3][4] - Over the past twelve months, EA achieved $7.5 billion in revenue, with $1.6 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.1 billion, resulting in a current market cap of approximately $39 billion [4] - Historical data shows that EA stock tends to have positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 55% of cases, with a median one-day gain of 2.2% and the largest increase reaching 8.0% [2][6] Group 2 - There are 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns recorded, indicating a 55% occurrence of positive returns [6] - The percentage of positive one-day returns increases to 58% when analyzing data from the last three years [6] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 2.2%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -5.5% [6] Group 3 - Traders can utilize historical trends for event-driven strategies, either by positioning ahead of earnings announcements or analyzing post-earnings returns to guide future positioning [3][5] - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly [7][8]

Core Insights - JetBlue Airways is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with a historical trend of negative one-day returns post-earnings announcements, occurring in 80% of cases, with a median decline of -5.9% [2][3][7] - Analysts forecast a loss of $0.33 per share on revenues of $2.29 billion for the upcoming quarter, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $0.08 per share on revenues of $2.43 billion [3][4] - JetBlue's current market capitalization is approximately $1.5 billion, with total revenue of $9.2 billion over the past twelve months, but it has incurred operational losses of $110 million and a net loss of $287 million [4] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, JetBlue has recorded 20 earnings data points, with only 4 positive one-day returns, indicating a 20% success rate, which drops to 17% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the 4 positive returns is 2.7%, while the median of the 16 negative returns is -5.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities, while post-earnings analysis can help in understanding the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns [6][8] - Correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can guide trading strategies, particularly if strong correlations are identified [8][9]

Group 1 - Harley-Davidson is expected to report Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, 2025, with consensus forecasts indicating earnings of approximately $0.96 per share, down from $1.63 in the same quarter last year, and revenue expected to be around $1.1 billion, reflecting a nearly 19% year-over-year decrease [2] - The decline in earnings and revenue suggests a diminishing interest in Harley's high-end motorcycles, attributed to low consumer confidence amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty [2] - The company has retracted its full-year 2025 outlook due to uncertainties related to trade policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, while management emphasizes commitment to cost control and stricter inventory management [2] Group 2 - Harley-Davidson currently has a market capitalization of $3.0 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $4.8 billion, generating $314 million in operating profits and $354 million in net income [3] - Historical trends indicate that there have been 17 earnings data points over the past five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 65% occurrence of positive returns [5] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 7.8%, while the median of the 6 negative returns is -6.8% [5] Group 3 - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be effective, particularly if the correlation is strong [6] - The correlation between 1D and 5D returns can guide traders to position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [6] - The performance of peers can influence Harley-Davidson's stock reaction following earnings, with market adjustments potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [7]

Group 1 - Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) is expected to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on June 20, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $2.94 per share and revenue of $3.25 billion, reflecting a 14% increase in earnings and a 10% rise in sales year-over-year [2] - In the fiscal 2025 third quarter, Darden achieved total sales of $3.2 billion, a 6.2% increase, driven by acquisitions and new restaurant openings, including the positive impact from the purchase of Chuy's [3] - Same-restaurant sales improved by 0.7%, with LongHorn Steakhouse seeing a 2.6% increase, while Olive Garden had a modest growth of 0.6%, and the Fine Dining sector experienced a decline of 0.8% [3] Group 2 - Darden reaffirmed its annual revenue forecast of $12.1 billion and adjusted its earnings outlook to a range of $9.45 to $9.52 per share [3] - The company has a current market capitalization of $25 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months at $12 billion, operating profit at $1.4 billion, and net income at $1.1 billion [3] Group 3 - Historically, DRI stock has risen 55% of the time following earnings releases, with a median one-day increase of 5.8% and a maximum observed rise of 15% [2][5] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for DRI, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time, though this percentage drops to 42% when considering the last 3 years [5]

Group 1 - Casey's General Stores is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on June 9, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $1.95 per share and revenue of $3.95 billion, reflecting a 17% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 10% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - In the third quarter, Casey's reported an 11% year-over-year rise in EBITDA, with net income remaining unchanged but projected to have increased by 15% when excluding one-off expenses from a $1.1 billion acquisition [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $17 billion, with total revenue reaching $16 billion over the last twelve months, operational profits of $768 million, and net income of $535 million [3] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that Casey's stock has dipped 65% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 2.9% and a maximum drop of 7% [2] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Casey's, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 35% of the time [6] - The median of the 7 positive returns is 7.4%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -2.9% [6]

Group 1 - Bath & Body Works (BBWI) is expected to announce fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on May 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 47 cents per share and revenue of $1.42 billion, reflecting a 21% increase in earnings and a 3% rise in sales year-over-year [1] - In Q4 2024, BBWI reported a 4% decrease in net sales and an 18% decline in earnings per diluted share, attributing these results to a shifted fiscal calendar and reduced consumer demand [2] - The company faces challenges from U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, sluggish discretionary spending, and increased competition from lower-cost private-label options, alongside high interest rates and economic uncertainty affecting consumer interest in non-essential products [2] Group 2 - For 2025, BBWI's guidance indicates 1-3% sales growth and an EPS range of $3.25-$3.60, suggesting cautious optimism with modest growth compared to adjusted results from 2024 [2] - The current market capitalization of BBWI is $6.5 billion, with total revenue over the last twelve months at $7.3 billion, operational profits of $1.3 billion, and net income of $798 million [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that BBWI stock has increased 60% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 4.8% and a maximum recorded increase of 25% [1][5] - There are 20 documented earnings data points over the past five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, indicating positive returns occurred approximately 60% of the time [5]

Core Insights - Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is expected to announce earnings on May 28, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $2.55 per share and revenues of $9.75 billion, an increase from $2.44 per share and $9.13 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company's market capitalization stands at $262 billion, with a total revenue of $38 billion over the last twelve months, indicating strong operational profitability with operating profits of $7.7 billion and net income of $6.2 billion [3] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Salesforce's stock has shown a 50% chance of a positive one-day return post-earnings, with a median increase of 7.4%, while the other 50% resulted in a median decrease of 5.5% [5] - The historical data indicates that the correlation between one-day (1D) and five-day (5D) returns can guide traders in positioning themselves effectively after earnings announcements [4][5] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical probabilities to make informed decisions, either by taking positions before earnings announcements or by adjusting their positions based on immediate and medium-term returns after earnings are disclosed [2] - A less risky approach involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns, allowing traders to execute relevant trades based on the highest correlation observed [4] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Salesforce's stock reaction post-earnings, with historical data showing that peer stock returns can affect pricing even before earnings are announced [6]

Group 1 - Ross Stores is expected to announce fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 22, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $1.43 per share and revenue of $4.96 billion, reflecting a 3% decrease in earnings and a 2% increase in sales year-over-year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $51 billion and reported $21 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, resulting in an operating profit of $2.6 billion and net income of $2.1 billion [2] - Ross anticipates comparable store sales to be flat to a 3% decrease for the first quarter due to cautious macroeconomic conditions, with full-year EPS expected to be between $5.95 and $6.55, slightly down from $6.32 the previous year [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that Ross Stores' stock has risen 50% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day gain of 3.6% and a maximum increase of 10% [1][4] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 50% of the time, increasing to 73% when considering the last three years [6] - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can provide a less risky trading strategy, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [4][5]

Group 1 - Lowe's is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 21, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $2.89 per share and revenue of $21.03 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease in earnings and a 2% decline in sales year-over-year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $130 billion, with reported revenue of $84 billion, operating profit of $10 billion, and net income of $7 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Approximately 70% of Lowe's sales come from do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, whose demand has weakened, impacting the company's performance [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that Lowe's stock has risen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day gain of 1.7% and a maximum increase of 10% [1][5] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Lowe's, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time [5] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns post-earnings can provide a less risky trading strategy, especially if a strong correlation exists [3][4]