Group 1 - Roku is expected to announce earnings on October 30, 2025, with revenues projected at approximately $1.2 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, and earnings expected to be about $0.09 per share [2] - The growth is attributed to strong performance in Roku's platform operations, particularly in the advertising division, which has been expanding through enhanced integrations with third-party partners and the introduction of Roku Ads Manager [2] - Roku's acquisition of Frndly, a subscription-based streaming service, in May 2025, is also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [2] Group 2 - The company currently has a market capitalization of $14 billion, with past twelve months revenue of $4.4 billion, operational losses of $-156 million, and a net income of $-62 million [3] - Historical patterns indicate that event-driven traders may benefit from insights gained from past earnings results [3] Group 3 - In the last five years, Roku has documented 20 earnings data points, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 45% of the time [6] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -10% [6]

Core Insights - Copart is expected to report Q4 FY'25 earnings on September 3, with projected revenue of approximately $1.14 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $0.36, up by $0.03 from the previous year [3][4][5] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $47 billion and generated $4.6 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $1.6 billion and net income of $1.5 billion [5] - The historical performance shows that Copart has had 19 earnings data points over the past five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in a positive return rate of approximately 42%, which increases to 45% when considering the last 3 years [10] Market Trends - Growth in Copart's operations is driven by an increased number of vehicles being scrapped due to natural disasters, rising vehicle repair costs, and insurance companies declaring more vehicles as total losses [4] - The company is expanding its geographical presence in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, which is facilitating its growth [4] Trading Strategies - There are two approaches for trading around earnings announcements: understanding historical probabilities and positioning ahead of the announcement, or analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [6] - A less risky strategy involves gauging the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to execute trades based on the strongest correlations observed [7][8]

Company Overview - Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) is an off-price department store retailer, smaller than competitors like TJX or Ross, but is in a phase of expansion [3] - The company has a current market capitalization of $18 billion and reported revenue of $11 billion over the past twelve months, with operational profits of $730 million and net income of $526 million [3] Earnings Expectations - Burlington Stores is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 28, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.29 per share on $2.63 billion in revenue, indicating an 11% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 6% rise in sales [2] - For Q1 FY2025, Burlington reported sales of $2.5 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $1.67, exceeding estimates [3] - The company anticipates Q2 sales growth of 5-7% and an EPS of $1.20-$1.30, reaffirming full-year EPS guidance of $8.70-$9.30 and sales growth of 6-8% [3] Historical Performance - Historically, BURL stock has dropped 55% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 3.8% and a maximum recorded drop of 13% [2] - Over the past five years, positive one-day returns post-earnings occurred approximately 45% of the time, with a median of 8.7% for positive returns and -3.8% for negative returns [4] Trading Strategies - For event-driven traders, understanding historical trends may provide an advantage in positioning prior to earnings or reacting to movements post-release [3] - A strategy to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nutanix is set to report earnings on August 27, 2025, with historical data indicating significant share price movements following earnings announcements, showing a 60% chance of a positive one-day return after earnings [3][4]. Financial Performance - Analysts expect Nutanix to report earnings of $0.33 per share on revenue of $643 million, compared to $0.27 per share on $548 million in the same quarter last year [4]. - The company has a market capitalization of $18 billion, with $2.4 billion in revenue, $129 million in operating profit, and $24 million in net income over the past twelve months [4]. Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the last five years, Nutanix has experienced a positive one-day return after earnings announcements 60% of the time, with a median gain of 9.9% and a maximum increase of 29.2% [3][7]. - In the most recent three-year period, the likelihood of a positive one-day return increases to 67% [7]. Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders can utilize historical odds to inform their positions before and after earnings results, assessing immediate moves in relation to medium-term returns [6][8]. - Correlation analysis between one-day, five-day, and twenty-one-day returns can help identify trading strategies based on historical performance [8][9].

Group 1 - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on August 22, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.09 per share and revenue of $5.48 billion, indicating no change in earnings year-over-year and a 5% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company has reiterated its fiscal 2025 guidance, emphasizing membership, traffic, and digital momentum as key growth drivers, alongside a 25% price advantage over supermarkets and plans to open 25-30 new clubs in the next two years [2] - BJ's has reported a market capitalization of $14 billion, with revenue for the last twelve months at $21 billion, operating profits of $848 million, and net income of $573 million [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that BJ's stock has increased after earnings announcements 55% of the time, with a median one-day gain of 7.2% and a maximum increase of 20% [1][5] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, while the percentage of positive returns drops to 45% when considering the last three years [5] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can provide a lower-risk trading strategy, particularly if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [6]

Core Insights - Deere (NYSE: DE) is expected to release earnings on August 14, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $4.59 per share and revenues of $10.33 billion, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $6.29 per share and revenues of $11.39 billion [4] - Over the past five years, Deere's stock has increased by 100%, outperforming the S&P 500, which gained around 70% during the same period, indicating a better fit for long-term investors rather than short-term traders [3] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $138 billion, with $44 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, yielding an operating profit of $9.4 billion and a net income of $5.7 billion [5] Trading Strategies - For event-driven traders, two main strategies are suggested: assessing historical probabilities to take positions before earnings and analyzing immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to adjust positions accordingly [7] - Historical data shows that in the past five years, Deere's stock had a balanced distribution in one-day performance post-earnings, with 50% of cases resulting in negative returns (median -3.1%) and 50% in positive returns (median +5.2%) [10] Correlation and Performance - There is a correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D, 21D) returns following earnings, which can be leveraged for trading strategies [8] - The performance of peers can influence Deere's stock reaction post-earnings, with historical comparisons showing how peer earnings impact stock performance [9]

Core Insights - McDonald's is expected to report fiscal Q2 earnings on August 6, 2025, with analysts predicting adjusted earnings of $3.14 per share and revenue of $6.7 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year growth in earnings and a 3% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - The company is facing macroeconomic challenges and weak U.S. traffic but anticipates recovery driven by value pricing, menu innovations, and favorable currency exchange rates [3] - McDonald's has reaffirmed its full-year goals and expects a gradual rebound in Q2 and beyond, with a current market capitalization of $217 billion and revenue of $26 billion over the past twelve months [3] Earnings Performance History - Historically, McDonald's stock has underperformed after earnings announcements, with a decline observed 53% of the time and a median one-day decrease of 0.6% [2] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points for McDonald's, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 47% of the time, dropping to 45% in the last three years [5] - The median of positive returns is 2.7%, while the median of negative returns is -0.6% [5] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may benefit from historical trends by timing their trades around earnings announcements [4] - A lower-risk strategy involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to take positions based on favorable one-day returns [6] - The performance of peers can influence McDonald's stock reaction post-earnings, with pricing potentially starting before the earnings are reported [7]

Company Overview - Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) is a leading American data storage company known for manufacturing hard drives, solid-state drives, and NAND flash memory [2] - The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts expecting adjusted earnings of $1.48 per share on $2.47 billion in revenue [2] Earnings Expectations - The expected earnings indicate a year-over-year increase of 3% in earnings but a significant 34% drop in revenue compared to the same quarter of the previous year, which reported $1.44 per share and $3.76 billion in revenue [2] - This earnings announcement will be the second following the successful completion of Western Digital's planned separation from SanDisk, allowing the company to focus on its core HDD business [2] Historical Performance - Historically, Western Digital's stock has decreased after earnings announcements 53% of the time, with a median one-day loss of 3.1% and a maximum post-earnings decline of 10% [3] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $24 billion, with revenue over the last twelve months at $19 billion, generating $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.7 billion [3] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical performance patterns and the gap between actual earnings results and market expectations to inform their strategies [4] - Traders may choose to position themselves ahead of the earnings release or react after the announcement based on short- and medium-term returns [4] Post-Earnings Return Analysis - Over the last five years, there have been 19 documented earnings data points for Western Digital, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns observed about 47% of the time [5] - This percentage increases to 50% when considering data from the last three years [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 4.7%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.1% [5] Correlation of Returns - Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can help traders make informed decisions [6] - If the 1D post-earnings return is positive and shows high correlation with 5D returns, traders can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days [6]

Group 1 - Electronic Arts (EA) is set to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.64 per share on sales of $1.23 billion, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $1.01 per share on sales of $1.26 billion [3][4] - Over the past twelve months, EA achieved $7.5 billion in revenue, with $1.6 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.1 billion, resulting in a current market cap of approximately $39 billion [4] - Historical data shows that EA stock tends to have positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 55% of cases, with a median one-day gain of 2.2% and the largest increase reaching 8.0% [2][6] Group 2 - There are 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns recorded, indicating a 55% occurrence of positive returns [6] - The percentage of positive one-day returns increases to 58% when analyzing data from the last three years [6] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 2.2%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -5.5% [6] Group 3 - Traders can utilize historical trends for event-driven strategies, either by positioning ahead of earnings announcements or analyzing post-earnings returns to guide future positioning [3][5] - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly [7][8]

Core Insights - JetBlue Airways is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with a historical trend of negative one-day returns post-earnings announcements, occurring in 80% of cases, with a median decline of -5.9% [2][3][7] - Analysts forecast a loss of $0.33 per share on revenues of $2.29 billion for the upcoming quarter, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $0.08 per share on revenues of $2.43 billion [3][4] - JetBlue's current market capitalization is approximately $1.5 billion, with total revenue of $9.2 billion over the past twelve months, but it has incurred operational losses of $110 million and a net loss of $287 million [4] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, JetBlue has recorded 20 earnings data points, with only 4 positive one-day returns, indicating a 20% success rate, which drops to 17% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the 4 positive returns is 2.7%, while the median of the 16 negative returns is -5.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities, while post-earnings analysis can help in understanding the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns [6][8] - Correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can guide trading strategies, particularly if strong correlations are identified [8][9]