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GFL(GFL) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

2026-02-11 23:00

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenues grew by 7.3%, driven by better-than-expected contributions from pricing, volume, and M&A, despite headwinds from foreign exchange [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $1.985 billion, with Q4 margins at 30.2%, marking the highest Q4 margin in the company's history [13][14] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q4 was $425 million, totaling $756 million for 2025, ahead of plan due to EBITDA outperformance [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pricing increased by 6.4% for Q4 and 6.1% for the year, exceeding original expectations [12] - Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 175 basis points in the Canadian segment and increased in the U.S. segment, excluding the impact of prior year hurricane volumes [13] - C&D-related volume remained soft, but the company is positioned for recovery when the broader economy improves [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 volumes were 70 basis points ahead of plan, attributed to unanticipated special waste activity [12] - The pricing environment remains constructive, with expectations for continued pricing above internal cost of inflation [6] - Commodity prices decreased by 33% year-over-year, impacting margins, but underlying consolidated margins improved by over 150 basis points from the prior year [13][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve low- to mid-30s margins by 2028, with a focus on operational efficiency and capital allocation strategy [7][10] - The sale of the ES segment has simplified the business into a pure-play solid waste leader, enhancing equity value [8] - The relocation of the executive headquarters to the U.S. is expected to increase visibility with investors and broaden the shareholder base [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to meet and potentially exceed 2026 guidance, citing multiple avenues for upside [10][11] - The macro environment remains challenging, but there are signs of recovery in capital spending from large customers, which could lead to increased volume [92] - The company is committed to maintaining leverage in the low to mid-3s range while pursuing M&A opportunities [22] Other Important Information - The company completed $3 billion in share repurchases in 2025, with an additional $750 million deployed in the second half of the year due to favorable stock pricing [9] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion improved to 38%, with expectations for further growth in 2026 [19] - The company plans to provide more detailed disclosures regarding the performance of GIP and ES in future quarterly releases [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the leverage guidance assume no incremental M&A and buyback? - Management confirmed that the leverage guidance is based on exiting 2026 in the low to mid threes, with potential increases if M&A and buybacks occur [22] Question: Can you break down the EBITDA bridge for 2026? - Management acknowledged the components affecting EBITDA, including M&A rollover benefits and FX impacts, indicating organic EBITDA growth in the mid- to high single digits is achievable [24][25] Question: What is the outlook for incremental growth CapEx investments? - Management indicated that growth CapEx is front-end loaded, with expectations for significant contributions from EPR in Q1, tapering off through the year [30][32] Question: How are volumes expected to perform in 2026? - Management anticipates modestly positive volumes, with potential upside from EPR and market conditions improving [33][35] Question: How does the company balance M&A and share buybacks? - Management stated that while the stock is undervalued, they will continue to evaluate both M&A opportunities and share buybacks based on market conditions [37][38] Question: What is the expected cadence of pricing in 2026? - Management expects a strong start in Q1 with pricing tapering down throughout the year, indicating high visibility into pricing for 2026 [41][42] Question: How did GIP and ES perform in 2025? - Management reported that both businesses performed in line with expectations, with GIP primarily driven by government contracts [45] Question: Is there a plan for more disclosure on GIP and ES? - Management confirmed plans to provide more detailed disclosures on these businesses in future reports [77]