国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月24日 07:37 上海 【国富期货早间看点】印尼2026年生物燃料配额1564.6万千升 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增242.47万吨 20251224 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4016.00 | 2. 07 | 0. 73 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.54 | 2. 36 | 0. 31 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.95 | 2. 49 | 0. 29 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1064.00 | 0. 42 | 0. 07 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 301. 70 | 0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.08 | 1.49 | 0. 86 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 29 | -0. 42 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0572 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普呼吁新任美联储主席"择机降息" •意大利通过争议预算案 拟将央行黄金"国有化" •美国Q3 GDP增速创两年新高 初值达4.3%远超预期 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普发文表示，希望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现强劲时果断降息，而非因通胀担 忧过早收紧政策。他批评当前市场逻辑扭曲——"好消息反成利空"，强调低利率有助于推高股市、刺激 经济并缓解住房负担，并称股市繁荣或可带动美国GDP年增幅达10%至20%。 •意大利参议院通过2026年预算案，其中包含一项将央行持有的2453吨黄金"归全体国民所有"的修正条 款。此举已遭欧洲央行两次警告，批评者担忧黄金储备或被用于填补财政缺口，威胁央行独立性与金融 稳定。 •美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值录得4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%，为2023年以来最快增 速，显示经济韧性依然强劲。 •美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值上涨2.9%，与预期一致，较第二季度终值2.6%有所回 升；整体PCE物价指数初值上涨2.8%，亦符合预期，表明通胀仍处于温和上行通道。 •受运输设备需求疲软拖累，美国10月耐用品订单环比下降2 ...

受益于强劲的消费者和企业支出以及更加平稳的贸易政策，美国经济在第三季度展现出两年来最快的扩张步伐。 23日，美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的初步数据显示： 此次数据的发布背景较为特殊。原定于10月30日公布的GDP先期预估数据因政府停摆而被取消，而此次停摆也创下了历史最长纪录。受此影响， 数据发布流程作出了调整。美国经济分析局通常会分三次发布季度增长预估，并在更多数据流入后对预测进行微调，但针对本次受停摆影响的周 期，该机构将一改惯例，仅发布两次估算数据。 数据发布后，美元指数短线拉升约10点，现报97.99。美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.15%左右的跌幅。美国10年期国债收 益率短线拉升，现报4.149%。现货黄金短线走低约4美元，现报4485.51美元/盎司。 消费支出领跑经济增长 然而，部分官员对进一步大幅降低借贷成本表现出犹豫，主要原因在于通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。报告显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标—— 剔除食品和能源的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，在第三季度上涨了2.9%。 本次报告详细数据显示，作为美国经济最大支柱的消费者支出在第三季度表现尤为亮眼，增长了3.5%，远高于 ...

上周（12月1日~12月5日）周初受制造业PMI数据下滑、哈塞特当选概率大涨影响，降息预期大幅 升温，推动金价上涨，一度逼近4300美元关口。随后美国PCE符合预期，金价大幅跳水回落。截至上周 收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度跌0.64%报4227.7美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度 涨0.81%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨3.85%。 消息面上，上周五晚间美联储最青睐的通胀指标数据公布，美国9月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨 0.2%，与预期值一致。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，彭博社调查预期为2.8%，亦符合预 期。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 相关分析指出，在美联储12月议息会议前夕公布的上述PCE物价数据依旧支撑美联储继续降息25个 基 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in September, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and core PCE inflation rates [1] Group 2 - In September, personal income in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and matching the previous month's value [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in September showed no change (0%) month-on-month, falling short of the expected increase of 0.1% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] - The core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations and the previous month's figure [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index stood at 2.83%, slightly above the expected 2.8% and down from the previous 2.9% [1] - The overall PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations and remaining consistent with the previous month's increase [1] - Year-on-year, the PCE price index was reported at 2.8%, matching expectations and showing an increase from the previous 2.7% [1]

12月5日，金价早盘震荡调整，午后反弹走强，纽约金价重新站上4250美元关口，截至A股收盘， COMEX黄金期货交投于4257美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.81%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨 2.25%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.21%。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius认为，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示，美国劳动力市场明显出现 了降温迹象，这可能意味着美联储12月降息25个基点已经基本板上钉钉。高盛认为，美国通胀率的上升 不太可能破坏他们对联邦基金利率的预测。美国的潜在通胀率已降至约2%，而一旦关税传导效应在 2026年年中结束，实际的核心PCE通胀率应会进一步下降。 近期劳动力市场数据信号不一：周四数据显示上周初请失业金人数降至逾三年最低，但周三的ADP报告 则显示民间就业岗位减少。市场焦点已完全转向将于今晚发布的美国9月PCE物价指数，这是美联储最 青睐的通胀指标。 ...

文章来源：金投网 北京时间周五（12月5日）亚盘时段，国际白银震荡微升，截至发稿，国际白银价格暂报57.13美元/盎 司，上涨0.07%，目前来看，国际银价盘内短线偏向看涨走势。随着美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价 指数报告的即将公布，投资者们正屏息以待，这份美联储青睐的通胀指标将直接影响12月政策会议的决 策方向。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 【要闻速递】 周四美国国债价格下跌结束了连续三天的上涨，10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期收 益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力市 场韧性的显现，略微打击了降息预期，同时投资者在美联储会议前整固仓位。 美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数环比大降53.4%至7.1321万人，前值15.3074万人；美国上周初请失业金人 数录得19.1万人，为2022年9月24日当周以来新低，不及市场预期的22万人。 尽管续请人数居高不下表明市场仍疲软，但整体读数偏低导致收益率反弹。收益率曲线的变化不大，两 年/10年期差维持在57.7个基点附近，显示市场对经 ...

昨日12月4日（星期四），黄金早盘小幅上涨4217附近受阻下跌，到中午最低跌至4175附近。随后行情企稳开始震荡上涨，到凌晨最高上涨至4219/4220区 域，收盘前回落至4200-4210区间震荡，日线收出一根下影线长于上影线的十字阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国劳动力市场数据 核心利好数据：12月4日公布的上周初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创逾三年新低，远低于22万人的预期，降幅达2.7万人；未经季节性调整申请人数骤降近5 万至19.7221万人，续请失业金人数减少4000人至193.9万人，缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。 整体来看，短期，在PCE数据公布前，市场观望情绪浓厚，黄金或维持窄幅震荡，受美债收益率上涨与美元弱势双重作用，难现大幅突破。中长线上，全球 不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍具吸引力；劳动力市场韧性与美联储降息预期为金价提供支撑，若PCE数据低于预期，或触发新一轮买盘。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金价格于周三呈现冲高回落态势，周四则下探后震荡回升，整体围绕4200上下展开区间震荡。从技术指标来看，5日均线已逐步走平，10日 均线与20日均线维持多头发散格局，短期趋势仍具一定支撑性。 今日开盘价位于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. The trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the latest PCE price index was not available, and the expectation of interest rate cuts did not change much. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the weak fundamental state. Without new positive factors, the stock index maintained a volatile trend today. However, except for the slight convergence of the discount of IF in the basis of stock index futures, the discounts of the rest deepened. The dividend index led the rise again, indicating that market sentiment has cooled down and become more cautious. Currently, both the upper pressure and the lower support have weakened. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a narrow - range oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.05%. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 735.53 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IM declined with increasing volume, and the rest of the varieties also declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, with an expected 225,000 [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.0893 | 4.2497 | 11.2976 | 18.3443 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.3606 | 0.7008 | 0.6006 | 0.5893 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4196 | 9.2285 | 25.457 | 36.4043 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.4902 | 0.6077 | 0.5482 | 0.2816 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.29 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17097.94 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -735.53 | [6]