Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for December 2025 increased from 2.8% to 3.0% year-on-year, and the month-on-month change rose from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The overall PCE price index for December 2025 also saw a rise from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The rebound in PCE price data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations that rates will remain unchanged until at least May 2026 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q4 2025 significantly dropped from 4.4% to 1.4%, falling short of the expected 3.0%, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] - The dual risks of economic downturn and potential inflation rebound complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - A potential military strike by President Trump against Iran could lead to a spike in international oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S. economy [2] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook places the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, prompting investors to approach the U.S. capital markets with caution [3] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar may accelerate the outflow of international capital from U.S. markets [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the December PCE price index in the United States, which increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% and up from the previous value of 0.2% [1] - The year-on-year core PCE price index for December was reported at 3%, higher than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month core PCE price index for December also recorded a 0.4% increase, aligning with the expectations but up from the prior value of 0.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed resilience, rebounding to approximately $4934.16 per ounce, driven by market bottom-fishing despite a previous drop of over 2% due to reduced risk aversion [1][2][3] Market Environment - Overall trading volume remains relatively low due to some regions being on holiday, which amplifies price volatility [3] - The easing of concerns over conflict escalation due to the "guiding principles" from US-Iran negotiations has compressed the gold risk premium [3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% on Tuesday, raising the cost of metals priced in dollars [3] - Silver and platinum saw rebounds of 3% and 2% respectively, while copper rose by 1% to $12,705.20 per ton, indicating a cyclical recovery in the overall commodity market [3] Trader Sentiment and Future Outlook - Traders are generally cautious and are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting minutes, which will serve as a key indicator for future monetary easing [2][4] - The PCE price index, set to be released on Friday, is expected to directly influence the urgency of interest rate cuts, with minor changes in inflation data potentially triggering new volatility in the metals market [4] - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices from a stronger dollar and delayed rate cut expectations, this price pullback may provide a viable entry point for long-term investors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with multiple influencing factors. The macro - environment has both positive and negative aspects, and the supply - demand relationship is also in a state of change. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high due to cost support and the tight supply of scrap aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 - It is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and its price is likely to remain high due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and cost support. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3.2行情回顾 - In January, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. The alumina futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices showed a strong trend [7]. 3.3宏观面 - **US Economic Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was revised upwards, the initial jobless claims increased slightly, and the PCE price index rose moderately. The labor market is still slowing down. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025. The next Fed rate cut may drive a new round of rise in non - ferrous metals, and the specific timing of the rate cut is worthy of attention [9][10]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical potential risks are escalating, and the global aluminum premium transmission is intensifying [13]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's economy generally remains stable, and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The central bank will maintain the LPR unchanged. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been issued, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [14][16]. - **Supply Situation**: The domestic supply of bauxite is in a tight pattern. In December 2025, the domestic bauxite output increased slightly month - on - month, and the short - term supply increase is limited. Overseas, the supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be stable, with an estimated export volume of 180 million tons in 2026, but the supply from Australia has decreased. The alumina production capacity is increasing, but there are many maintenance and production cuts recently, and the supply pressure has decreased [17][18][21][23]. 3.4基本面 - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase at a high level, but the overall supply is restricted. In December 2025, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. In January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, and the output was 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Overseas, the release of production capacity is lower than expected [26][27][30]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Affected by the Spring Festival effect and high aluminum prices, the operating rate of aluminum processing has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating rate of aluminum processing is 59.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week [32][33]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were - 16.6%, - 36.8%, - 19.3%, and - 18.4% respectively. The annual data also showed a decline, but the sales decline has narrowed, and there may be an improvement in real estate expectations [35]. - **Automobile and Photovoltaic Industries**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a new high, with new energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 19 million in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of automobiles is expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The new photovoltaic installation in December 2025 decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.3% [39][41]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory is in a continuous destocking state, while the SHFE aluminum inventory is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is in the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to continue in February. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the scrap aluminum market is in short supply, and the cost support remains [42][43][46][52]. - **Aluminum Export and Import**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the export decreased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the import increased by 33.3% year - on - year. The export of aluminum products is expected to remain stable in January [50].

Economic Overview - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week, ending a previous expansion trend, but remains close to the stable zone around 100, indicating a phase of consolidation after prior growth[1] - The consumption index fell into the contraction zone, reflecting a marginal cooling in post-holiday consumption, although the decline is limited and overall remains robust[1] - The investment index also decreased, with corporate investment entering a wait-and-see phase after prior expansion, maintaining a level around 100, indicating continued support for domestic demand[1] - The production index showed a slight recovery into the expansion zone, suggesting stabilization as industrial production activities return to normal post-holiday[1] Structural Insights - In 2025, China's GDP reached approximately 140.19 trillion RMB, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, demonstrating strong macroeconomic resilience amid complex external conditions[2] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw value-added growth of 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the overall manufacturing sector, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers[2] - There is a steady improvement in innovation capabilities and a structured push towards green transformation, with green electricity and green economy sectors thriving[2] - Business confidence is gradually improving, with enhanced operational expectations from enterprises and increased activity in service and new consumption sectors among residents[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but there is still support in the long - term fundamentals [53]. - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may experience high - level shock adjustment [50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including economic data at home and abroad, supply and demand of raw materials, production and inventory of aluminum products, and downstream consumption. It points out that the aluminum market is affected by various factors, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term positive fundamentals [53]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Stable operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and high enthusiasm of precious metal funds [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Continuous accumulation of social inventory, further weakening of consumption near the Spring Festival, and accumulation of inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic data**: In the US, the GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November increased moderately, and the number of initial jobless claims was 200,000. In China, the GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [11][14]. - **Raw material supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with a 4.21% year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to November 2025, but a 5.26% year - on - year decline in November. Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose, with China's imports in December 2025 reaching 14.67 million tons, and Guinea's supply stabilizing [16][19]. - **Alumina production**: In 2025, domestic alumina added 9.8 million tons of new capacity, and it is expected to add 8.6 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons. Overseas, 8.5 million tons of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2026, with 5.5 million tons expected in 2026 [23]. - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month [26]. - **Downstream processing**: The average weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable remained stable at 59.6%, aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 66%, aluminum foil increased by 0.7% to 71.4%, and aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9% to 47.9%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained stable at 58% [28]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory accumulated to 509,275 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.23% to 185,879 tons in the week of January 16. As of January 19, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 764,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last Thursday [34][37]. - **Price situation**: On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 18.98 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges expanding [39]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In December 2025, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41,800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement, and the operating rate of small enterprises was only 12.74%. As of January 15, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58%, remaining flat week - on - week [41][42]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from last week [46]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but the long - term fundamentals are positive with support [53].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for November 2025 in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.8% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both meeting expectations [2] - The PCE data indicates that inflation in the U.S. economy has not significantly rebounded, providing sufficient room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on monetary policy suggests that the interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the January meeting [2] Monetary Policy Implications - Despite pressure from the U.S. government, Powell is determined to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that interest rates may remain stable until at least May when he is expected to step down [2] - The potential for sustained interest rates implies that negative pressures on the U.S. economy from interest rates will not be alleviated in the short term, complicating the maintenance of current economic growth [2] Economic Outlook - The Trump administration is expected to strive to maintain economic growth trends despite the pressures of the midterm elections, but this does not eliminate the negative pressures facing the U.S. economy [2] - Investors are advised to approach the situation with caution due to the possibility of unusual economic conditions arising [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US PCE price index for November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, matching expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in November, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and PCE price indices, which align with market expectations [1] Group 2 - In November, personal income increased by 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4% [1] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.5%, matching the market expectation [1] - The year-on-year PCE price index stood at 2.8%, in line with expectations [1] - The month-on-month PCE price index increased by 0.2%, consistent with forecasts [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 0.2%, meeting expectations [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.793, while spot gold opened at $4830.31 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4801.69 per ounce [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.22% to close at 98.767, and spot gold increased by 1.45% to $4831.59 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals experienced declines, with spot silver down 1.61% to $93.04 per ounce, platinum down 0.12% to $2478.00 per ounce, and palladium down 1.87% to $1841.00 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of January 21, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 1124.17 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 129.49 tons to 13135.42 tons [2] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.00 tons to 1077.66 tons, whereas SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 149.42 tons to 16222.48 tons [2] Group 3 - The US is expected to discuss potential trade negotiations with China, as stated by US Trade Representative Lighthizer [4] - The European Parliament has announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU-US trade agreement [4]