Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

美国商业银行：美联储降息更可能是由于通胀而非失业率 瑞穗证券：封闭贸易政策或促使投资转向欧元区 Convera：地缘政治紧张局势缓或削弱美元支撑力 【机构分析】 SMBC日兴证券策略师指出，东京6月份的通胀数据由于水电费临时下调而显著放缓，但市场对此并没 有给予太多关注。尽管通胀数据疲软可能会导致收益率下降，但由于日本公债期货被抛售，收益率实际 上有所上升。 Gotshal andManges指出，欧洲目前正面临高于平均水平的企业困境，这种情况在历史上较为罕见。与以 往的经济周期相比，自2022年中期政府的疫情纾困措施效力逐渐减弱以来，企业所遭遇的困境便一直延 续至今。欧洲缺乏经济增长，这种情况已经削弱了市场的信心；在没有显著改善迹象的情况下，诸如零 售和消费、工业以及房地产等行业所面临的困境不太可能得到大幅缓解。 CBA外汇策略师指出，越早宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，其政策影响力就越弱，这增加了市场的 不确定性。即将公布的美国核心PCE物价指数被视为美联储利率决策的重要参考指标。若该数据表现疲 软，将进一步增强美联储的鸽派立场并加重美元的下行压力。 瑞穗证券策略师认为，如果美国采取更加封闭的贸易政策，欧元 ...

美国5月核心PCE物价指数月率 0.2%，预期0.10%，前值0.10%。美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比增长 2.68%，预期增长2.6%。 ...

金十数据6月27日讯，美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.7%，高于预期的2.6%，创2025年2月以来新 高。美国5月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.2%，市场预期持平于0.1%。 美国核心PCE年率升幅高于预期 ...

美国5月PCE物价指数月率 0.1%，预期0.10%，前值0.10%。 ...

美国5月PCE物价指数年率 2.3%，预期2.30%，前值由2.10%修正为2.2%。 ...

美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率 2.7%，预期2.60%，前值由2.50%修正为2.6%。 ...

美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比 2.68%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.5%。 ...

智通财经6月27日电，美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.68%，预期增长2.6%。 ...

美国5月个人支出月率、核心PCE物价指数月率及年率、加拿大4月GDP月率将于十分钟后公布。 ...