医药生物行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 替尔泊肽加冕，减重热潮未平 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发失败的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；创新药商业化的风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 医药生物行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 看好（维持） 伍云飞 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 香港证监会牌照：BRX199 wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 胡俊涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124030026 | | --- | --- | | | hujuntao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 减脂保肌强协同，小核酸开启减重新纪 | 2026-01-14 | | --- | --- | | 元：—医药行业专题报告 | | | 小核酸药物：治疗潜力显现，蕴藏 BD 机 | 2025-07-27 | | 遇：——医药行业专题报告 | | | 减重需求正盛，多方向酝酿破局：——医 | 2025-06-25 | | 药行业周专题 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 20.71 [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the overseas licensing of UBT251 as a demonstration of the company's R&D capabilities, with an innovative drug pipeline expected to yield results [2][3]. - UBT251 is the first three-target weight loss drug authorized to a multinational corporation (MNC) in China, with significant clinical progress anticipated by 2025 and potential market peaks in both domestic and overseas sales [3][4]. - The company has a robust antibiotic and insulin segment, with a comprehensive supply chain from upstream intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into animal health, which is expected to drive new growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into new therapeutic areas such as autoimmune diseases and metabolism [13][14]. - Historical performance shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 11.55% from 2005 to 2023, although recent performance has been impacted by production adjustments and increased R&D investments [25][29]. 2. UBT251 Development - UBT251 has commenced multiple clinical trials in China, with significant milestones expected in the coming years, including potential market approval by 2028 [3][37]. - The competitive landscape for three-target weight loss drugs is favorable, with UBT251 currently positioned second in clinical progress among domestic competitors [39][40]. 3. Antibiotic and Insulin Segments - The antibiotic market is expected to grow steadily, driven by the rigid demand for penicillin formulations, while the insulin segment has shown resilience with a significant increase in procurement volumes [4][6]. - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by antibiotic procurement policies, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [4][6]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.89% for 2025, with net profits expected to reach approximately CNY 2.86 billion [7][8]. - The report anticipates a peak sales potential of CNY 7.7 billion domestically and USD 6 billion overseas for UBT251, assuming a 50% success rate for market entry [3][4].