Crypto faces a critical test this week as the quarterly options expiry collides with a key U.S. inflation reading, a convergence that could determine whether the rally gains momentum or falters. Roughly, $22.3 billion in crypto options will expire as the third quarter comes to a close on Friday, according to options exchange Deribit. Out of which, Bitcoin options with a notional value of $17.06 billion are set to expire. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at options analytics platform Amberdata, told De ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current market has approximately $15 billion of gamma, with a high concentration on strikes slightly below the current market level, indicating a potential shift post month-end due to rolling of large quarterly positions and re-striking of overwriting products [1][2] - The upcoming options expiration on June 20 is projected to be the largest June expiration on record, with over $5.9 trillion of notional options exposure, including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion of single stock options [4][10] - The liquidity in the S&P E-mini market is moderate, with a top-of-book depth of $7.1 million, slightly below the year-to-date average [7] - Pension funds are expected to sell approximately $20 billion of US equities at quarter-end, but this may be offset by an estimated $10 billion of buying if the SPX trades above 5905 on the last day of the month [9][10] - A significant number of companies (approximately 40%) are currently in a blackout period for buybacks, which is expected to end around July 25 [12] - Systematic strategies currently hold $126 billion in US equities, with a projected small sell-off of $310 million in a flat market scenario, but potential buying demand of $790 million over the next week [14][15] - Historically, the second half of June has shown positive returns for the S&P, averaging 45 basis points from June 17 to July 1 [17] - The AI-led rally has resulted in a divergence in stock performance, with AI winners reaching new highs while companies perceived to be at risk from AI have declined [19] - There is increased demand for tail options, particularly in the QQQ market, indicating a preference for hedging strategies amid market volatility [21][22] - The vega of the VIX ETN has increased significantly, with the UVIX ETF's assets under management growing more than fivefold in recent months, highlighting the product's role in the VIX futures market [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "green light" for the short-term outlook of US equities, indicating a positive investment sentiment [2]. Core Insights - The market is experiencing upward momentum until summer technicals and economic data come into play, with investors likely to be halted before any significant drawdown occurs [3]. - Retail investors are actively buying dips in US equities, while institutional activity remains muted [2]. - Robust liquidity is noted, with top of book liquidity at $11.08 million, above the one-year average of $10.65 million, supporting healthy trading in the near term [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Setup - The report highlights a preference for specific trades, including SPX call spreads and hedging strategies for long positions [5]. - The liquidity environment is described as supportive for trading, although it may lose momentum as summer approaches [8]. Trading Activity - US equities have seen net buying for six consecutive sessions, with a notable increase in long buys, indicating strong market interest [27]. - The overall gross leverage has increased to 289.2%, placing it in the 95th percentile for the past year, driven by short leverage [28][29]. Seasonal Trends - The report notes that early to mid-June typically sees moderate market increases, providing a favorable trading environment, especially for bearish long-term views [64]. ETF Flows - Significant inflows into factor ETFs were observed, with May being the best month for inflows since the election, indicating strong investor interest in momentum strategies [43][50]. - The report also mentions a growing interest from global investors in emerging market equities due to USD weakness and US growth uncertainty [54].

很多新手在刚接触金融交易的时候，都会问一个问题："同样是投资一手，期货和期权哪个能赚得多？"这个问题其实挺复杂的，因为期货和期权的玩法不一 样，而且期权本身比期货更复杂一些。今天我们就用大白话来聊聊这个话题。 一、先搞清楚期货和期权的区别 （一）期货 期货交易就像是一场"赌涨跌"的游戏。你有两种选择： 做多（买方）：你觉得价格会涨，就买进期货合约。如果价格真的涨了，你就能赚钱。 做空（卖方）：你觉得价格会跌，就卖出期货合约。如果价格真的跌了，你也能赚钱。 （二）期权 期权就更复杂一些，因为它有四种玩法： 买入看跌期权：你觉得价格会跌，就买一个看跌期权。如果价格真的跌了，你就能赚钱。 卖出看跌期权：你觉得价格不会跌，就卖一个看跌期权。如果价格没跌，你也能赚钱。 二、设定一个简单场景来比较 为了方便比较，我们设定一个场景：假设行情上涨，我们同时持有期货多头（做多）和该期货合约对应的看涨期权多头（买入看涨期权）。这样就能直接比 较它们的收益情况。 文章来源：期权酱 三、从Delta说起：期权涨幅永远小于期货涨幅？ 买入看涨期权：你觉得价格会涨，就买一个看涨期权。如果价格真的涨了，你就能赚钱。 卖出看涨期权：你觉得价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Individual investors can participate in options trading, but there are specific requirements that must be met, summarized as "five have and one do not" [1] Group 1: Requirements for Individual Investors - **Have Assets**: Investors must have an average daily securities value and available cash balance of at least 500,000 RMB over the previous 20 trading days [2] - **Have Experience**: Investors need to have at least six months of trading experience with a securities company or a futures company, along with qualifications for margin trading or financial futures trading [4] - **Have Knowledge**: Investors must possess basic knowledge of options and pass relevant tests recognized by exchanges, understanding concepts such as strike price, premium, implied volatility, Delta, and Gamma [5] - **Have Simulation Trading Experience**: Investors are required to have recognized simulation trading experience in options [8] - **Have Risk Tolerance**: Investors must demonstrate the ability to bear risks associated with options trading, which is characterized by leverage and complexity [12] - **Do Not Have Bad Records**: Investors must not have serious bad credit records or any legal restrictions on engaging in options trading [12] Group 2: Exemptions and Special Conditions - **Exemption Conditions**: Certain conditions allow for exemptions from trading, funding, and testing requirements, such as being a professional investor or having a record of trading futures or options for at least 50 days in the past year [13] - **Additional Exemptions**: Investors who have previously opened accounts with other companies for the same type of trading or already possess options trading permissions may also qualify for exemptions [15] Group 3: Important Considerations - **Understanding Risks and Returns**: Investors should fully understand the risk and return characteristics of options trading, which has leverage effects and high risks [16] - **Choosing a Trading Platform**: It is essential for investors to select a reputable trading platform with transparent rules and reasonable fees [16] - **Developing a Trading Strategy**: Investors should create a trading strategy based on their risk tolerance and investment goals to avoid excessive trading and following trends blindly [16] Group 4: Definition of Options - **Definition**: Options are financial derivatives that grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame, while the seller must fulfill the obligation [17]