Global Economic Growth

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全球经济展望与策略:关税仍是核心问题
2025-08-25 01:38
V i e w p o i n t | 20 Aug 2025 08:41:26 ET │ 27 pages Global Economic Outlook & Strategy Tariffs Remain Front & Center CITI'S TAKE The global economy has shown continued resilience. Growth during the first half of the year slowed to 2½%, down from near 3% last year. But consumers and firms have absorbed tariff-related pressures surprisingly well, and our narratives for global inflation, monetary policy, and markets have remained broadly intact. Going forward, we see global growth stepping down in H2 to a l ...
IYK: The Resilient Appeal Of Consumer Staples With Additional Upside
Seeking Alpha· 2025-08-19 08:53
Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace, with growth rates of +2.8% for 2025, +3.3% for 2024, and +3.5% for 2023 [1] Investment Focus - The slowdown in economic growth warrants precaution and encourages a closer examination of investment opportunities [1]
IMF's Gourinchas Says Tariffs Are Causing Tepid Growth
Bloomberg Television· 2025-07-29 16:12
Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth expectations are diminished compared to previous expectations, but a modest upward revision exists compared to April due to easing trade tensions [2][3][4] - Medium-term growth has been relatively weak and is expected to continue, with tariffs potentially exacerbating this trend [6][7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to be around 17% on average for the US on the rest of the world, a significant increase from less than 3% last year [5] - The depreciation of the US dollar is amplifying the tariff shock, making foreign goods more expensive and US goods more competitive [10] - Tariffs are starting to transmit into domestic prices, with importers, distributors, retailers, and eventually customers likely to bear the cost [12][13] US Economic Performance - US GDP outlook for 2025 is revised to 19%, with a slight acceleration to 2% growth in 2026, partly due to tariffs not being as severe as expected and the recent budget bill [7][9][11] - The US economy has been helped by easing financial conditions, with equity markets performing well and a depreciation of the US dollar [10] Trade Deficits and Policy - The US is concerned about its trade deficit, a legitimate concern monitored by the IMF [15][16] - Tariffs and trade policy are unlikely to significantly reduce the US's external deficits, which are primarily driven by domestic fiscal policy [17][18] - The US fiscal policy, with 6-7% public deficits, is a primary driver of the external deficit, and addressing this through fiscal policy is preferable to raising tariffs [18][19]
全球经济:关键趋势和风险
McKinsey· 2025-07-15 09:26
Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with high interest rates impacting households and businesses[11] - Overall consumer confidence has declined due to high consumer prices, with spending slowing down across most regions except Brazil[13][22] - The OECD global consumer confidence index shows a downward trend, indicating reduced consumer sentiment[20] Manufacturing and Services Sector - Manufacturing experienced its first contraction in 2024, while the services sector continues to show stable growth[14] - Manufacturing growth in China and the US has stagnated, with the Eurozone still in contraction[34] - The services sector remains a bright spot in the global economy, driven by industrial production growth and capital market improvements[45] Trade and Supply Chain - Global trade volume increased by 0.7% in June, primarily driven by growth in developed economies[50] - The global supply chain market is normalizing, with the pressure index reaching historical averages in July[51] - Total port trade in June 2024 decreased compared to June 2023, mainly due to reduced activity in Asian economies[69] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rates in the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil's unemployment rate showed a declining trend[73] - Inflation in developed economies is easing, with the Eurozone facing deflationary pressures[77] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia experiencing an acceleration[84] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[89] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $2,439 per ounce in August[93] - Stock markets faced challenges in August, with most exchanges reporting losses[123]
高盛:全球经济评论-出人意料的小幅不确定性拖累
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-04 03:04
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the impact of trade policy uncertainty on economic activity, suggesting a smaller-than-feared drag on growth [5][34]. Core Insights - Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) rose significantly after President Trump's election but has recently decreased, with little evidence of a substantial negative impact on global economic activity [3][6]. - Investment, manufacturing employment, and consumer spending have remained stable, indicating that the anticipated slowdown due to TPU has not materialized as expected [12][34]. - The report highlights that trade-exposed investment constitutes a small portion of GDP, which may explain the limited observable effects of TPU on overall economic performance [21][22]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty increased after the election but has since pulled back, with indices remaining elevated yet showing no significant drag on growth [2][4]. - Historical data suggests that the impact of TPU peaks shortly after its increase, implying that any slowdown in growth should have already occurred [3][5]. Economic Activity - Despite initial fears, indicators of investment and overall activity have followed prior trends, with forecasts for growth in Q2 and the full year improving [12][34]. - The report notes that the frontloading of US imports may have masked some of the uncertainty's effects, but even after accounting for this, the drag from TPU appears limited [16][17]. Statistical Analysis - Statistical analyses indicate that uncertainty primarily affects growth through its interaction with financial conditions, with easing financial conditions since early 2025 potentially dampening the impact of uncertainty [26][27]. - The report presents regression results showing that while uncertainty has a small negative effect on activity, the combination of tighter financial conditions and increased uncertainty creates a significant drag on growth [27][29]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that while tariffs may slow activity later in the year, this will be driven more by direct impacts rather than uncertainty surrounding trade policy [34].
2025年全球经济展望报告–六月刊(英文)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 09:37
Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, the lowest rate since 2008, excluding global recession years [1][55] - Growth in advanced economies is projected to decline to 1.2%, with significant impacts from trade policies in the US and Eurozone [2][55] - Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are forecasted to grow at 3.8%, with China at 4.5% and India at 6.3%, although many countries are underperforming relative to expectations [2][55] Trade and Inflation - Global trade growth is anticipated to drop to 1.8% in 2025, with commodity prices expected to decline by 10% [2][67] - Global inflation is projected at 2.9% in 2025, with core inflation remaining high due to persistent service price pressures [2][68] Regional Economic Prospects - East Asia and Pacific growth is expected to slow to 4.5%, with risks from trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [4][56] - Europe and Central Asia are projected to grow at 2.4%, affected by tightening monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][56] - Latin America and the Caribbean are forecasted to have the lowest growth among EMDE regions at 2.3%, hindered by high trade barriers [5][56] - The Middle East and North Africa are expected to grow at 2.7%, with oil-exporting countries mitigating price drops through increased production [6][56] - South Asia is projected to grow at 5.8%, driven by India, while facing challenges from political and economic issues in neighboring countries [6][56] - Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 3.7%, with Nigeria and South Africa showing weak growth due to reliance on commodity exports [7][56] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Major risks include escalating trade barriers, tightening global financial conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme weather events [8][54] - Policy recommendations emphasize global cooperation to rebuild trade relations, restore fiscal order, and accelerate job creation [9][10][11]