3 July 2025 | 11:09AM EDT Global Economics Comment: A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag (Briggs/Dong) A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag Trade policy uncertainty rose in most countries after President Trump's election victory (and spiked sharply following Liberation Day on April 2), exceeding levels observed during the 2018-19 trade war. While uncertainty indices remain high Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o ...

By: Janet Henry and James Pomeroy Economics Global www.research.hsbc.com Q3 2025 Global Economics Uneven ground Frontloading ahead of US tariffs lifted global growth in Q1 but more US tariffs loom… …while complex US trade and fiscal negotiations are ongoing, and major conflicts are still under way Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Economics ● Global Q3 2025 Execut ...

据人民日报，当地时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。外贸环境依然难言稳定，市场持续将不确定性纳入考虑当 中。 数据方面，美国5月CPI同比增2.4%，核心CPI环比增0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期；美国5月PPI与核心PPI均环比温和增长0.1%、低于预期，核心PPI增速创 近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。5月美国PPI整体涨幅依然温和，关税尚未对消费者和企业造成更高的价格压力。然而美国企业的利润率持续承 压，表明企业正在自行消化关税成本。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，9月份前降息的可能性为75%。美国宏观经济数据对美 元表现产生明显影响，铜价也因此受到金融属性干扰。 全球交易所库存情况来看：截至6月16日，LME铜库存较6月9日减少12850吨至10.76万吨，前期为关税政策而提前配置的铜库存已经悉数耗尽，LME市场库 存偏紧格局正在形成当中；上期所铜库存减少5461吨至10.19万吨，目前国内精炼铜显性 ...

Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or a ...

全球经济增长受贸易壁垒上升、政策不确定性加剧等因素影响显著放缓，2025年增速预计降至2.3%，为2008年以来最低（除全球衰退年份）。新兴市场和 发展中经济体（EMDEs）增长乏力，缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距的进程受阻，贫困 reduction 进程缓慢。各区域经济前景分化， downside risks突出，需 全球合作与结构性改革应对。 全球经济展望 - 增长放缓：2025年全球GDP增速2.3%，2026-2027年温和回升至2.5%。发达经济体增速降至1.2%，美国、欧元区受贸易政策冲击显著。EMDEs增速3.8%， 中国增速4.5%，印度6.3%，但多数国家增长低于预期。 - 贸易与通胀：全球贸易增速2025年降至1.8%，商品价格下跌10%，能源价格受OPEC+增产和需求疲软影响显著。全球通胀2025年预计2.9%，核心通胀因服 务价格压力持续高企。 - 金融市场：全球金融条件收紧，EMDEs资本外流、汇率贬值压力加大，主权债利差扩大，但短期波动后部分恢复。 区域经济前景 主要风险与政策建议 - 风险挑战：贸易壁垒进一步升级、全球金融条件收紧、地缘政治冲突加剧、极端天气频发、新兴市场债务危机。 ...

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