In Brief Amazon has confirmed that it has acquired Fauna Robotics, a two-year-old startup founded by former Meta and Google engineers who are developing kid-size humanoid robots.The acquisition was first reported by Bloomberg. Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. What we do know is that Fauna’s employees, including its two founders, will join Amazon in New York City. “We are excited about Fauna’s vision to build capable, safe, and fun robots for everyone,” an Amazon spokesperson wrote in an emailed stateme ...

23 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK) Maintain BUY. Xpeng's 4Q25 net profit beat on R&D service income. We project its sales volume in 2H26E to double HoH despite a weak 1Q26, fuelled by aggressive export plans and 4 new models. We also believe that its mass production of humanoid robots this year could be a positive catalyst for shares. | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Reven ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has formed partnerships with European chipmakers Infineon, NXP, and STMicroelectronics to supply hardware for humanoid robots, targeting a potentially lucrative market [1][8] - The partnerships were announced ahead of Nvidia's annual GPU Technology Conference, where the focus will be on its Jetson Thor processors as the central computing platform for robots [2] Industry Overview - The humanoid robot market is projected to sell over 50,000 units this year for the first time, indicating significant growth potential [5][8] - Analysts suggest that Nvidia's platform is utilized in over 80% of humanoid robots, highlighting its dominance in the sector [5] Company Contributions - Infineon anticipates a market of approximately $500 in parts per robot, emphasizing the use of "digital twins" for performance testing during the design phase [6] - STMicroelectronics is focusing on providing sensors that connect cameras and motion sensors to Nvidia-based systems, enhancing robot functionality [6] - NXP is concentrating on ensuring fast and reliable internal communications within robots, facilitating quick data transfer to the central processor for coordinated movement and sensing [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing a potential third consecutive year of declining electric vehicle deliveries, with analysts significantly reducing their growth forecasts due to increased competition, loss of tax credits, and weak demand for affordable models [1] Group 1: Delivery Estimates and Market Conditions - Analysts have halved their 2026 delivery growth forecast for Tesla to 3.8% from 8.2% in January, with some predicting outright declines [1] - Tesla's vehicle deliveries are expected to drop nearly 5% this year, as the company struggles with competition and regulatory challenges in key markets [1] - The recent launch of cheaper variants of Tesla's popular models has not met expectations, contributing to the decline in demand [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Cash Flow - Tesla's capital expenditures are projected to double to over $20 billion, leading to expectations of negative cash flow for the first time in seven years [1] - Analysts now anticipate a negative free cash flow of about $5.19 billion on average for Tesla, a significant shift from previous expectations of generating $2.27 billion [1] - Revenue estimates from automotive sales for 2026 have been reduced to approximately $72 billion, down from nearly $138 billion two years ago [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Investor Sentiment - Despite declining vehicle sales, investors remain optimistic about Tesla's future due to potential advancements in self-driving software and robotics [1] - The company ended 2025 with $44.06 billion in cash and equivalents, providing some buffer against cash flow concerns [1] - Tesla's valuation, currently at $1.5 trillion, is heavily reliant on the successful rollout of autonomous driving technology and robotaxis [1]

Summary of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. (688017.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. (688017.SS) - **Industry**: Harmonic reduction gear market, focusing on humanoid and industrial robots Key Points Sales Growth and Demand - LeaderDrive anticipates strong sales growth in 2026, driven by a significant increase in humanoid applications, with year-to-date humanoid orders surpassing total orders for 2025 [2][5] - Expected growth rates for 2026: - 15% to 20% for industrial robot applications - 30% to 40% for collaborative robots (cobots) - Multi-fold increase for humanoid robots [5] Capacity and Utilization - The company achieved full utilization of its 600k–700k unit capacity in 2025, with humanoid applications accounting for 20% to 30% of production [2][5] - Plans for aggressive capacity expansion in 2026 to meet "pulse-like" demand from the humanoid industry, which may exceed current capacity [2][6] Market Position and Pricing Strategy - LeaderDrive holds over 70% market share in the domestic harmonic reduction gear market for humanoid applications [2][10] - Management aims to reduce the average selling price (ASP) of harmonic reduction gears to US$50–$60 (Rmb350–420) to maintain market dominance [2][10] - Current gross profit margin (GPM) for humanoid applications is high at 40% to 50%, but is expected to normalize as production scales [2][10] Product Diversification - The company is diversifying its product offerings, including bearings, planetary roller screws, cycloidal pinwheel reduction gears, and integrated modules [2][10] - Collaborations with auto OEMs to enter the NEV EMB (Electro-mechanical Brake System) and SBW (Steering-By-Wire) markets [10] Investment Thesis and Valuation - The investment rating for LeaderDrive is Neutral, with a 12-month target price set at Rmb123.00, indicating a potential downside of 42.1% from the current price of Rmb212.45 [11][9] - Positive long-term growth potential due to expanding total addressable market (TAM) across various applications [8] - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic demand for industrial robots and increased competition from local and overseas brands [9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the next few years: - 2025: Rmb581.6 million - 2026: Rmb897.7 million - 2027: Rmb1,187.7 million [11] Upside and Downside Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected production and technology advancements in humanoid robots - Quick penetration into key robot customers, especially foreign brands [9] - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected demand for domestic industrial and collaborative robots - Increased competitive pressure from both local and international brands [9] Conclusion Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. is positioned for significant growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with a strong market share and plans for capacity expansion. However, the company faces risks related to demand fluctuations and competition, leading to a Neutral investment rating.

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robotics Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Humanoid Robotics, specifically the development of dexterous hands for humanoid robots in the industrial and service sectors [1][8]. Key Points 1. **Importance of Dexterous Hands**: Hand dexterity is essential for humanoids to perform a wide range of tasks reliably, which is crucial for mass adoption [4][12]. 2. **Current State of Technology**: The industry is utilizing three main architectures for dexterous hands: tendon-driven, linkage, and direct-drive, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [5][13]. 3. **Expected Developments in 2026**: Anticipation of significant improvements in dexterous hands, enabling them to perform specialized tasks in constrained environments, with a gradual increase in market penetration [6][18]. 4. **Key Players**: Major companies in the dexterous hand market include Linkerbot, Inspire Robot, and OY Motion, with increasing interest from humanoid integrators like Tesla and Xiaomi [6][20]. 5. **Investment Trends**: Dexterous hands accounted for 7% of total financing activities in 2025, with a notable increase in capital focus, reaching nearly Rmb4 billion in early 2026 [20][22]. 6. **Challenges in Hardware and Software**: Persistent hardware bottlenecks and data bottlenecks hinder progress, with a need for high-fidelity datasets for effective manipulation algorithms [14][28]. 7. **Tactile Sensors**: Tactile sensing is critical for improving manipulation quality, enabling robots to interact safely and effectively with their environment [15][18]. 8. **Short-term Solutions**: In the near term, simpler grippers and task-specific end effectors are expected to dominate for basic tasks due to their practicality and efficiency [17][18]. 9. **Future Expectations**: The upcoming Tesla Optimus Gen 3 is anticipated to set a higher benchmark for dexterous hand capabilities, potentially accelerating industry advancements [20][21]. Additional Insights - **Incremental Development**: The industry is expected to see a shift in capital and engineering focus towards dexterous hands, indicating a recognition of manipulation as a key barrier to adoption [18][20]. - **Diverse Technology Paths**: The coexistence of multiple hardware solutions is likely, as each has distinct mechanical characteristics suited for different applications [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state and future of humanoid robotics, particularly focusing on dexterous hands and their implications for the industry.

Core Viewpoint - Infineon Technologies is strategically positioned to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the market for microchips utilized in humanoid robots [1] Company Summary - The CEO of Infineon Technologies expressed confidence in the company's readiness to benefit from future market trends in semiconductor technology [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 2025 revenues were $80.6 million, up 11% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, reflecting solid execution across the portfolio [3][4] - Adjusted gross margin for Q4 was 37%, down from 40.5% in Q3, impacted by $3 million of headwinds [16][18] - GAAP net loss was $1.9 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.07 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Sensors Segment**: Q4 revenue declined 4% sequentially but was up 18% year-over-year; bookings rose 4% sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.15 [5][6] - **Weighing Solutions Segment**: Q4 sales increased 7.8% year-over-year, with orders up 14.9% sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.02 [8][9] - **Measurement Systems Segment**: Q4 revenue was $22.4 million, up 9% sequentially and 6% year-over-year; however, orders declined 16% from Q3, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.81 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Sensors orders were up 18% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, with backlog at the highest level since Q3 2023 [6] - Weighing Solutions showed strength in precision ag, medical, construction, and e-bike applications, while transportation orders increased for onboard weighing systems [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on accelerating growth through the creation of new senior executive positions, including the Office of the Chief Business and Product Officer and the Office of Chief Operating Officer [11][12] - Aiming for a mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, with a target of $45 million from business development initiatives, representing a 20% increase from 2025 [15][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding recovery in the marketplace, particularly in the Sensors segment, with expectations for higher revenues in Q2 [22][23] - The company anticipates improved gross margins moving into Q1 2026, as identified one-time impacts are not expected to persist [28] Other Important Information - The company generated adjusted free cash flow of $1.3 million in Q4, down from $7.4 million in Q3 [18] - The cash position at the end of Q4 was $87.4 million, with long-term debt of $20.6 million, providing ample liquidity for business requirements and potential M&A [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue guidance and its bias towards the sensor segment - Management is optimistic about recovery signs in the marketplace, particularly in Sensors, and expects higher revenues in the second half of the year [22][23] Question: Gross margin impact and lingering effects - Management identified a $3 million unusual effect in Q4, which is not expected to persist into Q1 2026, leading to improved gross margins [24][28] Question: Organizational changes and financial targets - The new organizational structure aims to standardize processes and improve operational efficiency, with expected cost savings of $6 million in 2026 [39][40] Question: Details on new humanoid development customer - The new customer is smaller and still in the design stage, with no clear timeline for scaling up production [42] Question: Discussions with other humanoid developers - Management is in dialogue with multiple humanoid manufacturers and hopes to report prototype orders from them in the future [43]

Group 1 - Tesla's sales of China-made electric vehicles in January increased by more than 9% year-over-year, indicating a strong start to 2026 [1] - The total sales of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in January were not specified but contributed to the overall positive sales performance [1] - CEO Elon Musk appears to be shifting focus from electric vehicle manufacturing to autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots [1] Group 2 - Tesla's stock experienced a slight increase following Musk's confirmation of a merger between SpaceX and xAI [1] - Analysts have cut profit predictions for Tesla amid concerns over Musk's significant spending plans and a reduction in the number of EV models [1] - Tesla's direct competitor in China reported strong sales, but the overall domestic sales environment remains challenging [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's merger of SpaceX with his AI venture xAI indicates a significant shift in his corporate strategy, reflecting challenges faced by Tesla and the potential for growth in SpaceX and xAI [1][2]. Tesla Overview - Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.58 trillion, which is 26% higher than SpaceX's private valuation of $1.25 trillion [2]. - Tesla's stock has declined by 6% in 2026, with a reported 16% year-over-year drop in vehicle deliveries and a 3% decline in total revenue for 2025, marking its first annual revenue decline [3][4]. - The company is facing increased competition in the electric vehicle market, particularly from manufacturers in China and Europe, and has been impacted by the removal of federal tax incentives for EV purchases in the U.S. [4]. Strategic Shifts - Musk is redirecting Tesla's focus towards Robotaxi services and Optimus humanoid robots, despite facing significant competition in these areas [5]. - Production of Tesla's Model S and X vehicles is being halted as the company reallocates resources to new priorities, with these models contributing less than 3% to annual deliveries in 2025 [5]. SpaceX Overview - SpaceX is a leading provider of orbital launch services, with contracts worth billions from NASA and the Department of Defense, and operates the Starlink satellite internet service with over 9,000 satellites and approximately 9 million customers [7]. - The merger values SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, with SpaceX reportedly pursuing an IPO this year [8]. Financial Performance - SpaceX generated about $15 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit last year, while Tesla reported nearly $95 billion in sales and adjusted earnings of about $5 billion for 2025, indicating a steep decline from the previous year [17]. - Tesla has committed to investing $2 billion in xAI, which is now considered a SpaceX investment following the merger [18]. Regulatory and Legal Challenges - xAI is under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for issues related to its Grok image generator, which has raised concerns about the creation of explicit deepfake images [13]. - The merger may introduce legal and regulatory risks that could affect SpaceX shareholders, as the intertwined nature of Musk's companies could impact their regulatory standing [12][14].