Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company is optimistic about the overseas approval prospects of Ivosidenib (依沃西) for treating 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC, as the treatment options are limited and the efficacy in the HARMONi study is significantly better than current chemotherapy regimens [1] - The company has initiated multiple Phase III studies in mainland China this year, covering large patient populations with limited treatment options, including first-line colorectal cancer, first-line pancreatic cancer, and PD-(L)1 resistant NSCLC [1] - The broad indication layout and the high efficacy with low toxicity characteristics of Ivosidenib are gradually clarifying its path to becoming a new generation I/O cornerstone drug, potentially replacing PD-(L)1 single-target therapies [1] Group 2 - The company has recently received approval for the third indication of Cadonilimab (卡度尼利) for first-line cervical cancer in the entire population and is expected to participate in the medical insurance negotiations in the second half of the year [2] - An overseas Phase II study of Cadonilimab in combination with Lenvatinib for second-line liver cancer, following treatment failure with Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab, is being initiated [2] - The differentiated ADC development strategy is progressing well, with the first ADC (HER3) entering clinical trials and the first bispecific ADC AK146D1 completing its first patient enrollment [2] Group 3 - Key short-term catalysts include: 1) Overseas submission and complete data release of the HARMONi study; 2) Presentation of the AK112-306 study (head-to-head against Tremelimumab for 1L squamous NSCLC) at ESMO 2025; 3) Results of medical insurance negotiations for multiple products/indications in Q4 2025, including Cadonilimab for first-line gastric cancer and cervical cancer, Ivosidenib for first-line PD-L1+ NSCLC, AK101, and AK102; 4) Advancement of more early-stage projects such as ADCs [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 康方生物 (9926 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 140.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 108.30 [2][12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing multiple indications for its drug 依沃西, with a significant focus on I/O and ADC strategies, which are expected to differentiate its offerings in the market [2][7]. - The report highlights the promising overseas approval prospects for 依沃西, particularly for its application in treating 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC, as the efficacy shown in the HARMONi study surpasses existing chemotherapy options [7]. - 康方生物 is also initiating several Phase III studies in mainland China for various cancers, indicating a broadening of its therapeutic scope [7]. - The report anticipates a peak sales adjustment for 依沃西 in China to RMB 7.1 billion [7]. - The company is starting overseas development for 卡度尼利, with a recent approval for a new indication in first-line cervical cancer, and plans for a Phase II study in second-line liver cancer [7]. - The ADC development strategy is gaining traction, with the first ADC (HER3) entering clinical trials and the first bispecific ADC AK146D1 completing patient enrollment [7]. - The report emphasizes the rich pipeline of catalysts, including upcoming data releases and negotiations for multiple products in Q4 2025 [7]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at RMB 3,506 million, with a significant growth trajectory expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 8,053 million by 2027 [6][15]. - The net profit is projected to recover to RMB 402 million in 2025, with further increases anticipated in the following years [6][15]. - The report notes a substantial year-to-date stock price increase of 78.42% [4]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 97.08 billion [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of RMB 114,241 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 140.00 [9]. - The report reflects adjustments in revenue forecasts, with a decrease in expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [8]. Market Position - 康方生物 is positioned within the biotechnology sector, focusing on innovative therapies that leverage both I/O and ADC technologies, aiming to capture new market opportunities [2][12]. - The report suggests that the company’s strategic initiatives and product pipeline could lead to sustained long-term value creation [7].