Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yaoke Ankang experienced a dramatic rise and fall within a short period, reflecting the volatile nature of the market and investor sentiment towards innovative drug companies in Hong Kong [3][4]. Company Overview - Yaoke Ankang, a company focused on the drug Tinengotinib, saw its stock price surge by 10 times after its IPO three months ago, reaching a market capitalization close to 270 billion HKD [3][6]. - The company was included in the national index for innovative drugs, which attracted significant passive investment, leading to a rapid increase in stock price [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The stock price increased by 447% from September 8 to September 15, 2023, driven by positive clinical trial news and inclusion in major indices, but then plummeted by 53.73% on September 16 [3][8]. - The limited free float of shares (approximately 549,000 shares, or 1.38% of total shares) contributed to the stock's volatility, as it made the price more susceptible to market sentiment [3][6]. Investor Behavior - Investors in the secondary market tend to focus on short-term gains, often leading to speculative trading behaviors such as "chasing highs" and "panic selling" [3][7]. - The influx of mainland capital through the Hong Kong Stock Connect has intensified speculative trading in the innovative drug sector, which may undermine long-term investment confidence [9]. Future Outlook - The market's current enthusiasm for innovative drugs presents a unique opportunity for companies to secure funding for research and development, but it also raises concerns about the sustainability of such valuations [9][11]. - Yaoke Ankang's reliance on a single core asset and the timing of its IPO may hinder its ability to maintain a stable market valuation without significant clinical milestones [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for Kangfang Biopharma, projecting revenue growth from 34.19 billion to 85.77 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, supported by strong commercialization and clear overseas clinical data [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Kangfang Biopharma achieved revenue of 14.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.75%, with product sales revenue reaching 14.01 billion CNY, up 49.20% [2] - R&D expenses were 7.31 billion CNY, increasing by 23.06%, while sales and management expenses rose by 29.84% and 34.00%, respectively [1] Group 2: Product Development and Clinical Trials - The commercialization of core dual antibodies, Kadunil and Ivosidenib, is driving revenue growth, with expectations for further performance increases as new products and indications are approved [2] - Ivosidenib's OS data presented at the WCLC 2025 showed significant improvement, with an OSHR of 0.70 in the North American population, indicating a strong survival benefit [2][3] - Ongoing clinical trials for Ivosidenib include various cancer types, with a focus on expanding indications, which could enhance its market potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Kangfang Biopharma (09926), projecting significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong commercialization and a promising innovation pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Kangfang Biopharma reported a revenue of 14.12 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.75% [1][2]. - The sales revenue from product sales reached 14.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 49.20% year-on-year growth [2]. - R&D expenses were 7.31 billion yuan, up 23.06% year-on-year, while sales and management expenses increased by 29.84% and 34.00%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Clinical Trials - The commercialization of core dual antibodies, Kadunil and Ivosidenib, is driving revenue growth, with expectations for further performance improvements as new products and indications are approved [2]. - The WCLC 2025 conference showcased updated overall survival (OS) data for Ivosidenib, indicating a significant improvement in survival benefits, particularly in the North American population [2][3]. - Ongoing clinical trials for Ivosidenib include various cancer types, with a focus on expanding its indications, which could enhance its market potential [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to smooth commercialization progress and further updates on HARMONi data [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.412 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -570 million RMB [7]. - The commercialization of key products, namely Cadonilimab and Ivosidenib, has driven revenue growth, with product sales revenue increasing by 49.20% year-on-year [7]. - The HARMONi study presented at the WCLC 2025 conference showed improved overall survival (OS) data, with an OS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.78, indicating significant survival benefits [7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 34.19 billion RMB, 55.98 billion RMB, and 85.77 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 4,526 million RMB, 2,124 million RMB, 3,419 million RMB, 5,598 million RMB, and 8,577 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 440.3%, -53.1%, 61.0%, 63.7%, and 53.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2,028.30 million RMB in 2023, -514.52 million RMB in 2024, -29.64 million RMB in 2025E, 586.11 million RMB in 2026E, and 1,485.85 million RMB in 2027E, with growth rates of 273.6%, -125.4%, 94.2%, 2077.2%, and 153.5% respectively [6]. - The company's reasonable equity value is estimated at 187.5 billion HKD, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 7.06% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China is experiencing a recovery, with over half of the companies having commercialized innovative drugs, despite many still not being profitable [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the first half of 2025, 70 innovative drug companies have been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the STAR Market, with 15 companies achieving profitability, including notable firms like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [2][19]. - Among the 70 companies, 55 are still operating at a loss, representing approximately 79% of the total [6][19]. - Of the 55 unprofitable companies, 28 have commercialized innovative drug products, indicating that profitability may be achievable for some in the near future [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - Only 3 companies are generating profits primarily from innovative drug sales, namely BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Elysium [23][22]. - The majority of profitable companies rely on other revenue streams, such as biosimilars or licensing agreements, rather than solely on innovative drug sales [23][25]. - For instance, Elysium achieved significant revenue from its lung cancer drug, while companies like WuXi Biologics and Hengrui Medicine have seen profitability through biosimilars and licensing deals [24][25]. Group 3: Company Performance - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 175.18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, largely driven by its innovative drugs [28]. - Innovent Biologics achieved revenue of 59.53 billion yuan, with 88.76% coming from product sales, reflecting strong performance in the oncology sector [29]. - Elysium's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 23.73 billion yuan, with over 99% derived from innovative drug sales, showcasing its successful product launch [23][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a stock market recovery in 2025, with 15 companies achieving profitability, although only 3 are profitable through innovative drug sales [2][3][4]. Group 1: Profitability and Performance - In the first half of 2025, 15 companies reported profitability, with 6 achieving their first profit [2][4]. - Among the 70 innovative drug companies listed, 55 remain unprofitable, accounting for approximately 79% [3][4]. - Of the 55 unprofitable companies, 28 have commercialized innovative drug products, indicating potential for future profitability [7][8]. Group 2: Revenue Sources - Only 3 companies, including Baijie Shenzhou and Xinda Biopharmaceuticals, achieved profitability primarily through innovative drug sales [12][15]. - Other profitable companies rely on alternative revenue sources, such as biosimilars or business development (BD) transactions [12][14]. - For instance, Ailisi's revenue in the first half of 2025 was largely driven by its self-developed lung cancer drug, achieving significant sales [12][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Baijie Shenzhou's total revenue reached 17.518 billion yuan, with a significant portion derived from overseas markets [16]. - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals reported revenue of 5.953 billion yuan, primarily from its oncology products, benefiting from strong market demand [17]. - The innovative drug market is characterized by long R&D cycles and high risks, making profitability a critical milestone for listed companies [4][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Kangfang Biotech (09926) achieved a revenue of 1.41 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% [1] - The sales of pharmaceuticals amounted to 1.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 49%, primarily due to the inclusion of Cadonilimab and Ivosidenib in the national medical insurance catalog [1] - The target price for Kangfang Biotech has been raised to 185 HKD, with a reiterated "buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the expansion of indications for AK104 and AK112, particularly AK112, which is currently being tested in five Phase III clinical trials for cold tumors [1] - The peak sales forecast for AK104 and AK112 in China has been increased to 4.5 billion RMB and 8 billion RMB, respectively [1] - The overseas risk-adjusted peak sales forecast for AK112 has been raised to 7 billion USD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that CStone Pharmaceuticals (09926) reported a revenue of 1.41 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% [1] - The sales of pharmaceuticals amounted to 1.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 49%, primarily driven by the inclusion of Cadonilimab and Ivosidenib in the national medical insurance catalog [1] - The target price for CStone Pharmaceuticals has been raised to 185 HKD, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the peak sales forecasts for AK104 and AK112 in China have been increased to 4.5 billion RMB and 8 billion RMB, respectively, due to the expansion of indications, particularly for AK112 into cold tumors [1] - Currently, there are five Phase III clinical trials for first-line treatments ongoing for AK112 [1] - The overseas risk-adjusted peak sales forecast for AK112 has been raised to 7 billion USD [1]

[Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 研究报告 Research Report 29 Aug 2025 康方生物 Akeso (9926 HK) 25H1：HARMONi-A 获统计学显著获益结果，建议关注 2025 WCLC 数据催化 25H1: The HARMONi-A study achieved statistically significant benefits; we recommend paying attention to the data catalyst at the 2025 WCLC 公司 25H1 实现营收 14.1 亿元（+37.8%），其中商业化收入 14.0 亿 元（+49.2%），商业化授权收入 0.1 亿元。毛利 11.2 亿元 （+18.8%），毛利率 79.4%（-12.6pcts），商业化毛利 11.1 亿元 （+29.5%）。研发开支 7.3 亿元（+23.0%），研发费用率 51.8% （-6.2pcts），销售费用 6.7 亿元（+29.8%），销售费用率 47.5% （-2.9pcts），行政开支 1.3 亿元（+34.4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 205.69 [1][5][11] Core Views - The company reported significant revenue growth in 1H25, with total revenue reaching CNY 1.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, driven primarily by product sales which grew by 49.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is benefiting from the clinical and statistical significance of overall survival (OS) in the HARMONi-A study for its product, Ivoris monoclonal antibody, which solidifies its position as a best-in-class (BIC) treatment [2][3] - The company is expanding its clinical trials both domestically and globally, with 10 domestic and 3 global clinical trials for Ivoris monoclonal antibody underway, indicating a strong pipeline and potential for market expansion [2][3] Revenue and Sales Growth - In 1H25, the company's product revenue was CNY 1.40 billion, reflecting a 49.2% year-on-year increase, supported by the inclusion of Ivoris monoclonal antibody in the medical insurance system, which has rapidly increased its market penetration [4] - The company expects continued strong momentum in its core products, particularly with Ivoris monoclonal antibody and Cardunil monoclonal antibody, which have received medical insurance coverage [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 0.76 billion, CNY 6.62 billion, and CNY 14.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on a DCF valuation method with a target price of HKD 205.69 [5][11] - The projected revenue for 2025 is CNY 3.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 57.62% [10][19]