Core Insights - The overseas short drama market experienced a significant increase in downloads in September 2025, with total downloads reaching approximately 131.1 million, a rise of over 9% compared to August. However, in-app purchase revenue saw a slight decline of about 3%, totaling approximately $190.2 million [1][4][12]. Download and Revenue Overview - The overseas micro short drama market saw a notable increase in downloads, with over 10 million additional downloads in September, marking a 9% month-over-month increase. In contrast, revenue experienced a minor decline, which is considered a normal market fluctuation [4][5]. - The top three apps by downloads in September were ReelShort, DramaBox, and Kuku TV, each surpassing 10 million downloads. Notably, Story TV and FlareFlow showed significant growth, with Story TV's downloads soaring to 8.17 million, and FlareFlow's increasing by nearly 44% [5][9]. Regional Analysis - The United States accounted for nearly half of the estimated revenue in the overseas micro short drama market, with Europe and Southeast Asia following closely, each surpassing $100 million in estimated revenue [12][13]. - In terms of downloads, Latin America and Southeast Asia led the way, each exceeding 300 million downloads, while the Middle East, the U.S., Europe, and Africa also recorded over 5 million downloads [15]. Advertising and App Insights - The number of advertising materials in the overseas micro short drama market reached 1.59 million in September, an 11% increase from the previous month, marking a continuous growth trend for seven consecutive months [18][22]. - A total of 534 micro short drama apps were in circulation, with 54 new apps added in September. The number of IAA and IAP apps increased, indicating a shift towards free models in the market [22][25]. Content Trends - Emotional themes remained dominant, accounting for 34% of total material, followed by urban themes at 28% and revenge themes at 11%. The overall distribution of content themes remained stable compared to the previous month [29][32]. - English-language materials led the advertising efforts, with 676,000 materials, making up nearly 47% of the total. Spanish was the second most prevalent language, with a significant number of materials also in Portuguese, French, and German [33][35]. Popular Titles and Rankings - The top-ranking micro short dramas in September included "The Missing Master Chef," which achieved a heat value of 21.08 million, and "I Became My CEO's Darkest Secret," with a heat value of 16.68 million [53][58]. - The Portuguese micro short drama market was dominated by local productions, with the top three titles being "30 Anos Congelada, 3 Irmãos se Arrependem," "Amor Inesperado," and "Quadrigêmeos do Tio do Meu Ex," all showcasing strong viewer engagement [67][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The overseas short drama market is experiencing explosive growth, with in-app revenue expected to rise from less than $100 million in 2023 to $1.5 billion in 2024, and projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2025 [3][11] - Short dramas are not merely substitutes for long videos but represent a new content form that leverages internet algorithms and impulse payment logic, creating a unique content ecosystem [3][19] - The competitive landscape for overseas short dramas is more favorable than in the domestic market, with Chinese companies leading the charge [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Size - The overseas short drama market is projected to exceed $24.2 billion in long-term potential, surpassing overseas movie box office revenues [11][12] - The market is expected to grow significantly, with quarterly growth rates of 20% anticipated for 2025 [12] 2. Demand Side Growth - Demand growth is driven by user expansion, market penetration, and the promotion of the IAA (In-App Advertising) model [30] - Platforms are exploring male-oriented content to tap into a previously underdeveloped market segment [31] 3. Supply Side Challenges - There is a significant imbalance between the vast market demand and the scarcity of effective production capacity [3][6] - The industry is addressing these challenges by recruiting talent from Hollywood and exploring cost-effective production models [3][6] 4. Competitive Landscape - The overseas short drama market is characterized by a more open and market-driven environment compared to the domestic market [4] - Key players include ReelShort and DramaBox, each adopting different strategies to capture market share [4] 5. Profitability Outlook - The business model is shifting from "burning money for growth" to achieving stable profit margins, with long-term net profit margins expected to stabilize between 15% and 20% [6][11] - The cost structure is dominated by user acquisition costs, which currently account for about 50% of revenue [6] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industry, such as Chinese Online, Kunlun Wanwei, and Red Child City Technology, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of overseas short dramas [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The paid mini-program short drama model is experiencing a rapid decline, with major platforms like Kuaishou shutting down related services, indicating a shift in the industry towards different business models [2][5]. Summary by Sections Paid Mini-Program Short Dramas - Kuaishou will shut down its short drama mini-program on June 17, 2024, confirming the information from industry insiders [2]. - The paid mini-program short drama, known as IAP (In-App Purchase), was a mainstream model in the early stages of short drama development, allowing users to watch dramas without downloading apps [2]. - This model involved significant investment in advertising to attract viewers, but it also led to regulatory issues due to the potential for unregulated content [2]. Shift in Business Models - Since 2024, the short drama market has seen a significant shift from the IAP model to the IAA (In-App Advertising) model, which allows users to watch dramas for free while generating revenue through advertisements [3]. - According to a report by the China Internet Audio-Visual Association, the market share of the IAA model rose from 11% in January 2024 to 50% by October 2024, surpassing the IAP model [3]. - ByteDance's Hongguo short drama, launched in April 2023, has become a major player in the IAA model, achieving 173 million monthly active users by March 2024, a 220.28% year-on-year increase [3]. Kuaishou's Strategic Shift - Kuaishou, initially successful with the IAP model, is now adjusting its strategy by moving away from mini-programs to focus on native accounts on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [4]. - Native accounts allow users to watch short dramas directly without redirection, facilitating better fan engagement and private domain operations [4]. Regulatory Environment - The short drama industry is entering a "strict regulation" era, with new policies from the National Radio and Television Administration aimed at promoting healthy development [6]. - Recent actions by Kuaishou include removing over 100 illegal short dramas and reporting serious violations to a blacklist, indicating a commitment to stricter content oversight [6].