行 华福证券 潮玩：LABUBU 二手价格基本企稳，关注暑期旺季带动板块营收预期 提升。 行业监管风险、二手市场价格波动等因素共振导致估值回调：《人 民日报》点名盲盒盲卡乱象引发市场担忧，泡泡玛特官方大量补货后 本周二手交易价格基本企稳，泡泡玛特周波动幅度 7.6%，布鲁可为 -3.9%。根据 Google Trend 近 90 日搜索指数，当前 LABUBU 热度已超 过任天堂 Switch2 和 LOL（英雄联盟），在流行文化中表现强势。长 期看好中国软实力提升带动文化消费品出海，海外扩张与新兴市场消 费升级仍存较大赛道红利。 黄金珠宝：建议关注终端店效高增及门店拓展空间大的品牌。 金价持续上涨，一口价产品增长表现较好，面向高端客群及年轻 客群的品牌终端店效有望持续高增且门店拓展空间大，建议关注潮宏 基、莱绅通灵、老铺黄金；传统黄金批发品牌此前多季度出货下滑， 消费者逐步接受高金价后克重黄金消费量有望企稳，终端库存消化后 预计 Q2 陆续补货，主要品牌出货有望改善，建议关注老凤祥、周大福、 周大生；北京地区金银珠宝社零数据高增，建议关注北京区域龙头且 纯直营模式的菜百股份。 华福证券 社会服务 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak season for tourism and cultural activities, highlighting the potential of combining IP with scenic spots and the ongoing popularity of the "Su Chao" theme in Jiangsu [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on brands with high terminal store efficiency and significant expansion potential in the gold and jewelry sector, as well as the growing demand for personal care products driven by innovation and emotional branding [5][6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to see market share gains among leading institutions due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The tourism market in Hainan is thriving, with a 62% year-on-year increase in overall bookings for the summer of 2025 [11] - China Duty Free Group is expanding its presence in Macau with a new store opening [11] - Investment suggestions include focusing on duty-free operators and their city store openings, particularly China Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Lingnan Holdings [11] 2. Trendy Toys - The trendy toy sector is experiencing short-term volatility due to regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the secondary market, but long-term growth is anticipated as China's cultural products expand internationally [19] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic online sales of trendy toys reached approximately 2.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61% [19][22] 3. Hotels - The hotel sector is seeing fluctuations in RevPAR due to the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a notable year-on-year decline in performance metrics [36] - Supply growth remains stable, primarily driven by lower-tier markets [40] 4. Education - The number of high school graduates is expected to remain high, maintaining competitive pressure in the education sector [42] - The number of college graduates is projected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, increasing demand for vocational training and exam preparation services [45] 5. Medical Beauty and Cosmetics - The medical beauty sector is recovering, with a focus on product innovation and market share expansion among leading companies [47] - The beauty sector is expected to see a rebound in sales during the 618 shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [53][58] 6. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector increasing by 21.8% year-on-year in May 2025 [82] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong terminal store performance and expansion potential, such as Chao Hong Ji and Lai Shen Tong Ling [86]