转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月28日电（葛佳明） 作为备受市场关注的事件，美联储将在北京时间1月29日（周四） 凌晨公布1月议息会议决定。目前市场普遍预期，美联储1月料"按兵不动"，将基准利率维持在 3.50%-3.75%的区间水平，此次会议不会发布新的经济和政策预期，市场将重点关注美联储主席鲍威尔 对后续利率路径的表述，在美联储深陷政治漩涡之际，美联储独立性、新主席人选以及鲍威尔去留或成 为市场真正的焦点。 降息料按下暂停键 在进入美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议静默期前，多数美联储官员表示，当前的政策立场"处 于良好位置""既不急于进一步宽松，也不需要立即转向"，释放观望信号。 12月议息会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势无明显变化，两者均趋于稳定，就业增 长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业率回落至4.4%。美联储锚定2%通胀目 标所参考的个人消费支出价格指数PCE去年11月录得 2.8%，略高于市场预期。 华泰证券表示，近期数据显示经济增长韧性较强，美国就业市场下行风险可控，2025年12月以来首次申 请失业金人数大多好于预期，2025年三季度GDP等数据明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a dichotomy in the current economic landscape, where the AI sector thrives while the broader economy struggles, leading to a "two worlds" scenario where wealth is concentrated among high-income groups and capital-rich companies, leaving ordinary citizens facing stagnation or decline in wealth [1][5]. Market Status - The AI sector has attracted unprecedented investment due to optimistic expectations of future demand, particularly following the launch of ChatGPT, which has initiated a prolonged upward trend for tech companies [4]. - Despite strong GDP growth figures, the underlying economic performance is uneven, heavily reliant on AI investments and infrastructure spending, with many indicators showing stagnation when these factors are excluded [5]. - The K-shaped economic structure indicates that while AI is booming, many individuals are experiencing job insecurity and financial distress, as evidenced by rising unemployment rates and low consumer confidence [5]. 2026 Outlook - Analysts predict a cooling of the AI investment frenzy by 2026, with a potential recovery in consumer spending as employment conditions improve [6][8]. - The implementation of tax reduction policies under the "Good Bill" is expected to provide short-term relief to consumers, potentially boosting disposable income and consumption in 2026 [8]. - Overall, analysts foresee a mixed impact on the S&P 500 index, with consumer spending recovery benefiting certain sectors while tech sector weakness may offset these gains [9]. Earnings and Valuation - Analysts project a 14% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share from December 2025 to December 2026, but this estimate has been revised down to about 10% due to pessimistic views on the AI sector [9]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is around 25, which may decline to 22 or lower if large tech companies experience slower profit growth and valuation contraction [9][10]. - The combination of earnings growth and valuation contraction is expected to significantly offset any positive impacts from earnings increases, leading to a "hold" rating for major indices like the S&P 500 [10]. Strategic Recommendations - Given the anticipated market shifts, analysts recommend reallocating investments from high-priced tech stocks to undervalued sectors such as retail and dining, which are expected to outperform in 2026 [14].