免责声明: | LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/09 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷 | CP预测合 | 华东液化 | 纸面进口 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 山东液化气 | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 主力基差 | 气 | 南 | 本 | 现货 | 同价 | 利润 | 2025/04/2 | 5090 | 4925 | 4830 | 618 | 512 | 98 | 575 | 4920 | 7900 | -57 | 626 | | 9 | 2025/04/3 | 5090 | 4925 | 4830 | 635 | 504 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations. Although there may be short - term post - holiday restocking demand, the overall fundamentals are weak. High arrival volumes have led to significant port inventory accumulation, and factory inventories have slightly decreased. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline, and chemical demand is generally expected to be mediocre. The 5 - month CP official price is higher than market expectations, which provides some support for propane prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Data - From April 28 to May 7, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, on May 7, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong civil LPG increased by 10 to 4780, the price of East China civil LPG increased by 3 to 4938, and the price of South China civil LPG remained flat at 5230. The price of imported gas in East China remained flat at 5153, and that in South China decreased by 20 to 5220. The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong decreased by 20 to 4820 [1]. Market Conditions - During the May Day holiday, the decline of the foreign LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official price of May CP was higher than market expectations, and the increase in CP discount drove up the import cost, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes have led to significant port inventory accumulation, while factory inventories have slightly decreased due to upstream inventory clearance before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand is average. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline gradually, especially the arrival of US goods. Upstream refinery outflows are expected to be stable in the short term, with production increases expected in June. Chemical demand is expected to be mediocre, with weak demand for alkylated oil and limited willingness of factories to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly overall due to high supply. Some PDH factories may reduce their loads due to raw material procurement issues [1]. Futures Market - The weakening of the PG main contract was driven by long - position liquidation, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 374, and the 06 - 07 spread of PG was 86. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1].

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