不过，"进入1月中下旬后，市场转弱并出现一定程度下行，"吴国栋补充说，这主要是因为一方面前期 价格偏高，下游转入观望消耗库存；另一方面部分炼厂增量，且因为工民价差（醚后碳四与民用气价 差）过大，部分炼厂出现工转民增加民用气供应。 展望2月LPG市场，吴国栋认为，预计市场或继续反应国际高进口成本以及春节前后市场买卖博弈逻 辑，呈现先涨后跌行情。其中2月CP或维持强势，进口成本高企，2月初LPG市场或再度上涨，但持续 存在的工民价差，或致使工转民持续，炼厂供应相对宽松，且春节后市场逐步向淡季转移，因此市场或 逐步转弱。 新华财经北京1月28日电 1月国内民用LPG市场呈先涨后跌走势，整体较为强势。截至1月27日，国内民 用LPG月均价为4444元／吨，环比上涨2.63%。 据卓创资讯分析师吴国栋介绍，1月LPG价格上涨主要受两方面因素驱动：一是1月沙特CP价格上涨推 高了进口成本且国际市场持续紧张，价格延续强势表现，二是部分老龄船卸货严重推迟，且部分码头放 缓采购，进口量整体不大。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak fluctuations due to the overall weak fundamentals, despite the possible short - term post - holiday restocking demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Changes - In the civil gas market on Thursday, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4780, in East China at 4938, and in South China decreased by 50 to 5180. For imported gas, prices in East China dropped by 10 to 5143, and in South China by 20 to 5200. The price of ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4820, with the lowest price being the civil gas in Shandong at 4780. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 06 contract at 381 and the 06 - 07 month spread at 95. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1] Weekly View - During the May Day holiday, the decline in the overseas LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Before the holiday, the official prices of May CP were released, with propane and butane decreasing by 5/15 to 610/590 US dollars respectively, higher than market expectations. The increase in CP discount drove up the import cost, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil gas prices remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, high arrival volumes led to significant port inventory accumulation. Factory inventories decreased slightly as upstream companies reduced prices to clear inventory before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand was average. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline gradually, especially the arrival of US cargoes. Upstream refinery supplies are expected to be stable in the short term, with potential increases in June due to the start - up of Guangxi Beihai and CNOOC Huizhou Phase II at the end of the month. Chemical demand is expected to be average. The demand for alkylated oil is weak, and factories have limited willingness to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly due to high supply. Some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement issues [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations. Although there may be short - term post - holiday restocking demand, the overall fundamentals are weak. High arrival volumes have led to significant port inventory accumulation, and factory inventories have slightly decreased. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline, and chemical demand is generally expected to be mediocre. The 5 - month CP official price is higher than market expectations, which provides some support for propane prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Data - From April 28 to May 7, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, on May 7, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong civil LPG increased by 10 to 4780, the price of East China civil LPG increased by 3 to 4938, and the price of South China civil LPG remained flat at 5230. The price of imported gas in East China remained flat at 5153, and that in South China decreased by 20 to 5220. The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong decreased by 20 to 4820 [1]. Market Conditions - During the May Day holiday, the decline of the foreign LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official price of May CP was higher than market expectations, and the increase in CP discount drove up the import cost, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes have led to significant port inventory accumulation, while factory inventories have slightly decreased due to upstream inventory clearance before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand is average. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline gradually, especially the arrival of US goods. Upstream refinery outflows are expected to be stable in the short term, with production increases expected in June. Chemical demand is expected to be mediocre, with weak demand for alkylated oil and limited willingness of factories to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly overall due to high supply. Some PDH factories may reduce their loads due to raw material procurement issues [1]. Futures Market - The weakening of the PG main contract was driven by long - position liquidation, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 374, and the 06 - 07 spread of PG was 86. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations. During the May Day holiday, the decline of the overseas LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official prices of May CP were released before the holiday, with propane and butane down 5/15 to 610/590 US dollars respectively, higher than market expectations. The increase in CP discount drove up import costs, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to significant port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly due to upstream inventory clearance before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand was average. After the holiday, arrivals are expected to decline gradually, especially US - sourced arrivals. Upstream refinery outflows are expected to be stable in the short term, with an expected increase in June. Chemical demand is expected to be average. The demand for alkylated oil is weak, and factories are not very willing to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has some short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly due to oversupply. Some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement issues. Although there may be short - term restocking demand after the holiday, the LPG market is expected to be weak overall [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Data - From April 25, 2025, to May 6, 2025, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the price of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil all showed certain fluctuations. For example, on May 6, South China LPG increased by 50 to 5230, East China LPG increased by 10 to 4935, and Shandong LPG decreased by 60 to 4770. The paper import profit and the main basis also changed. The daily change on May 6 showed that East China LPG increased by 10, Shandong LPG decreased by 60, propane CIF Japan decreased by 22, MB propane spot decreased by 17, CP forecast contract price increased by 7, Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130, and Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 100. The main basis decreased by 102 [1] - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, Shandong decreased by 50 to 4770, East China increased by 10 to 4935, and South China increased by 50 to 5230. For imported gas, East China decreased by 5 to 5153, and South China remained unchanged at 5240. Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130 to 4840. The lowest price was Shandong civil LPG at 4770. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 323, and the PG06 - 07 spread was 97, basically unchanged. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]