Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with supply contraction and weak demand in the short - term, but with long - term positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined with a weekly change of - 1.43% and an amplitude of 1.59%, closing at 85,660 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials regarding the October rate cut [4] - **Domestic Situation**: China's new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate spot TC index is at a low negative level, indicating tight raw material supply. Due to tight copper ore supply and concentrated smelter maintenance, refined copper supply may contract. Downstream开工率 only rebounded slightly after falling in October, and the high copper price made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in only a small increase in spot market trading activity and a slight reduction in social inventory [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of November 21, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 155 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 85,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 190,218 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,075 lots [11] - **Spot Prices**: As of November 21, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 85,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton [13] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of November 21, 2025, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 23,557 lots, an increase of 148 lots from last week [22] 3. Option Market - As of November 21, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was close to the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.781, a decrease of 0.0099 from last week [27] 4. Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area weakened, and the crude copper processing fee remained flat. As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the southern crude copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons from September, a decline of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,687.82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 765.37 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from September, a decline of 4.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.89%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 323,144.718 tons, a decrease of 50,930.86 tons from September, a decline of 13.62%, and a year - on - year decline of 16.32%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was 567.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 771.88 yuan/ton [51] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory increased by 21,700 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 12,239 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 11,026 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 192,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Product Production and Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a decrease of 228,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.22%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.2%, and a year - on - year decline of 13.73% [60] - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.63% and 9.94% respectively. As of October 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 2%, - 13.5%, - 6%, - 2.7%, and 1.7% respectively [64] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of October 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid stable economic conditions and external uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has remained stable for two consecutive months after a reduction of 10 basis points in May, reflecting a period of observation for the effects of previous monetary easing measures [1][2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has become the new pricing anchor for LPR [2][4]. - The commercial banks are currently facing low net interest margins, which diminishes their motivation to lower the LPR further [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, contributing to a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which supports the stability of monetary policy [2][6]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that there is still potential for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year, particularly if external economic conditions remain uncertain and domestic demand needs to be stimulated [9][10]. - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments is anticipated towards the end of Q3 or Q4, as the PBOC aims to balance supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [11][12].