M1与PPI关系

Search documents
环球市场动态:当前M1改善指征PPI拐点大概率确认
citic securities· 2025-10-06 07:21
Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.9% to 45,769 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 0.54% to 27,140 points[3][15]. - In the U.S., the Dow Jones increased by 0.51% to 46,758 points, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.28% to 22,780 points, ending a five-day upward trend[8][7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 50, the weakest since 2020, indicating potential economic slowdown[5][8]. - The M1 money supply is expected to show resilience, suggesting a likely confirmation of the PPI turning point, with improved liquidity in certain sectors[5]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,920 per ounce, reflecting a 0.87% increase, while WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 1%[20][4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate surged by 1.27% to 149.31, influenced by political changes in Japan[20][21]. Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, seven out of eleven S&P sectors rose, with utilities and healthcare leading gains, both up over 1.1%[8]. - In Hong Kong, the technology sector faced declines, contributing to the overall market downturn, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.90%[10]. Key Corporate Developments - Nvidia's AI chip deal with the UAE faces delays, impacting its stock performance, which fell by 0.70%[7][10]. - Macau's visitor numbers during the National Day holiday are expected to increase by 5.9% year-on-year, with projected gaming revenue growth of 9% to MOP 22.6 billion[13].