总体市场呈现窄幅波动、震荡上行趋势，看好红利价值、高景气行业和 主题热点。具体包括港股高股息、非银金融、银行、有色金属、AI、新 能源、创新药、海南免税、核电与量子计算。 Q&A 当前 A 股市场的波动特点及未来走势如何？ 岁末年初，A 股投资的三条线索 20251224 摘要 A 股市场近期波动主要受外部因素驱动，如美股 AI 板块及日本央行政策， 但这些负面影响已减弱，为新一轮上涨创造机会。投资者情绪指数回升 至接近 80，预示市场进入窄幅震荡向上时期。 当前行情驱动力主要来自季节效应和春季行情预期，基本面和政策影响 有限。岁末年初可关注补涨品种和主题概念炒作，并提前布局春季行情， 多数投资者对此持乐观态度。 跨年行情预计持续至 1 月，或因业绩预告出现调整，2 月春节后两会前 可能再次迎来行情。市场普遍对春节后行情乐观，有望提前至 2 月启动。 投资首选红利价值方向，基于季节效应和统计规律，推荐港股高股息、 非银金融及银行板块，历史数据显示这些品种在 12 月下旬至 1 月中旬 表现较好。 提前布局春季行情，重点关注高景气行业，包括有色金属（相对于黄金 比价仍低）、AI（液冷、光通信）、新能源（储能、固 ...

近期红利板块事件催化增多。消息面上，先是中国神华日前发布重大资产重组报告，宣布拟以发行股份及支付现金方式收购控股股东国家能源 集团旗下12家核心企业股权，交易总对价达1335.98亿元，配套募集资金同步推进。 随后四川路桥发布公告称，中邮保险于2025年12月17日通过二级市场买入股票的方式增持公司11.43万股，占公司总股本的0.0013%。 根据媒体统计，今年以来险资在二级市场频频出手，截至12月中旬举牌次数已创下近十年新高，达到38次。从保险机构的重仓股情况来看，险 资仍然延续以往风格：持有较多银行股，并对基建、能源、物流等行业的个股较为青睐。 资金面上，高股息也成为资金年底配置选择。以中证红利ETF（515080）为例，上交所数据显示，近10日该ETF累计获超5亿元资金净申购； 最新基金规模超85亿元。 值得注意的是，中证红利ETF（515080）今年第四次分红仍在进行中，今日将迎来分红到账。本季度该ETF每十份分红0.2元，分红比例 1.26%。 展望后市，中信建投证券认为，短期A股波动主要受外部环境影响，如美股AI泡沫疑虑和日本央行加息，目前美股AI核心公司股价已经企稳， 日本央行加息落地后续影响 ...

展望后市，中信建投策略指出，短期A股波动主要受外部环境影响，如美股AI泡沫疑虑和日本央行加 息，目前美股AI核心公司股价已经企稳，日本央行加息落地后续影响有限，A股有望和全球股市一起共 振上行。岁末年初，A股行业配置关注三条线索：红利价值、布局景气、主题热点。行业重点关注新能 源（储能、固态电池）、创新药、银行等。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金。创业板新能源 指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏 （159368）高弹性，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025 年11月30日，规模达7.32亿元；成交额最大，近一月日均成交7275万元。其储能+固态电池占比近 90%，契合当下市场热点。 2025年12月22日，A股三大指数高开。创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）早盘直线拉升，最大涨幅为 1.78%。盘面上，迈为股份上涨6.74%，上能电气上涨6.29%，天华新能涨超6%，欣旺达、阳光电源等 涨超3%；截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.01%. Key sectors showing gains include commercial aerospace, optical modules, and Hainan free trade, while new retail, liquor, and weight loss drug sectors experienced declines [1] - Citic Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt asset allocation in a strengthening RMB environment. Key focus areas include sectors benefiting from short-term memory effects, profit margin changes, and policy shifts, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries [1] - Citic Securities identifies three lines of focus for investment: short-term memory-driven sectors, industries with high import dependency on raw materials and low export dependency, and sectors benefiting from potential monetary policy easing or relaxed foreign investment restrictions [1] Group 2 - Citic Jiantou reports that the A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, influenced by external factors like US AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes. Key investment themes include dividend value, cyclical layouts, and thematic hotspots [2] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high-dividend Hong Kong stocks, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banks [2] - Thematic hotspots include Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and winter tourism [2] Group 3 -招商证券 anticipates the onset of a cross-year market trend leading into spring, with signals indicating a classic "cross-year-spring" market is developing. Increased central budget investments are expected to accelerate, providing stable incremental capital to the market [3] - The focus is on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation. Key areas of interest include domestic computing power, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is beginning to focus on the potential for a sustained appreciation of the RMB, which could influence asset allocation strategies [1] - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, leading to increased investor interest in these sectors [1] - Key sectors to watch under a strengthening RMB include aviation, gas, and paper industries driven by short-term muscle memory, as well as upstream resources, consumer goods, and services influenced by profit margin changes [1] Group 2 - The 2026 spring market is anticipated to be active, with a focus on non-mainstream sectors such as policy themes and high-dividend stocks, while the mainline structure (AI industry chain, cyclical stocks) may have limited upward potential [2] - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is forming, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, indicating stable incremental capital for the market [3] - The A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, driven by clear mid-term policy and liquidity expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes, with a potential upward trend as investor sentiment improves [4] - The focus for A-share industry allocation includes dividend value, cyclical recovery, and thematic hotspots, particularly in metals, non-bank financials, and AI sectors [4] - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with attention on potential signals for a small rally around the New Year [5][6] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a structural trend change, with significant discrepancies in expectations for consumption, non-bank finance, and technology sectors as 2026 approaches [10][11] - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and structural policy incentives [12] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive structural opportunities, particularly in AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology sectors [12]

中信建投研报称，短期A股波动主要受外部环境影响，如美股AI泡沫疑虑和日本央行加息，目前美股AI 核心公司股价已经企稳，日本央行加息落地后续影响有限，A股有望和全球股市一起共振上行。岁末年 初，A股行业配置关注三条线索：红利价值、布局景气、主题热点。行业重点关注：有色（银、铜、 锡、钨）、港股高股息、非银、AI（液冷、光通信）、新能源（储能、固态电池）、创新药、银行 等。主题重点关注：海南（免税）、核电、冰雪旅游。 ...

国有大行"红包雨"来临！12月12日晚，交通银行发布公告称，该行将按照普通股每股派发0.1563元（含税）派发2025年中期现金股息，A股派息日预计为 2025年12月25日。在此之前，中国银行与建设银行已经于12月11日完成中期A股分红发放；工商银行和农业银行则公告定于12月15日分红派息；邮储银行则 拟于2026年1月12日分红派息，相关方案仍有待本月召开的临时股东大会审议通过。 值得一提的是，今年国有行中期分红时间较去年明显提前。去年六大国有行中期分红均在1月份，最早的为2025年1月7日（工商银行），最晚的则是2025年1 月24日（交通银行）。相比之下，今年中期分红派息日明显提前，有银行甚至提前了1个多月。 | 银行 | 每 10 股派发红利 | 分红总额 | 今年中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (税前) | (亿元) | | | 建设银行 | 1.858 元 | 486.0535 | 2025 年 | | 中国银行 | 1.094 元 | 352.5004 | 2025 年 | | 工商银行 | 1.414 元 | 503.9584 | 2025 年 | | 农 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月11日消息，三大股指涨跌不一，沪指、深成指早盘弱势震荡半日收跌。截至午间收盘，红利低波 ETF（512890）小幅回调0.09%，报1.175元，换手率1.08%，成交额2.69亿元，成交规模居同类ETF首 位。 | | 1.175 -0.001 -0.09% | | | 红利低波ETF ① | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 512890 | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:30:15 交易中 查看L2全景 | | | | | | | | | 净值走势 | | 华泰柏瑞红利低波ETF | रेस | 4.54% 120日 | -0.34% | | | | | 委比 | 9.10% 要注 | 54406 | 5日 | -1.92% 250日 | 8.20% | | | | | 率三 | 1.178 | 43453 | 实时申购质回信息 | 申购 | 12-0 | | | | | 本一 | 1.177 | ...

Group 1 - High dividend assets such as banks, coal, and insurance stocks showed strong performance in the morning session, with the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index rising by 1.2%, the CSI Dividend Value Index increasing by 1.0%, and the CSI Dividend Index up by 0.7% as of midday close [1][5] - The composition of stocks with moderate dividend payout ratios, positive growth in earnings per share, high dividend yields, and low volatility reflects the overall performance of A-share listed companies, with the banking, transportation, and construction decoration sectors accounting for over 65% [5] - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, which tracks 50 liquid stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that have a history of continuous dividends and moderate payout ratios, saw an increase of 0.6% as of midday close, with financial, industrial, and energy sectors making up over 65% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The heavy stockholding ratio of public funds in the utility sector reached a historical low of 0.31% in Q3 2025, down 0.78 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a decline in sector allocation [2][6][18] - The electricity holding ratio is 0.29%, also down 0.78 percentage points from the previous quarter, with the sector's allocation ranking dropping significantly [19] - The sub-sectors of electricity holdings include thermal power (45.77%), hydropower (27.23%), nuclear power (2.72%), and renewable energy (24.15%), with varying changes in their respective ratios [19] Summary by Relevant Sections Thermal Power - The thermal power sector saw a decline in holdings due to increased market risk appetite and profit-taking after mid-year performance [7][27] - Despite the overall decline, some companies like Baoneng New Energy and Guangzhou Development received institutional increases, highlighting their dividend attractiveness [27][28] - The long-term outlook for thermal power remains positive with expected price increases starting in 2026 [28] Hydropower - Hydropower holdings decreased significantly due to weak market sentiment and reduced water inflow in major rivers [8][38] - Despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term value of hydropower assets is still considered strong, with attractive valuations [38] - As of October 31, the expected dividend yield of Changjiang Electric reached the 93.5th percentile compared to ten-year government bonds, indicating strong dividend value [38] Renewable Energy Operations - The renewable energy sector experienced a notable decline in holdings, primarily due to weak pricing mechanisms and short-term performance pressures [9][44] - However, quality operators like Zhongmin Energy and Longyuan Power received market increases, reflecting a preference for undervalued, high-alpha stocks [44] - The sector is entering a new phase of high-quality development, and long-term investment value remains promising [44] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power holdings fell to 2.72%, influenced by market risk appetite and weaker mid-year performance [10] - The expected strengthening of thermal power pricing is seen as a stabilizing factor for nuclear power's long-term value [10]